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Which of the Magnificent Seven Has Proven Most Resilient Since the February 21 Index Adjustment?

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<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/LgOe3KVfC3w" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPEpisode20deTray_392413c31767970524541.jpeg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/LgOe3KVfC3w&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPEpisode20deTray_392413c31767970524541.jpeg&quot;}"></video>The <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm" target='__blank'>December jobs report</a> landed with the kind of “mixed, but market-moving” profile that can keep both doves and hawks busy on TV for the rest of the day. Headline nonfarm payrolls rose by 50,000, below expectations (most estimates clustered around ~70–73k) and below the downwardly revised November gain of 56,000. At the same time, the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.4% versus 4.5% expected, while wage growth ran hotter than forecast on a year-over-year basis (average hourly earnings up 3.8% vs. 3.6% expected). The result is a report that reads soft on hiring momentum, firm on labor-market tightness at the margin, and sticky on the “last mile” inflation narrative through wages.Rates told the story in real time. The initial reaction in the 10-year yield was a brief pop to 4.211%—notable as the highest level since September 4—before the broader market settled into a more two-handed interpretation: slower job creation argues for easier policy later, but hotter wages and a still-resilient unemployment rate make it harder to price an imminent easing cycle. In other words, the bond market saw the headline payroll miss, then immediately remembered wages exist. Equity futures leaned positive after the release, but the rates tape kept a cautious tone, consistent with a market that’s increasingly allergic to “higher wages, fewer cuts.”Starting with the establishment survey, payroll growth in December was modest and concentrated in the usual late-cycle stalwarts. Food services and drinking places added 27,000 jobs, health care added 21,000 (including a 16,000 gain in hospitals), and social assistance rose 17,000 (mostly in individual and family services). Retail trade, meanwhile, lost 25,000 jobs, with weakness concentrated in warehouse clubs/supercenters/general merchandise (-19,000) and food and beverage retailers (-9,000), partially offset by gains in electronics and appliance retailers (+5,000). Elsewhere, most major categories showed little change, including construction, manufacturing, professional and business services, financial activities, transportation/warehousing, and mining/energy extraction.The revisions mattered, too, and they leaned in the wrong direction for momentum. October payrolls were revised down to -173,000 from -105,000, while November was revised down to +56,000 from +64,000. Combined, October and November were 76,000 lower than previously reported. That’s not catastrophic, but it reinforces the idea that the labor market ended 2025 with a weaker hiring pulse than the early reads suggested. Zooming out, the BLS noted payroll employment rose by 584,000 in 2025—an average monthly gain of 49,000—far slower than 2024’s 168,000 average. Put simply: job growth didn’t fall off a cliff, but it definitely took the elevator down a few floors.Wages and hours were the “sticky” side of the ledger. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% m/m, right in line with expectations, but the year-over-year pace accelerated to 3.8% (above the 3.6% forecast and above the prior pace). That’s the kind of detail that makes it harder for markets to fully embrace a near-term cut story, especially with inflation still a live topic and services still sensitive to labor costs. Meanwhile, the average workweek edged down to 34.2 hours from 34.3 (manufacturing fell to 39.9 hours), which is consistent with slower labor demand without outright layoffs—classic “no-hire, no-fire” behavior.The household survey added a second layer of nuance. The unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, while the labor force participation rate edged down to 62.4%. The employment-population ratio ticked up to 59.7%. Underemployment improved: U-6 fell to 8.4% from 8.7%. But beneath the surface, longer-duration stress continues to build. The share of unemployed who have been jobless for 27 weeks or more rose to 26.0%, and the level of long-term unemployed is up 397,000 over the year. Part-time for economic reasons held at 5.3 million but is up 980,000 over the year, and the number of people not in the labor force who want a job rose 684,000 over the year to 6.2 million. This is the “softening without breaking” pattern: fewer hires, limited fires, but a growing pool of people finding it harder to get reabsorbed.Where this report really hit markets is in the policy path it implied. <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html" target='__blank'>Expectations for a Fed cut</a> in April have slipped to 52%, and that matters because, historically, the market typically doesn’t treat a cut as “real” until probabilities are comfortably above 60%. You flagged the key point: we’ve never really seen the Fed move with sub-60% odds priced—meaning the market is now effectively signaling “April is no longer the base case.” The first cut is increasingly priced for June, with the curve still implying two cuts for the year and the second one clustering around September. That’s a meaningful shift in sequencing: the market isn’t scrapping easing altogether, but it is pushing it out, and it’s doing so in a way that keeps longer-end yields sensitive to every incremental inflation/wage input.Putting it together, December’s report doesn’t scream recession, but it does validate cooling momentum. Payrolls undershot, revisions were negative, hours slipped, and hiring looks narrowly concentrated. Yet the unemployment rate improved, underemployment eased, and wages ran hot enough to keep the Fed cautious. The cleanest takeaway is that this is a late-cycle labor market: slower job creation, more friction for job seekers, and still-firm compensation trends. And for markets, that’s exactly the combination that can keep yields elevated even when the headline number disappoints—because the Fed doesn’t cut on “soft,” it cuts on “soft enough.”

