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Trump Tariff Tensions Ease: Can Stocks Sustain Their Sizzling Rebound?

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President Trump Participates in a Bilateral Meeting with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/72xAuoqax-Y" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Trump Live_6a04780b1763484668975.jpg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/72xAuoqax-Y&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Trump Live_6a04780b1763484668975.jpg&quot;}"></video>

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<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/xfWWgdORvZM" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPEpisode16Rasmussen_2311d22c1763482626800.jpg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/xfWWgdORvZM&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPEpisode16Rasmussen_2311d22c1763482626800.jpg&quot;}"></video>The November Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey arrives at a moment when markets are being rattled by a sharp AI-led unwind, and the findings are as revealing as they are timely. The survey shows investors coming into this drawdown both bullishly positioned and increasingly anxious about the very bubble that is now deflating in real time. While the shakeout across AI, mega-caps, and growth leadership over the past two weeks has been jarring, the survey suggests that investors had already begun heading for the exits well before prices cracked—which paradoxically may bring this correction closer to its end than its beginning.To understand why, it’s important to start with sentiment. The survey’s composite sentiment score—driven by cash levels, equity allocation, and growth expectations—rose to 6.4 in November, the highest since February. Growth expectations turned positive for the first time this year, with net 3% of investors now expecting global activity to improve over the next 12 months, up from -8% in October. A soft-landing narrative dominates, with 53% forecasting a gentle glide path and only 6% bracing for a hard landing. Yet this optimism is layered on top of persistent concerns about inflation, with 62% still labeling the macro backdrop as “stagflation.” The resulting mix—rising optimism and persistent inflation skepticism—has produced the kind of positioning that tends to look fragile once volatility hits.That fragility shows up most clearly in cash levels. Average cash dropped to 3.7% from 3.8%, the lowest since the 2021–2022 speculative peak and below BofA’s 4% “sell signal” threshold. Historically, every instance of sub-3.8% cash since 2002 has been followed by weaker equities and stronger Treasuries over the next one to three months. In other words: investors came into the recent AI rout with little cash left to deploy. This is the single biggest near-term caution flag in the entire report.Yet outside of cash, positioning looks more nuanced. Equity exposure rose to a net 34% overweight, the highest since February but still well below the 50–60% levels seen at major market tops. Investors remain heavily overweight EM equities, healthcare, banks, and commodities, with commodity exposure hitting its strongest level since September 2022. At the same time, Eurozone and UK equities were aggressively sold, discretionary saw its sharpest allocation cut since 2005, and tech exposure was trimmed by the most in eight months. Even as the “Magnificent 7” reclaimed the top spot as the most crowded trade, investors were already rotating into defensives, real assets, and EM—an early warning crack in the AI-centric leadership.Nowhere is the tension between positioning and fear more obvious than in the AI bubble debate. A record 63% of managers say global equities are overvalued, while 53% believe AI stocks are already in a bubble—just shy of October’s all-time high. And 45% identified “AI bubble” as the biggest tail risk, a sharp rise from last month’s 33%. The survey also captured the first majority reading since 2005 that companies are “overinvesting,” driven almost entirely by concern about the magnitude and sustainability of hyperscaler AI capex. And yet, managers simultaneously view AI as genuinely transformative: 53% say AI is already boosting productivity, 15% expect the real productivity payoff in 2026, and another 27% expect it later. This is not a bubble built on disbelief—but one built on belief coming too fast.This makes the timing of the current AI meltdown especially interesting. The survey suggests investors were already worried about bubble dynamics, already cutting tech exposure, and already rotating toward safety before markets broke. That means the ongoing liquidation may be more of a position-clearing event than the start of a structural unwind. If December’s survey shows cash levels jumping back above 4%—a plausible outcome given this month’s volatility—it would flip one of the biggest red flags back into a supportive signal.Looking further ahead, expectations for 2026 paint a picture of optimism, not mania. International equities are expected to be the best performing asset class next year, followed by US equities, with MSCI EM and the Nasdaq leading among equity indices. In currencies, the yen is expected to outperform in 2026, followed by gold, consistent with the underweight-dollar and overweight-commodities positioning. Investors see the 10-year Treasury finishing 2026 in the 4.0%–4.5% range and the S&amp;P 500 ending 2026 in the 7000–7500 band, while the most bullish macro catalyst for 2026 is “AI productivity gains.” The most bearish: “inflation and Fed rate hikes.”Taken together, the survey reflects a market that was bullishly exposed but psychologically uneasy before the recent drop. Investors feared the AI bubble, were trimming tech and discretionary, and were rotating into EM, healthcare, and commodities—all before the tape rolled over. That implies this correction is removing excess in the very places the survey identified, a dynamic that often precedes—not follows—major trading bottoms.The only reason not to lean into that interpretation is cash. But if next month’s FMS shows cash surging as investors capitulate, this pullback could look like a classic late-year opportunity—shakeout first, euphoria later.

