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The Santa Claus Rally, a seasonal phenomenon observed in global financial markets, has long captivated investors and analysts. Defined as the upward movement in stock prices during the last five trading days of December and the first two of January, this rally has historically served as a barometer of market sentiment and a potential harbinger of broader trends. As 2026 approaches, the interplay between this seasonal pattern and macroeconomic forces-particularly Federal Reserve policy and inflation-demands closer scrutiny. <h3>Historical Performance and Statistical Significance</h3>Since 1950, the S&amp;P 500 has generated an average return of 1.3% during the Santa Claus Rally period, with positive outcomes occurring 79% of the time, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Claus_rally">significantly outperforming the average for a seven-day period</a>. This trend is reinforced by reduced trading volumes during the holidays, which <a href="https://www.lpl.com/research/blog/santa-claus-rally-in-jeopardy.html">often dampen volatility</a> and create a conducive environment for price gains. However, recent years have introduced anomalies. The 2024-2025 period marked a historic "reverse Santa Claus rally," <a href="https://appreciatewealth.com/blog/why-the-2025-santa-rally-is-different-from-the-previous-ones">characterized by selling pressure</a> between Christmas and New Year's, underscoring the influence of macroeconomic conditions such as Fed rate-cutting decisions and inflationary trends. Despite these deviations, <a href="https://www.lpl.com/research/blog/santa-claus-rally-in-jeopardy.html">long-term data from 1980 onward reveals</a> that the S&amp;P 500 has gained in approximately 73% of Santa Claus rally periods, with an average return of 1.1%. Notably, <a href="https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/chart-suggests-santa-rallies-typically-150806107.html">nearly 100% of December's average return</a> since 1950 has occurred in the latter half of the month, suggesting that the rally's strength often emerges late in the year. <img src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/aigc/hxcmp/images/compress-qwen_generated_1766880006825.jpg.png" style="max-width:100%;"/> <h3>Predictive Power and 2026 Outlook</h3>The Santa Claus Rally's historical reliability as a sentiment indicator has made it a focal point for forecasting annual performance. For instance, <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/santa-claus-rally-alert-could-090500290.html">in 12 of 17 years</a> following a Santa Claus rally between 1999 and 2000, the S&amp;P 500 recorded gains, often in double digits. If a rally materializes in 2025, it could signal another strong year for the S&amp;P 500 in 2026, <a href="https://www.gomarkets.com/en-au/articles/riding-the-santa-claus-rally-the-seasonal-surge-that-moves-markets">with some analysts projecting</a> the index could reach 7,700. Yet, the predictive power of the rally is not absolute. Elevated bond yields, even after rate cuts, and uncertainties around inflation remain critical risks. <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/santa-claus-rally-alert-could-090500290.html">The Federal Reserve's progress toward its 2% inflation target</a> remains incomplete, and the likelihood of faster rate cuts in 2026 has diminished. Additionally, <a href="https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/will-santa-claus-rally-set-strong-2026-heres-my-take-year-end-window">the nomination of a new Fed Chairman</a> could introduce volatility, complicating market dynamics. <h3>Macroeconomic Context and Investor Considerations</h3>While the Santa Claus Rally is often driven by low trading volumes and institutional repositioning, its outcomes are increasingly shaped by broader economic narratives. For 2026, the interplay between seasonal optimism and macroeconomic fundamentals will be pivotal. A rally in 2025 could reflect improved sentiment about Fed policy and inflation control, but investors must remain cautious. As one analysis notes, "<a href="https://money.com/santa-claus-rally-stock-market/">even a successful Santa Claus Rally</a> does not guarantee positive returns when market fundamentals are underpinned by uncertainty." <visualization dataurl="https://cdn.ainvest.com/news/visual/visual_components/viz_w0ge2cfl.json"></visualization> <h3>Conclusion</h3>The Santa Claus Rally remains a compelling, if imperfect, indicator of market direction. For 2026, its implications hinge on whether macroeconomic conditions align with historical patterns. While the rally's historical success rate and correlation with strong January and annual returns are encouraging, investors should balance seasonal optimism with a critical assessment of inflation, Fed policy, and global economic risks. As the calendar turns to December 2025, the market's response to these forces will offer valuable clues about the year ahead.