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Soft Jobs, Hot Wages: The December Report That Spooked Bond Markets

<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/LgOe3KVfC3w" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPEpisode20deTray_934661001767964578353.jpeg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/LgOe3KVfC3w&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPEpisode20deTray_934661001767964578353.jpeg&quot;}"></video>Markets have circled Friday on the calendar because it’s one of those rare “two clocks” sessions: the economic clock (jobs) and the legal clock (Supreme Court) can both reset expectations in real time. The <a href="https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2026/01/supreme-courts-review-ieepa-tariffs-why-it-matters-gold-market" target='__blank'>Supreme Court</a> has designated Friday as an opinion day, and on opinion days the justices take the bench at 10:00 a.m. ET, which is the first window when rulings can drop. <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/2026/01/scotustoday-for-wednesday-january-7/?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a> In practice, that means the market’s “headline risk window” is roughly 10:00–11:00 a.m. ET (and occasionally later if multiple opinions are released or coverage filters out slowly), but 10:00 a.m. is the key starting gun. <a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/supreme-court-opinion-day-tariff-ruling-3bbd6ed9?gaa_at=eafs&amp;gaa_n=AWEtsqcRYhMcOmtAQRDkXlkbTkVZSwm7h8euUTDAABZkb7DZTXrxO6GH4dds&amp;gaa_sig=PIzKq0RKumzlCqfK07awQEyPSRSru1LmDLbTPCvXmdjF_odZddVpgwWoBe-Asky48LaJdLSsZdA4XQqcJKyLQA%3D%3D&amp;gaa_ts=696101d0&amp;utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a>The <a href="https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2026/did-supreme-court-just-signal-fate-trumps-tariffs" target='__blank'>core expectations</a> going into the IEEPA decision is straightforward: investors are leaning toward the Court striking down (or sharply limiting) the administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 to impose sweeping tariffs without Congress. Reuters notes that justices across the ideological spectrum expressed doubts during oral arguments, and the case is widely viewed as a major test of presidential power. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/supreme-court-set-issue-rulings-trump-awaits-fate-tariffs-2026-01-09/?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a>Prediction markets are telling a similar story (low probability of a full “upheld” outcome), and stock price action has reflected that consensus—particularly in tariff-sensitive consumer and retail names that have quietly been trading as if relief is more likely than not. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/countries-industries-most-exposed-trumps-ieepa-based-tariffs-2026-01-08/?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a>That said, the base case is not necessarily a clean, cinematic “tariffs: illegal, the end.” A meaningful risk is a narrow or “mishmash” ruling that trims the scope (or the process) without producing immediate clarity on unwind mechanics, refund obligations, or how quickly the executive branch can pivot to other tariff authorities. This is exactly why markets may be pricing the direction correctly but still underpricing the plumbing: what happens to cash, timing, and enforcement. Even if the Court strikes the IEEPA framework, the administration could move quickly under other trade statutes. <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-supreme-court-could-rule-on-trumps-tariffs-as-soon-as-friday-heres-how-it-could-play-out-d99bbb79?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a>If IEEPA gets rolled back, the obvious next question is: what tools does the White House still have? Quite a few—just fewer that are both broad and instantaneous.<li>Section 232 (Trade Expansion Act of 1962): allows tariffs tied to national security after a Commerce Department investigation. It’s powerful, but it’s inherently more sector-specific (steel, autos, semiconductors, etc.) and procedurally heavier than IEEPA. <a href="https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48435?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a></li><li>Section 301 (Trade Act of 1974): allows tariffs aimed at unfair foreign trade practices after a USTR investigation. It’s typically country- and practice-specific rather than “everyone gets a surcharge.” <a href="https://taxfoundation.org/blog/presidential-authority-congress-tariffs/?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a></li><li>Section 122 (Trade Act of 1974): permits a temporary import surcharge or quotas to address serious balance-of-payments issues, but it’s capped (commonly referenced as up to 15%) and time-limited (often cited as up to 150 days), which makes it more of a bridge than a permanent tariff regime. <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-supreme-court-could-rule-on-trumps-tariffs-as-soon-as-friday-heres-how-it-could-play-out-d99bbb79?