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BofA Fund Manager Survey Reveals AI Bubble Fears Rising Just as Positioning Turns Bullish and Cash Hits a Warning Low

<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/xfWWgdORvZM" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPEpisode16Rasmussen_4d51ac481763477289040.jpg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/xfWWgdORvZM&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPEpisode16Rasmussen_4d51ac481763477289040.jpg&quot;}"></video>Klarna’s <a href="https://s205.q4cdn.com/644747736/files/doc_financials/2025/q3/Q3-2025-Earnings-Release.pdf" target='__blank'>first earnings report</a> as a public company delivered a clear top-line beat but not the clean victory shareholders were hoping for, sending the stock down about 8% in early trading despite strong growth metrics. The buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) firm posted Q3 revenue of $903 million, up 26% from $706 million a year ago and ahead of the roughly $882–$885 million <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/klarna-q3-revenue-beats-estimates-123251249.html" target='__blank'>analyst consensus</a> , but reported a $95 million net loss versus a $12 million profit in Q3 2024. With the stock already in a downtrend since its Sept. 10 IPO at $52—having peaked intraday at $57.20 and sliding to $34 ahead of the print—the market response underscores skepticism around the path to sustainable profitability and credit normalization, even as management leans hard into a growth-and-scale narrative.Against expectations, the top line was the clear strong point. Revenue of $903 million exceeded LSEG and FactSet estimates in the low-$880 million area, powered by surging U.S. business and growing adoption of new products. Gross merchandise volume (GMV) rose 23% globally to $32.7 billion, with U.S. GMV jumping 43% and U.S. revenue up 51%, confirming the U.S. as the engine of the Klarna story. At the same time, transaction margin dollars (TMD) fell year over year to $281 million from $316 million, which at first glance suggests deteriorating economics—but management framed this as a “profitability lag” driven by accounting: provisions for Fair Financing loans are recognized upfront, while interest income accrues over the life of the loan.Klarna’s business model is squarely in BNPL and adjacent consumer credit: it generates revenue primarily from merchant discount fees on transactions, plus interest and fees on longer-dated installment products and, to a lesser extent, late fees. The quarter showed clear traction across this ecosystem. Active customers rose 32% to 114 million, merchants grew 38% to 850,000, and the group take rate expanded to about 2.76%, helped by mix shift toward the higher-yield Fair Financing product. The Klarna Card—launched in July and positioned as a hybrid debit/credit tool that lets users pay instantly or split purchases into installments—has already surpassed 4 million customers and accounted for about 15% of transactions by October, with card GMV up 92% year over year. Fair Financing GMV grew 244% in the U.S. and 139% globally, but because provisions are booked upfront, interest income grew just 48%, with the remainder expected to flow through in coming quarters as customers repay.On credit quality, management went out of its way to address the central investor worry: that BNPL growth is being built on a shaky consumer base. Klarna reported realized losses of just 0.44% of GMV, down 1 basis point year over year, and said more customers are paying on time or even early. Fair Financing delinquencies improved 5% year over year, while provisions for credit losses rose to 0.72% of GMV largely because the loan book is growing so quickly. Management emphasized that it is not seeing “material differences” in payback or spending habits tied to the current macro environment, even as external commentators—including the Richmond Fed—continue to flag BNPL’s younger, more leveraged demographic mix as a risk. The message from Klarna is that the credit engine is behaving well; the provisions are primarily a function of growth and accounting treatment rather than deteriorating borrower performance.The most structurally important development this quarter sits on the balance sheet rather than the income statement: an agreement with Elliott Investment Management–managed funds to purchase Klarna’s U.S. Fair Financing loans. Over a two-year term, the parties expect to facilitate up to $6.5 billion of loans, with Elliott buying both part of the existing portfolio and, on a rolling basis from October onward, newly originated receivables. This effectively creates scalable, off-balance-sheet funding for Klarna’s fastest-growing credit product, freeing capital, improving long-term capital efficiency, and de-risking concentration in its own balance sheet. For investors worried about how Klarna would finance rapid U.S. installment growth without loading up on risk-weighted assets, this is a key proof point: Klarna can originate, earn its fees and interest spread, and distribute a chunk of the credit risk to a sophisticated partner.Guidance and outlook tilted constructive, though again with an accounting wrinkle. For Q4, Klarna expects GMV of $37.5–$38.5 billion and revenue of $1.065–$1.08 billion, modestly above the roughly $1.06 billion consensus. TMD is forecast in the $390–$400 million range, implying an uplift of more than $100 million versus Q3 as previously originated Fair Financing loans generate revenue with fewer new provisions. Management highlighted that revenue has grown 108% since Q3 2022 while operating expenses are up just 2%, crediting AI-enabled productivity and cost control for the operating leverage. Klarna reiterated its 2025 outlook calling for continued expansion in GMV, revenue, and TMD and a “clear and steady path to profitability,” while also acknowledging some nervousness about the industry’s massive AI/data center investment cycle and long-term compute demand dynamics.Despite the fundamental momentum, the stock reaction reflects a market that has grown more demanding on high-growth fintechs. Investors are digesting a mix of factors: a net loss where there was a profit a year ago, a profitability framework that relies heavily on timing differences in provisions versus interest income, regulatory and reputational overhangs around BNPL, and a broader risk-off environment driven by AI bubble fears and concerns over consumer spending. From an equity standpoint, the setup is straightforward: operational KPIs and U.S. growth are strong, the Elliott deal strengthens Klarna’s balance-sheet story, and credit metrics remain reassuring—for now. But with the IPO already in the rearview mirror and the stock down more than a third from its highs, Klarna now has to prove that its “fair financing” narrative can translate into fair returns for shareholders across a full credit and economic cycle.