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<h3 style="text-align: start">The only list you&#39;ll need to summarize the important events of the last 12 months. 😊</h3>The economy weakened. The biggest and most worrisome change has been a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/us-jobs-report-november-retail-sales" target='__blank'>flatlining job market</a>. Here’s a snapshot of the economy in 2025: <img data-json="{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/2025Summary_a936d52c1766765946938.jpg&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}]}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/2025Summary_a936d52c1766765946938.jpg" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" />The stock market performed well. The S&amp;P 500 index <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-wild-2025-roller-140000599.html" target='__blank'>rose about 17% for the year</a>, after a 23% gain in 2024. Stock values are very high, which has prompted worries of a bubble that might burst. But some analysts say strong earnings validate high valuations. Stock gains are boosting the wealth of the shareholder class and keeping overall spending levels solid.“Affordability” became a political buzzword. The “<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/04/poll-americans-trump-voters-affordability-crisis-00674747" target='__blank'>affordability crisis</a>” isn’t new. It’s part of a long-term trend of worsening wealth and income inequality, plus the burden of elevated inflation during the last few years. But it became a handy catch-phrase in 2025 for Americans’ struggles with the high cost of rent, food, health care, electricity and other things. President Trump tried to capitalize on the trend by claiming to be “<a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-crowns-himself-affordability-president-204122859.html" target='__blank'>the affordability president</a>,” but then he changed tactics and began saying “<a href="https://www.npr.org/2025/12/11/nx-s1-5639957/trump-affordability-hoax-economy-midterms" target='__blank'>affordability is a hoax</a>.”[More: <a href="https://www.thepinpointpress.com/p/its-not-just-affordability-trump" target='__blank'>It’s not just affordability. Trump has a jobs problem, too</a>]Markets made peace with the Trump tariffs. Trump has raised the average tax on imports from 2.4% to around 17%. Stocks have risen and the economy has continued to grow. But in April, when Trump pushed the average tariff all the way up to 28%, stocks tanked and other market signals flashed danger. Trump reacted by lowering his tariffs to levels most companies seem to be able to live with. A nice stock-market recovery ensued.<img data-json="{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/image_001114431766766146068.jpg&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}]}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/image_001114431766766146068.jpg" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" />Artificial intelligence boomed. Fourteen percent of the world’s population, or 1.2 billion people, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-fastest-tech-in-history-microsoft-warns-billions-left-out-2025-10" target='__blank'>use AI regularly, according to Microsoft</a>. Companies worldwide invested <a href="https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2025-09-17-gartner-says-worldwide-ai-spending-will-total-1-point-5-trillion-in-2025#:~:text=Continuous%20Demand%20for%20AI%20Is,infrastructure%20(see%20Table%201)." target='__blank'>$1.5 trillion in AI in 2025</a>, more than doubling the <a href="https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2025-ai-index-report/economy" target='__blank'>total investment to date</a>. By some accounts, AI is taking hold faster than electricity or digital technology, which both transformed the world economy. Investors in 2025 had occasional nervous fits over whether all the spending will produce profits to match. But to the big companies in the AI race, they can’t afford not to spend.Trump deportations cut into labor force growth. The labor force grew by 2% in 2024. But in 2025, labor-force growth slowed to just 0.5%, largely because of Trump’s aggressive effort to deport undocumented migrants. That has led to a shortage of workers in construction, agriculture, hospitality and other industries. Worker shortages tend to raise prices.[More: <a href="https://www.thepinpointpress.com/p/the-trump-tariffs-go-splat?r=e0w9w&amp;utm_campaign=post&amp;utm_medium=web&amp;triedRedirect=true" target='__blank'>The Trump tariffs go splat</a>]The ”DOGE” chainsaw created new risks. One agency shrunk as part of the “DOGE” effort to slash the federal bureaucracy is <a href="https://www.nextgov.com/cybersecurity/2025/10/multiple-cisa-divisions-targeted-shutdown-layoffs-people-familiar-say/408773/" target='__blank'>CISA</a>, which <a href="https://cyberscoop.com/us-cyber-readiness-crisis-f5-breach-cisa-job-cuts-shutdown-op-ed/" target='__blank'>guards against foreign cyberattacks on the United States</a>. The FBI has reportedly scaled back terrorist tracking. If a preventable incident harms Americans or damages the economy, blame is likely to fall on Trump’s federal cutbacks.The US lost its last AAA credit rating. Moody’s became the last major rating agency to <a href="https://ratings.moodys.com/ratings-news/443154" target='__blank'>knock the US government from its top tier</a>. “Persistent, large fiscal deficits will drive the government’s debt and interest burden higher,” Moody’s explained. “The US fiscal performance is likely to deteriorate relative to its own past and compared to other highly-rated sovereigns.”More from Rick Newman <a href="https://www.thepinpointpress.com/" target='__blank'>The Pinpoint Press</a><ul><li style="text-align: start"> <a href="https://www.thepinpointpress.com/p/the-pinpoint-quiz-what-the-heck-happened" target='__blank'>The Pinpoint Quiz: What the heck happened in 2025?