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a></li><li>Section 338 (Tariff Act of 1930): a rarely used “retaliation for discrimination” tool that can, on paper, allow substantial duties on imports from countries that discriminate against U.S. commerce. The lack of modern precedent is the feature and the bug: it’s legally available, but it invites litigation and uncertainty. <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-tariffs-court-ruling-ieepa/?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a></li><li>Standard trade remedies: anti-dumping and countervailing duties, plus safeguard-style tools in targeted circumstances. These are slower and more technical, but they can still meaningfully raise effective tariff burdens in specific categories.</li>The net is that “tariffs go away” is not the same thing as “tariffs are gone.” If IEEPA is struck down, the administration can still reconstitute a meaningful tariff footprint—just through narrower channels that are harder to deploy as a single, universal negotiating lever. <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-supreme-court-could-rule-on-trumps-tariffs-as-soon-as-friday-heres-how-it-could-play-out-d99bbb79?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a>So, who benefits most if the IEEPA tariffs are rolled back?The biggest relative winners tend to be the sectors that (a) import a lot of finished goods, (b) run high inventory turnover, and (c) have limited ability to pass cost shocks through without demand damage.Retail and consumer discretionary sit at the top of that list. If tariffs come off, it relieves input costs, reduces pricing pressure, and potentially improves gross margins or promotional flexibility. That’s why investors have treated certain large retailers as “quiet beneficiaries” in the run-up, with price action implying a market expectation that the Court clips the tariff regime. <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-supreme-court-could-rule-on-trumps-tariffs-as-soon-as-friday-heres-how-it-could-play-out-d99bbb79?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a> Consumer staples can also benefit, especially where packaging and commodity-linked inputs (think metals like aluminum) were pushed higher by tariff-induced supply-chain friction. <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-supreme-court-could-rule-on-trumps-tariffs-as-soon-as-friday-heres-how-it-could-play-out-d99bbb79?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a>Industrials with import-heavy components and complex supply chains can also see a meaningful tailwind, particularly where contracts were written assuming the tariff regime stays in place. Autos and auto parts are a second-order beneficiary for similar reasons—less cost pressure in parts, electronics, and materials—though the magnitude depends on what remains via Section 232 or other targeted tools.Housing-linked and rate-sensitive consumer areas can get a lift as well, not only from reduced input costs but from the “affordability narrative” if tariff pressure is perceived as easing. The caveat is that these groups will be trading the whole bundle (jobs + yields + tariff decision), so the same sector can rally on margin relief and then wobble on a rate spike.Refunds are the underappreciated make-or-break detail because they’re where a legal ruling turns into real money. If tariffs are ruled unlawful, importers will pursue refunds on duties already paid, and estimates for potential refunds have been discussed in very large numbers (Reuters has referenced figures around $150 billion in play). <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/countries-industries-most-exposed-trumps-ieepa-based-tariffs-2026-01-08/?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a> This matters for companies because refunds can be a direct boost to cash flow (and in some cases earnings, depending on accounting treatment and whether costs were already passed through). It also matters for the government because refunds (and reduced future tariff revenue) can punch a hole in expected receipts, complicate budget math, and potentially raise questions about fiscal financing at the margin.That fiscal angle is why bond yields are such a tricky, two-sided trade around the ruling.If the Court strikes down IEEPA tariffs, the near-term inflation impulse could be perceived as lower (less tariff pass-through, less supply-chain friction), which is directionally supportive for lower yields—especially at the front end if it nudges the Fed’s reaction function toward more comfort on inflation. That’s the “good news = lower inflation = lower yields” storyline.But the same ruling can be read as fiscally negative: less tariff revenue going forward and potentially large refunds going back. That can raise the term premium and pressure long-end yields higher, particularly if investors conclude the deficit trajectory worsens and Treasury supply risks increase. Reuters and other coverage have underscored that refunds and diminished tariff revenue are a central market consideration. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/countries-industries-most-exposed-trumps-ieepa-based-tariffs-2026-01-08/?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a>Put differently: the ruling can be disinflationary and still bearish for long bonds if it erodes revenue and increases net issuance expectations. The curve reaction may matter more than the headline yield print: a front-end rally alongside long-end pressure (bear steepening risk) is not an impossible outcome.Finally, on the “not front page, but don’t ignore it” side: voting rights. The Court has other major opinions pending, including cases touching the Voting Rights Act and redistricting—Louisiana v. Callais is one of the focal points in the current cycle. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/with-trumps-tariffs-line-us-supreme-court-plans-rulings-friday-2026-01-06/?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a> The timing is important: many court watchers expect big election-law rulings to cluster later in the term (the late-June wave), and even if the Court issues something earlier, there are real-world calendar constraints for map redraws before November. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/with-trumps-tariffs-line-us-supreme-court-plans-rulings-friday-2026-01-06/?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a>From a market perspective, this is more of a second-derivative political catalyst than an immediate tape-mover. But it’s relevant because control of the House is part of the market’s base-case narrative into November. A ruling that materially changes the redistricting landscape could alter probabilities around House control at the margin, which then filters into expectations on policy areas investors care about (energy permitting and nuclear, digital assets, bank regulation, and various industrial policy levers). It’s not today’s trade—more like a headline you tag and keep in the “June risk” folder.Bottom line: the market’s working assumption is that the Court limits IEEPA tariffs, with the first real drop-dead time for that information starting at 10:00 a.m. ET when the justices take the bench. <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/2026/01/scotustoday-for-wednesday-january-7/?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a>The bigger market swing may come less from the direction of the ruling and more from the details: the scope of what’s invalidated, what happens to refunds, and how quickly the administration shifts to Plan B tariff authorities. If you want to be fully prepared, treat 10:00–11:00 a.m. as the headline blast radius—and remember that the second shoe is the workaround.

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10AM SCOTUS Shock? Trump’s Tariffs Hang in the Balance (And So Do Bond Yields)

U.S. job growth slowed in December, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 50,000, falling short of the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 73,000. Despite the softer-than-expected hiring pace, the unemployment rate edged lower to 4.4% from 4.5%, underscoring continued resilience in the labor market even as momentum cooled toward year-end.<img data-json="{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;3fdd103e-27c5-4ffe-b806-995464df8906&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}],&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/87f8b029-8571-4d09-9e9e-5b108082da76_Screenshot0109-2136_df9d00fc1767965823478.jpg&quot;}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/87f8b029-8571-4d09-9e9e-5b108082da76_Screenshot0109-2136_df9d00fc1767965823478.jpg" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" />According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, payroll growth was concentrated in food services and drinking places, health care, and social assistance, while retail trade shed jobs. Employment gains remained modest overall, reflecting a labor market that has stabilized after a much stronger expansion earlier in the cycle.The household survey showed little change across key labor metrics. The number of unemployed stood at 7.5 million, while labor force participation held steady at 62.4% and the employment-population ratio remained unchanged at 59.7%. Long-term unemployment was largely flat in December but rose over the year, now accounting for 26% of total unemployment. Part-time employment for economic reasons also stayed elevated, highlighting ongoing slack beneath the headline figures.Wage growth remained firm but showed signs of moderation. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month over month to $37.02, bringing the year-over-year increase to 3.8%. The average workweek edged lower to 34.2 hours, suggesting some softening in labor demand at the margin.Revisions to prior months further reinforced the cooling trend, with October and November payrolls revised down by a combined 76,000. On a full-year basis, payroll employment rose by 584,000 in 2025, a sharp slowdown from the 2.0 million jobs added in 2024, signaling that the labor market is transitioning from expansion toward a more subdued, late-cycle phase.