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Klarna Crashes After Earnings: Revenue Soars, Losses Surge, and Elliott’s $6.5B Lifeline Raises New Questions

U.S. equities opened sharply lower Tuesday morning, extending a risk-off mood across global assets as cautious investor sentiment was reinforced by a disappointing earnings report from Home Depot Inc. and a continued rout in the cryptocurrency market. At the Opening Bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 482 points, or 1.04%, trading near 46,108, while the broad-market S&amp;P 500 fell 0.54% to 6,637. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.59% to 24,653. The surge in volatility underscored the market&#39;s unease, with the VIX—the market&#39;s &quot;fear gauge&quot; spiking more than 6.4% to 23.82. The pressure came as Bitcoin plunged more than 2.7% to trade near $91,294, highlighting fatigue in speculative assets, even as commodity prices showed modest losses, with Gold down 0.19% to $4,067 and Crude Oil down 0.15% to $59.77 a barrel.<h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>Home Depot Misses as Housing Lags</h3><h3></h3><h3></h3>The most significant pre-market trading news centered on Home Depot Inc., whose shares were trading lower by roughly 2% after the company delivered <a href="https://www.ainvest.com/news/home-depot-misses-housing-slowdown-drags-shares-slip-key-support-2511/" target='__blank'>its third consecutive earnings miss,</a> according to the provided report. The home-improvement retailer&#39;s third-quarter results showed weak comparable sales, traffic, and profitability despite modest revenue growth.<visualization data='{&quot;components&quot;:[{&quot;show_type&quot;:&quot;jgyKline3&quot;,&quot;config&quot;:{&quot;codeName&quot;:&quot;name&quot;,&quot;marketTag&quot;:&quot;NYSE&quot;,&quot;variety&quot;:&quot;Stock&quot;,&quot;showBottom&quot;:true},&quot;title_config&quot;:{&quot;config&quot;:{&quot;display&quot;:true},&quot;data&quot;:{&quot;h1&quot;:&quot;The Home Depot (HD)&quot;}},&quot;data&quot;:{&quot;datas&quot;:[{&quot;code&quot;:&quot;HD&quot;,&quot;name&quot;:&quot;The Home Depot&quot;,&quot;market_code&quot;:&quot;169&quot;}]},&quot;uuid&quot;:&quot;e9fa0743fcd6fa45&quot;}],&quot;page&quot;:{&quot;layout&quot;:{&quot;layout_data&quot;:&quot;[{\&quot;showType\&quot;:\&quot;jgyKline3\&quot;,\&quot;uuid\&quot;:\&quot;e9fa0743fcd6fa45\&quot;}]&quot;},&quot;render_for&quot;:&quot;aigc&quot;,&quot;tracking_info&quot;:{}}}' dataurl='undefined'></visualization>The company&#39;s core operating metrics fell short of expectations, with comparable sales rising a meager 0.2% against consensus estimates of +1.3%. This performance reinforces the narrative that consumers remain hesitant to commit to large projects due to elevated interest rates, soft housing turnover, and macroeconomic uncertainty. CEO Ted Decker noted that “an expected increase in demand...did not materialize,” reflecting the sustained &quot;deferral mindset&quot; among homeowners since mid-2023.Further compounding the pressure, management lowered its fiscal 2025 guidance, now expecting adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) to decline about 5% year-over-year, which is steeper than its previous guidance of a 2% decline. The report highlighted that the stock is now testing the critical $341 support level—the 200-week moving average—amid its prolonged underperformance relative to the broader retail sector.<h3>Bitcoin Signals Broader Risk-Off Sentiment</h3><h3></h3><h3></h3>Adding to the cautious mood is a sharp <a href="https://www.ainvest.com/news/btc-sell-echoed-april-crash-expect-golden-buy-dip-window-arrive-2511/" target='__blank'>sell-off in Bitcoin</a> (BTC), which often reflects the broader appetite for risk. After reaching record highs in October, the cryptocurrency is now down about 28% from its peak and has turned negative year-to-date, according to a market report.