</a></li><li style="text-align: start"><a href="https://www.thepinpointpress.com/p/the-pinpoint-quiz-what-the-heck-happened" target='__blank'></a> <a href="https://www.thepinpointpress.com/p/introducing-the-pinpoint-quiz" target='__blank'>Introducing the Pinpoint Quiz</a> </li><li style="text-align: start"> <a href="https://www.thepinpointpress.com/p/a-drop-in-inflation-wont-solve-the" target='__blank'>A drop in inflation won&#39;t solve the affordability problem</a> </li></ul>More Trump tax cuts pushed the national debt even higher. The tax cuts Trump signed into law in July will <a href="https://www.crfb.org/blogs/30-year-cost-obbba" target='__blank'>add around $4 trillion to the national debt</a>. Those tax cuts will provide some economic stimulus that boosts certain parts of the economy during the next few years. They will also cut food and medical benefits for some poorer Americans, making the affordability crisis worse for those unlucky folks.Ukraine launched meaningful attacks inside Russia. Ukraine isn’t winning the ghastly war, but innovative efforts to hurt Russian dictator Vladimir Putin in his backyard have bolstered morale and helped keep Ukraine in the fight. Trump’s efforts to ink a peace deal have failed because Putin will only stop the war if he gets what he wants—much of Ukraine—or the cost of the war becomes too much for him to bear.Israel became the dominant power in the Middle East. Its combat jets <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/fastthinking/the-big-lessons-from-12-days-of-war-with-iran/" target='__blank'>flew unimpeded over archrival Iran</a> while its operatives assassinated several Iranian nuclear scientists. The <a href="https://www.cfr.org/article/guide-trumps-twenty-point-gaza-peace-deal" target='__blank'>Trump-brokered peace deal regarding Gaza</a> didn’t exactly stop the fighting there, but it brought hostages and hostage remains back to Israel and may be a step toward the reconstruction of Gaza.There was no obvious blowback to the US attack on Iran. Many critics worried that Trump was kicking a hornet’s nest when he authorized American bombers to aid Israeli jets in the <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2025-07/news/israel-and-us-strike-irans-nuclear-program" target='__blank'>June attack on Iranian nuclear facilities</a>. Instead, Iran’s theocratic regime seems embarrassed and chastened. There could still be retaliation, and it may never be clear how much damage those strikes caused. But Trump gambled and it may have paid off.Trump imposed “state capitalism.” Under Trump’s direction, the US government has <a href="https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/online-analysis/2025/09/americas-quiet-turn-towards-state-capitalism/" target='__blank'>acquired ownership stakes</a> in Intel, US Steel and several companies that mine or process rare earth minerals. It also made a deal with chipmakers Nvidia and AMD to <a href="https://taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/trouble-trumps-deal-nvidia-and-amd-its-export-tax" target='__blank'>take a 15% cut of certain sales to China</a>. None of these deals was necessary to protect the US economy or keep a corporate titan solvent. Trump is seeking control over certain segments of corporate America and deliberately politicizing what ought to be mostly business decisions.The Charlie Kirk shooting normalized political violence. The conservative activist gunned down in Utah on September 10 seems like just another victim of gun violence that <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/03/05/what-the-data-says-about-gun-deaths-in-the-us/" target='__blank'>kills nearly 47,000 Americans every year</a>. The nation is so numb to massacres that no amount of killing seems able to move the needle toward more rational gun laws.A Muslim socialist became New York City’s next mayor. Zohran Mamdani’s surprise win showed that an earnest politician promising to lower living costs can command voters’ attention, no matter how improbable his candidacy might seem. Delivering on his promises will be tough, though.