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U.S. Payrolls Rise 50,000 in December, Below Expectations but Unemployment Remains Solid

The tactical bullish stance outlined Tuesday has largely been verified, with both the S&amp;P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average pushing to fresh intraday highs on Wednesday. However, those gains failed to hold into the close, as fatigue within the AI trade began to weigh more visibly on broader sentiment. Crypto markets briefly benefited from renewed risk appetite but quickly slipped back into consolidation mode, reinforcing a more cautious tone across speculative assets. Even so, the overall technical structure in equities remains constructive, downside pressure appears limited, and conditions favor selective positioning rather than wholesale risk reduction. In this environment, individual opportunities matter more than index-level exposure, and two to three stocks now stand out as more attractive vehicles for near-term tactical trades.From a technical standpoint, major U.S. indices are showing early signs of strain without signaling an outright breakdown. Both the S&amp;P 500 and the Dow Jones briefly traded at record levels on Wednesday before reversing, reflecting hesitation rather than panic. The S&amp;P 500 remains roughly 1% below the 7,000 psychological threshold and is now flirting with what could evolve into a double-top formation. That said, the index continues to print higher lows, suggesting that bullish structure has weakened but not collapsed. Momentum has slowed, yet price action still points to consolidation rather than preparation for a sharp reversal. <img data-json="{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;c51a1336-a3e1-440a-94fa-292aa81a84e0&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}],&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/e7b0632b-6b39-49f8-97d6-87f81dbda0c3_SPX_64537aaa1767950719770.png&quot;}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/e7b0632b-6b39-49f8-97d6-87f81dbda0c3_SPX_64537aaa1767950719770.png" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" />The Nasdaq 100 presents a more challenging picture. As observed earlier in the week, the index is pressing against a potential triple-top, a pattern that historically signals rising resistance. While a higher-low structure is also present, the lack of a decisive breakout keeps confidence fragile. Until leadership within technology reasserts itself, aggressive index-level long exposure appears premature.<img data-json="{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;c9aa06ec-014f-4853-b02b-a6ee9dec068d&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}],&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/ddc230ce-9f2b-4c00-b421-9b3087e031f8_QQQ_5e21b71d1767950725773.png&quot;}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/ddc230ce-9f2b-4c00-b421-9b3087e031f8_QQQ_5e21b71d1767950725773.png" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" />Crypto markets are exhibiting similar symptoms. Bitcoin and other major tokens remain firmly within the risk-sensitive category and are therefore responding to the same hesitation affecting high-beta equities. Bitcoin briefly pushed above the $93,000 level before slipping back toward the critical $90,000 zone, where prices have once again settled into consolidation. Without a clear break higher, it is difficult to argue that a new bullish phase has fully emerged. This mirrors the Nasdaq&#39;s struggle, where the absence of catalysts limits follow-through. As long as crypto remains range-bound, it is unlikely to provide the momentum boost that previously helped propel equities higher. Instead, both markets appear trapped in a waiting phase, searching for confirmation before committing to the next directional move.<img data-json="{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;f657d4e5-df00-4e21-9e22-c8bcb6646843&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}],&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/5705477b-98e4-412e-afbe-b7be05053d72_btc_2e6cd07d1767950735883.png&quot;}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/5705477b-98e4-412e-afbe-b7be05053d72_btc_2e6cd07d1767950735883.png" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" />Despite this broader struggle, the near-term downside across risk assets still looks contained. Economic conditions remain stable, fundamentals have not deteriorated meaningfully, and liquidity indicators are not signaling stress. As a result, sharp drawdowns appear unlikely in the immediate horizon. What has changed is leadership. Rather than broad participation, opportunities are becoming increasingly stock-specific, favoring names with clearer technical setups and identifiable catalysts. This shift makes selective exposure and portfolio diversification more important than chasing index strength at elevated levels.McDonald&#39;s is one such candidate. The fast-food giant recently staged a convincing rebound from its session lows, with short-term signals beginning to turn higher. The three-day moving average is attempting to cross above the seven- and ten-day measures, while a higher-low pattern has already formed. As a cyclical yet defensive name, McDonald&#39;s benefits from a resilient consumer backdrop while offering relative insulation if growth expectations soften. With economic data remaining broadly supportive, the stock&#39;s technical recovery aligns well with its fundamental stability, making it a reasonable candidate for a tactical long position.<img data-json="{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;083f3e30-5d49-4a0a-be43-373aea679b62&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}],&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/d18c2717-bffc-48fd-a449-6587e4fc20fe_mcd_29462faf1767950749668.png&quot;}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/d18c2717-bffc-48fd-a449-6587e4fc20fe_mcd_29462faf1767950749668.png" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" />Shopify presents a more growth-oriented opportunity. The stock has recovered from a double-bottom formation and is now showing improving momentum, with the shortest moving average firmly above its near-term counterparts. Optimism has been reinforced by expanding collaboration with ChatGPT and rising expectations for increased advertising activity tied to AI-driven commerce. More than 3,000 call contracts remain open at the $175, $190, and $200 strikes expiring next Friday, suggesting traders are positioning for additional upside. This positioning reinforces the view that Shopify remains one of the more compelling speculative setups in the current environment.<img data-json="{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;d826bd74-6dae-4b68-8a00-424b605937de&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}],&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/33b779da-f2ff-4bd5-9194-a03422bca9eb_SHOP_db6222611767950850542.png&quot;}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/33b779da-f2ff-4bd5-9194-a03422bca9eb_SHOP_db6222611767950850542.png" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" />Apple offers a different kind of opportunity, rooted in mean reversion rather than momentum. The iPhone maker recently registered an unusually extreme oversold signal, with RSI falling to 8, comparable to the April 8 low near 10 following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs. Historically, such deeply oversold readings in Apple have tended to precede short-term rebounds, even when broader market conditions remain uncertain. While this does not guarantee a sustained rally, the probability of a tactical bounce appears elevated, improving the risk-reward profile for short-term positioning.<img data-json="{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;f200b00d-845e-4928-a9de-712d4d463e35&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}],&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/7031ef7e-0c27-4899-997e-1d4a2cabaa4e_aapl_15c008941767950910543.png&quot;}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/7031ef7e-0c27-4899-997e-1d4a2cabaa4e_aapl_15c008941767950910543.png" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" />As markets enter this transitional phase, patience and selectivity are becoming increasingly valuable. Index-level momentum has stalled, AI enthusiasm has cooled, and crypto remains trapped in consolidation. Yet beneath the surface, opportunities still exist for traders willing to focus on structure, probability, and discipline. Rather than forcing exposure at stretched levels, the current environment rewards those who wait for clarity and exploit tactical setups where odds are better defined.

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Markets Enter a Struggle Phase as Momentum Awaits Confirmation, but 3 Stocks Offer Technical Entry Opportunities

The rise of artificial intelligence is not just changing software; it is fundamentally reshaping the physical world, starting with the power grid. For the first time in two decades, AI-driven data centers are fueling a surge in US electricity demand. This is not a gradual uptick but the start of an exponential adoption curve, and it is creating an unprecedented infrastructure need.The numbers illustrate the scale of this shift. According to the latest forecast, utility power provided to data centers across the US is expected to rise by <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/electric-power/101425-data-center-grid-power-demand-to-rise-22-in-2025-nearly-triple-by-2030">22% in 2025 alone</a>, adding roughly 11.3 gigawatts to the grid. More striking is the trajectory ahead: data center power demand is projected to nearly triple by 2030, reaching a staggering 134.4 gigawatts. This isn't just growth; it's a paradigm shift in how we think about energy consumption, with a single technological sector poised to consume power at a rate that rivals entire nations.<img src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/aigc/hxcmp/images/compress-qwen_generated_1767959623433.jpg.png" style="max-width:100%;"/>This exponential demand justifies the kind of massive, long-term infrastructure bets we are now seeing. The cost of power is rapidly becoming a critical variable in the economics of AI compute. Companies like Meta are acting as first-movers, securing their fuel source decades in advance. Their recent agreements to purchase power from nuclear plants and develop small modular reactors are not speculative ventures but strategic plays to anchor their operations on a stable, low-carbon energy supply. The thesis is clear: in the race to build the infrastructure of the next technological paradigm, control over the fundamental energy rails is a decisive competitive advantage.