<img data-json="{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Mamdani_e0b0fc751766766491354.jpg&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}]}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Mamdani_e0b0fc751766766491354.jpg" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" />The crypto rally fizzled. Trump promised friendlier regulation toward cryptocurrencies and their ilk, which sent prices soaring in the first half of 2025. But pro-crypto legislation has <a href="https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/us-crypto-industry-cheers-2025-wins-but-party-may-fizzle-next-year-4414485" target='__blank'>sputtered in Congress</a> and market demand seemed to dry up in the second half of the year. Bitcoin hit a record high of around $123,000 in August, but it’s ending the year at around $88,000—about 6% lower than it started.[More: <a href="https://www.thepinpointpress.com/p/let-mamdani-give-free-buses-and-government" target='__blank'>Let Mamdani give free buses and government food stores a try</a>]Warren Buffett retired. The legendary investor and head of Berkshire Hathaway said he’s finally hanging up his hat at the age of 95. Buffett didn’t just make money year after year. He remained deeply relevant into his 90s due to his timeless insights on business and financial markets and his refreshing confidence in America. Fellow investor Seth Klarman recently wrote a <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/12/warren-buffett-retirement/685294/" target='__blank'>this digestible summary of what makes Buffett so special</a>.Epstein became a forever scandal. Interest in the secrets of the dead sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein grew so intense that Congress passed a law in November ordering the Justice Dept. to publish nearly everything it ever gathered in years of investigating the disgraced financier. The biggest unanswered question is whether Trump—an Epstein buddy for years—ever had sexual encounters with the underage women Epstein illegally trafficked. There’s nothing on that in the first batches of documents released. But more are on the way, and the Epstein scandal might still be titillating voyeurs—and vexing Trump—when pundits draw up their 2026 look back lists a year from now.<img data-json="{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/image (1)_374cc14a1766766862511.jpg&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}]}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/image (1)_374cc14a1766766862511.jpg" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" /><a href="https://www.thepinpointpress.com/" target='__blank'>Subscribe to The Pinpoint Press </a><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ug5g!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb71ddaed-7017-41ac-9604-9e7e7a7ba07f_1536x1024.png" target='__blank'></a>
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<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FzBMcAWoqrg" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Short Sellers_75cf99011766783109376.jpg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/FzBMcAWoqrg&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Short Sellers_75cf99011766783109376.jpg&quot;}"></video>U.S. stocks closed modestly lower Friday in thin post-holiday trading, as declines in energy markets weighed on sentiment while gold prices climbed and volatility edged higher.The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 20.19 points, or 0.04%, to 48,711.0. The S&amp;P 500 fell 2.10 points, or 0.03%, to 6,929.95, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 20.21 points, or 0.09%, to 23,593.1. Small-capitalization stocks underperformed, with the Russell 2000 dropping 1.32 points, or 0.52%, to 251.39.Trading volumes were subdued as many institutional investors remained sidelined following the Christmas holiday. Market breadth tilted negative, with declining stocks outnumbering advancers across major exchanges, according to the market dashboard shown in the session data.Energy markets were a notable source of pressure. U.S. crude oil futures for February delivery fell sharply, sliding $1.62, or 2.78%, to $56.73 a barrel. The drop pushed oil prices toward the lower end of their recent trading range and weighed on energy-related equities during the session.In contrast, gold prices advanced, reinforcing their role as a defensive asset in quiet markets. February gold futures rose $59.00, or 1.31%, to $4,561.80, outperforming most major asset classes on the day. The move came as equity markets stalled near record highs and investors showed renewed interest in perceived safe-haven assets.Volatility also ticked higher. The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX—often referred to as Wall Street’s “fear gauge”—rose 0.26 points, or 1.93%, to 13.73. Despite the increase, volatility remained near historically low levels, underscoring the calm tone of the session even as equities drifted lower.Cryptocurrency markets weakened alongside risk assets. Bitcoin fell $616.69, or 0.70%, to $87,448.50. The digital currency remained well below its recent highs but continued to trade within a relatively narrow intraday range, according to the pricing data shown.With no major economic data releases or policy announcements, markets appeared to lack a clear catalyst. Instead, price action reflected positioning adjustments, commodity-driven sector moves, and the lingering effects of holiday-thinned liquidity.Investors now turn their attention to the final trading days of the year, when lower volumes can amplify market swings, even in the absence of fresh macroeconomic developments.