<h2>The Dual-Track Infrastructure Play: Securing the Near-Term Rail and Betting on the Future</h2>Meta's new energy strategy is a masterclass in dual-track infrastructure planning. It's not just about buying power; it's about building the rails for two distinct phases of the AI power S-curve. The company is simultaneously securing the immediate fuel for its current expansion while placing a high-conviction bet on the next generation of technology for the long-term exponential ramp.The near-term foundation is concrete and immediate. Meta has struck <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/meta-strikes-nuclear-power-agreements-with-three-companies-2026-01-09/">20-year power purchase agreements with Vistra</a> for three existing nuclear plants. This provides a reliable, low-carbon energy stream to power its first major supercluster, Prometheus, which is set to come online in 2026. The deal does more than just supply power; it helps finance upgrades and extends the operational life of these facilities, effectively securing a critical input for Meta's current compute build-out. This is a hedge against the near-term volatility and scarcity that is already bottlenecks AI development. While data centers can be built quickly, the grid cannot, and locking in supply now is a strategic necessity. <visualization data='{"components":[{"show_type":"jgyNewLowcode","config":{"type":"iwcapp/stockBackTestTool","version":"0.0.3","url":"//cdn.ainvest.com/frontResources/s/foiegras/stockBackTestTool/0.0.3/stockBackTestTool@0.0.3index.js"},"data":{"columns":[{"index_name":"strategy_basic_info","key":"strategy_basic_info","type":"Object"},{"index_name":"backtest_condition","key":"backtest_condition","type":"Object"},{"index_name":"backtest_result","key":"backtest_result","type":"STR"}],"datas":[{"strategy_basic_info":{"name":"Absolute Momentum Long-only Strategy","description":"Long META when 252-day ROC &gt; 0 and close &gt; 200-day SMA; exit when close &lt; 200-day SMA, after 20 days, TP +8%, or SL -4%."},"backtest_condition":{"object":{"display_name":"Object","type":"ticker","ticker":["META"]},"open_signal":{"display_name":"Open Signal","type":"criteria","criteria":"252-day ROC &gt; 0 and close &gt; 200-day SMA"},"sell_signal":{"display_name":"Close Signal","type":"criteria","criteria":"close &lt; 200-day SMA, or after 20 trading days, or TP +8%, or SL -4%"},"risk_control":{"display_name":"Risk Control","parameters":{"take_profit":{"display_name":"Take-Profit","value":8,"unit":"%"},"stop_loss":{"display_name":"Stop-Loss","value":4,"unit":"%"},"max_holding_days":{"display_name":"Hold Days","value":20}}}},"backtest_result":"https://cdn.ainvest.com/backtest/agent/session/784562/1800109709/bb09a737-f081-406c-acf8-374384950a5c/meta_abs_mom_backtest.json"}]},"uuid":"1767959718077"}],"page":{"layout":{"layout_mode":"grid","layout_data":"[{\"uuid\": \"1767959718077\", \"show_type\": \"jgyNewLowcode\"}]"}}}'></visualization>On the future-facing track, Meta is moving beyond procurement to become a foundational customer for next-generation infrastructure. The company is actively funding the development of small modular reactors (SMRs) from Oklo and TerraPower. This isn't a speculative side project; it's a direct investment in the technology that could solve the scaling problem for nuclear power. By prepaying for fuel to help Oklo, Meta is providing crucial early capital to a nascent industry, positioning itself as a key anchor customer. The goal is clear: to bet on the paradigm shift in nuclear economics where factory-built SMRs promise lower costs and faster deployment than traditional plants, which is essential for meeting the tripling demand by 2030.This balanced approach is the hallmark of a deep infrastructure play. It hedges against the decade-long lead time for new nuclear projects by securing proven capacity today. At the same time, it funds the innovation that could make the future power supply not just sufficient, but exponentially more efficient. Meta is not just consuming the next energy paradigm; it is helping to build it.<h2>Financial Impact and Exponential Growth Assumptions</h2>The financial math here hinges on a simple but powerful equation: securing power today to enable exponential compute growth tomorrow. Meta's deals with Vistra are a classic infrastructure play, where the upfront commitment lowers the effective cost of fuel for its AI workloads. By helping finance expansions at the Ohio plants, the agreements directly support the build-out of the Prometheus supercluster. This is a hedge against the extreme volatility and scarcity that is already bottlenecks AI development. While data centers can be built quickly, the grid cannot, and locking in supply now is a strategic necessity that translates into a more predictable cost structure for its core operations.The true value of this long-term commitment, however, rests entirely on the exponential adoption curve of AI. The deals are justified only if data center power demand continues to climb at the projected pace, with US usage expected to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-09/meta-signs-multi-gigawatt-nuclear-deals-to-power-ai-data-centers">climb at least 30% by 2030</a>. The agreements provide up to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/meta-strikes-nuclear-power-agreements-with-three-companies-2026-01-09/">6.6 gigawatts of nuclear power by 2035</a>, a massive block of capacity that aligns with the tripling of demand forecast for that year. In other words, the financial payoff is not in the near-term power purchase price, but in the ability to scale its compute infrastructure without being held back by energy constraints. This is a bet on the paradigm shift itself, where control over the energy rails becomes a direct lever for competitive advantage in the AI race.