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U.S. Stocks Edge Lower After Holiday as Energy Slides and Gold Rallies



<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KoLkSx_GABk" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/MarronePlus Image_bda837c11766760930416.jpeg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/KoLkSx_GABk&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/MarronePlus Image_bda837c11766760930416.jpeg&quot;}"></video>Nvidia’s Christmas Eve <a href="https://groq.com/newsroom/groq-and-nvidia-enter-non-exclusive-inference-technology-licensing-agreement-to-accelerate-ai-inference-at-global-scale" target='__blank'>Groq deal</a> is the kind of headline that can slip through the cracks when the market is running on eggnog and skeleton crews. But it’s a meaningful strategic move — not because Nvidia suddenly “needs” help in AI, but because it’s trying to lock down the next phase of AI compute: inference at scale, especially for real-time workloads. <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20251226152/groq-execs-to-join-nvidia-as-part-of-ai-chip-licensing-deal" target='__blank'>What is the deal</a> , exactly?Despite early reporting that framed this as a $20 billion outright acquisition, the structure is more nuanced. Groq says it entered into a non-exclusive licensing agreement with Nvidia for Groq’s inference technology, and that Groq’s founder/CEO Jonathan Ross, President Sunny Madra, and other key team members will join Nvidia to help advance and scale the licensed technology. Groq also said it will continue operating as an independent company under new CEO Simon Edwards, and that GroqCloud will continue operating without interruption. (<a href="https://groq.com/newsroom/groq-and-nvidia-enter-non-exclusive-inference-technology-licensing-agreement-to-accelerate-ai-inference-at-global-scale?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'>Groq</a>)Multiple <a href="https://morethanmoore.substack.com/p/ho-ho-ho-groq-nvidia-is-a-gift" target='__blank'>third-party reports</a> cite “about $20 billion” as the price tag attached to Nvidia buying Groq assets / the arrangement, but it’s worth being precise: the public-facing documents do not disclose financial terms, and Nvidia’s CFO declined comment in reporting referenced by outlets covering the story. In other words, “$20B” is widely circulated and directionally important, but not cleanly confirmed in a definitive filing-style way. <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/groq-execs-to-join-nvidia-as-part-of-ai-chip-licensing-deal-1d155338?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a>Who is Groq and what do they do?Groq is an AI chip company founded in 2016 by engineers associated with Google’s TPU lineage, and it has positioned itself around high-performance inference — the “serving” side of AI where models generate tokens in response to user prompts. Unlike Nvidia’s GPU-centered approach (a general-purpose parallel compute workhorse), Groq has emphasized a purpose-built architecture aimed at low latency and high throughput for inference, and it has paired that with a cloud offering (GroqCloud) to make the hardware accessible without customers needing to buy and rack systems themselves. <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/groq-execs-to-join-nvidia-as-part-of-ai-chip-licensing-deal-1d155338?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a>In plain English: Groq is one of the better-known “inference challengers” — a bucket that also includes hyperscaler in-house silicon (Google TPU, Amazon Trainium/Inferentia, Microsoft Maia/Cobalt-style efforts) and specialized startups. Nvidia dominates training economics and mindshare, but inference is a broader battlefield with more viable architectures and more incentives for customers to diversify.Why would Nvidia do this?Three reasons stand out.First, inference is where the growth curve is headed. Training builds the model; inference is where the model gets used. As AI products proliferate, inference demand scales with users, queries, and real-time workloads. Nvidia can already run inference extremely well on GPUs, but the market is increasingly asking for better efficiency: lower latency, better cost per token, better power characteristics, and optimized deployment at scale.Second, it’s a defensive move against platform disintermediation. The biggest strategic threat to Nvidia isn’t “a faster chip” in isolation — it’s customers migrating meaningful workloads to alternative stacks where Nvidia’s CUDA ecosystem is less central. Analysts flagged this directly: Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon characterized the move as strategic because inference workloads are more diversified and can open the door to competition, making it rational for Nvidia to spend aggressively to cement its position as inference scales. <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/groq-execs-to-join-nvidia-as-part-of-ai-chip-licensing-deal-1d155338?