<visualization dataurl="https://cdn.ainvest.com/news/visual/visual_components/viz_2m8vudiw.json"></visualization>The more speculative half of the bet-the SMR investments-carries significant execution risk. These are not off-the-shelf purchases but prepayments to fund the development of technology that is years from deployment and faces a complex regulatory hurdle from the <a href="https://www.nuscalepower.com/exploring-smrs/smr-101/how-smrs-gain-design-approval-in-the-u.s">U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)</a>. The process for certifying new reactor designs is thorough and can be lengthy, introducing uncertainty into the timeline and cost. While backers tout the promise of factory-built SMRs to save costs and speed deployment, critics question their ability to achieve the same economies of scale as traditional plants. For Meta, this is a high-conviction, long-dated investment in the future of nuclear economics. It's a bet that the regulatory and technical challenges can be overcome, and that the resulting technology will be essential for meeting the tripling demand by 2030. The risk is that the innovation fails to materialize on schedule, leaving Meta with a costly commitment to a technology that never reaches commercial scale.<h2>Catalysts, Risks, and What to Watch</h2>The thesis for Meta's nuclear bet rests on a future that is still being built. The path forward is defined by a series of high-stakes milestones that will validate the company's dual-track strategy or expose its vulnerabilities. The key catalysts are regulatory approvals, the delivery of promised power, and the relentless pace of AI adoption itself.First and foremost, watch for the <a href="https://www.nuscalepower.com/exploring-smrs/smr-101/how-smrs-gain-design-approval-in-the-u.s">NRC approvals for Oklo and TerraPower SMR designs</a>. This is the critical first step for the future-generation component of the deal. The NRC's review process is thorough and can be lengthy, as it must ensure these novel reactor designs meet stringent safety standards. Success here would de-risk the long-term SMR investments and signal that the next paradigm in nuclear economics is on track. Failure or significant delay would challenge the entire future-facing track of Meta's strategy, potentially leaving it with a costly commitment to technology that never reaches commercial scale.On the near-term front, the effectiveness of the Vistra agreements must be monitored through actual power delivery and cost. The deals are meant to secure <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/meta-strikes-nuclear-power-agreements-with-three-companies-2026-01-09/">6.6 gigawatts of nuclear power by 2035</a> and finance expansions at existing plants. The proof will be in the pudding: does the power arrive on schedule and at the projected cost? This directly impacts the economics of Meta's own compute build-out. If the power is delayed or proves more expensive than modeled, it could undermine the strategic hedge against grid bottlenecks. Conversely, smooth delivery would validate the infrastructure play and provide a stable fuel source for its AI growth.The ultimate arbiter of the entire thesis is the rate of AI adoption. The financial math assumes data center power demand will continue its exponential climb, with US usage expected to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-09/meta-signs-multi-gigawatt-nuclear-deals-to-power-ai-data-centers">climb at least 30% by 2030</a>. Any slowdown in this adoption curve would drastically reduce the urgency and payoff of securing such massive nuclear capacity decades in advance. The key risk is that a breakthrough in alternative energy sources-whether in grid-scale storage, fusion, or more efficient compute architectures-could reduce the need for this massive nuclear bet. While nuclear offers a clean, round-the-clock supply, if other solutions emerge that are faster to deploy or cheaper, Meta's multi-billion dollar commitment could be seen as a premature lock-in.The bottom line is that Meta is playing a long game on the AI power S-curve. The company is not just a consumer but a builder of the rails. The coming years will be defined by watching whether the regulatory, physical, and adoption curves align with its bold projections.

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Meta's Nuclear Infrastructure Bet: Securing the AI Power S-Curve

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<p>Market Rally Driven by Energy and Materials Sectors as Meta's Nuclear Deal Boosts Oklo and Vistra Shares; S&P 500 Futures Up 0.25%</p>