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a>Third, it’s an offense move that fits Nvidia’s “AI factory” strategy. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said Nvidia plans to integrate Groq’s low-latency processors into Nvidia’s AI factory architecture to serve a broader range of inference and real-time workloads. That’s consistent with Nvidia’s push to sell systems and platforms — not just chips — where GPUs, networking, software, and orchestration combine into a vertically integrated solution. <a href="https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/nvidia-to-license-tech-from-ai-inference-chip-company-groq-hire-its-leadership/?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a>Is this Nvidia’s largest deal ever?If the ~$20B figure is accurate, then yes — by a wide margin. Nvidia’s largest traditional acquisition historically was Mellanox, announced in 2019 at roughly $6.9 billion enterprise value. (<a href="https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-to-acquire-mellanox-for-6-9-billion?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'>NVIDIA Newsroom</a>)That said, the Groq transaction is not a classic “we bought the whole company” acquisition. Groq’s own description emphasizes licensing and talent transfer while Groq remains independent. So the cleanest way to frame it is: this appears to be Nvidia’s largest-ever strategic transaction by implied value, even if it’s structured as licensing + acqui-hire rather than a full corporate acquisition. (<a href="https://groq.com/newsroom/groq-and-nvidia-enter-non-exclusive-inference-technology-licensing-agreement-to-accelerate-ai-inference-at-global-scale?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'>Groq</a>)What analysts are sayingThe early analyst read-throughs are broadly positive and, importantly, consistent across firms:Cantor reiterates Nvidia as a top pick with a $300 price target and frames the move as both offense and defense. On offense, Cantor suggests Nvidia had already been working with Groq for inference acceleration and decided Groq’s capabilities were better inside the tent. On defense, Cantor points to Groq’s low-latency, energy-efficient inference as additive to Nvidia’s full-stack system approach, especially as the next leg of AI buildout shifts toward real-time workloads like robotics and autonomy. <a href="https://www.investors.com/news/technology/nvidia-buying-ai-chip-startup-groq-in-record-20-billion-deal/?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a>Rosenblatt reiterates Buy with a $245 price target and argues licensing inference technology is strategically important to address concerns around competing accelerators (including TPU-style offerings) gaining share as inference grows. RBLT also highlights a potential longer-term angle: extending CUDA development tools to broaden adoption of Groq’s LPU-style approach across end markets. <a href="https://www.investors.com/news/technology/nvidia-buying-ai-chip-startup-groq-in-record-20-billion-deal/?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a>Bank of America reiterates Buy/top pick with a $275 price target and focuses on the “why now”: Nvidia acknowledging the shift toward inference and the possibility that specialized chips may matter more, even if GPUs remain dominant for training. BofA also flags a tradeoff — integrating a different hardware paradigm adds complexity to roadmap and pricing — but views Nvidia’s balance sheet and incumbency as advantages for turning that complexity into wider customer choice and a stronger platform. <a href="https://www.investors.com/news/technology/nvidia-buying-ai-chip-startup-groq-in-record-20-billion-deal/?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a>Does this change the semiconductor landscape?Not overnight, but it’s meaningful in two ways.One, it tightens Nvidia’s grip on the inference narrative. Even if GPUs remain the default, Nvidia is signaling that it intends to offer “best tool for the job” options inside its ecosystem rather than ceding specialized inference niches to outsiders. That makes it harder for standalone inference startups to compete on distribution and platform integration.Two, it raises the pressure on hyperscaler silicon strategies. If Groq’s technology and talent are now moving in Nvidia’s direction — and potentially becoming more interoperable with Nvidia’s software stack over time — then customers looking to diversify away from Nvidia may find fewer obvious independent alternatives with comparable maturity. In that sense, this is less about Nvidia “catching up” and more about Nvidia preventing the inference market from fragmenting in a way that weakens its platform.The punchline: training made Nvidia the king. Inference is where challengers hoped to build a republic. Nvidia just bought a lot more border control.

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The Trillion-Dollar AI Buildout Wall Street Isn’t Watching 👇<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KoLkSx_GABk" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/ePlus (1)_229f4dbf1766757467569.jpg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/KoLkSx_GABk&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/ePlus (1)_229f4dbf1766757467569.jpg&quot;}"></video>U.S. stocks traded narrowly mixed shortly after the opening bell on Friday, December 26, as investors navigated thin holiday liquidity, firm commodity prices, and elevated cross-asset signals heading into the final trading days of the year.The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 34.12 points, or 0.07%, to 48,697.00. The Nasdaq Composite edged higher by 12.83 points, or 0.05%, to 23,626.10, while the S&amp;P 500 rose 3.14 points, or 0.05%, to 6,935.19. Small-cap stocks underperformed, with the Russell 2000 down 0.76 points, or 0.30%, at 251.95.Market moves were muted in the early session, consistent with historically light volumes during the holiday period. Futures markets showed limited follow-through as investors balanced year-end positioning against sharply diverging signals from commodities, crypto assets, and volatility gauges.The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) rose to 14.09, up 0.62 points, or 4.60%, from the previous close of 13.47, indicating a modest pickup in demand for near-term equity protection despite stable index levels. The move suggested some hedging activity ahead of the turn into 2026 rather than broad risk-off positioning.In commodities, gold futures extended their rally, with February contracts trading at $4,553.30 an ounce, up $50.50, or 1.12%, shortly after the open. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-25/silver-rises-to-record-gold-near-all-time-high-as-risks-persist?srnd=homepage-americas" target='__blank'>According to Bloomberg,</a> gold’s advance has been supported by escalating geopolitical tensions, U.S. dollar weakness, elevated central-bank purchases, and inflows into exchange-traded funds. Spot gold has gained roughly 70% this year, marking one of the strongest annual performances on record for the metal.Crude oil prices were steadier. February West Texas Intermediate crude traded at $58.35 a barrel, unchanged on the session. Prices held near the lower end of the day’s $58.23–$58.88 range, reflecting a balance between geopolitical risk premiums and concerns about global demand growth.Cryptocurrency markets showed modest gains but continued to lag other risk assets. Bitcoin rose $1,348.99, or 1.54%, to $88,925.29, remaining below the psychologically important $90,000 threshold. Research notes from AInvest highlighted an unusual decoupling between equities and digital assets, with Bitcoin consolidating despite record highs in major stock benchmarks. The analysis noted that prolonged consolidation often precedes a sharp directional move, potentially setting the stage for heightened volatility in early 2026.Equity investors appeared to be largely marking time as the year draws to a close. AInvest’s year-end outlook noted that the S&amp;P 500 recently cleared a long-standing triple-top formation, suggesting underlying technical strength, even as participation remains thin during the holiday period. The divergence between large-cap benchmarks and small-cap stocks underscored lingering caution beneath the surface.Attention is expected to shift back toward fundamentals and policy expectations in the coming weeks, including the trajectory of interest rates, fiscal policy under President Donald Trump, and corporate earnings guidance for 2026. For now, markets remain range-bound, with gold and volatility providing the clearest signals of investor unease beneath otherwise calm equity indices.

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