📺 The Math That Could Predict Bitcoin&#39;s Peak &amp; Bottom 👇<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/yRDGOu0DO54" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Episode 7_9759f8ae1763475489734.jpg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/yRDGOu0DO54&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Episode 7_9759f8ae1763475489734.jpg&quot;}"></video>Its weakness is &quot;contributing to fatigue in broader risk assets as aggressive traders unwind positions and adopt a more cautious stance.&quot; The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC recently plummeted to 19, a level not seen since February 25. While a low RSI can sometimes support a short-term bounce, it is also noted as a warning sign that &quot;more downside could follow.&quot; The report suggests that until the market experiences a &quot;sharper flush that reopens liquidity and sets up a more attractive entry,&quot; there is &quot;no urgency to go all-in.&quot;High Stakes for Nvidia’s AI Referendum<h3></h3><h3></h3>Looking ahead, market participants are fixated on Nvidia’s third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings report, scheduled for release after the close on Wednesday. The report <a href="https://www.ainvest.com/news/nvidia-faces-judgment-day-earnings-ignite-supercycle-trigger-meltdown-2511/" target='__blank'>is being framed</a> as the &quot;single most important data point&quot; for the market in the final weeks of the year and a &quot;referendum on the durability of the entire AI trade.&quot;Wall Street is looking for roughly $54.8-55 billion in revenue and $1.25 in EPS, representing more than 50% year-on-year growth. The key swing factor will be January quarter guidance, with consensus sitting near $61-62 billion. CEO Jensen Huang has previously disclosed over $500 billion in cumulative orders for the new Blackwell and next-generation Rubin platforms through 2026, underlining significant long-term momentum.However, the setup is binary: an upside surprise, with guidance north of $62 billion, could re-ignite momentum in the entire AI complex. Conversely, a miss, a conservative guide, or any suggestion that supply constraints or geopolitical risks, such as the zero-sales assumption for China data center revenue, are biting harder, could validate “AI-bubble worries” and invite a deeper rotation out of growth stocks. This sentiment is amplified by recent profit-taking from sophisticated investors, such as Peter Thiel&#39;s Thiel Macro fund and SoftBank.As the market seeks direction, the underlying message remains one of caution until a more straightforward path emerges. In the words of Warren Buffett: &quot;Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.&quot;

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The Home Depot

Market Slides on Home Depot Miss and Crypto Plunge, Volatility Surges Ahead of Nvidia

<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/xfWWgdORvZM" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPEpisode16Rasmussen_891b20be1763469460061.jpg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/xfWWgdORvZM&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPEpisode16Rasmussen_891b20be1763469460061.jpg&quot;}"></video>Home Depot shares are trading lower by roughly 2% in pre-market trading after the company delivered a pedestrian <a href="https://ir.homedepot.com/news-releases/2025/11-18-2025-110057142" target='__blank'>third-quarter report</a> that offered little convincing evidence of a demand recovery. While revenue modestly beat expectations, the core operating metrics that investors track most closely—comparable sales, traffic, and profitability—fell short. The results underscore a simple reality that continues to hang over the home-improvement sector: the consumer remains unwilling to commit to large projects, the housing cycle remains soft, and the macro backdrop is still too murky to drive meaningful acceleration. With shares already trending lower for months and pressing toward the key $341 level—the 200-week moving average investors have been eyeing—this print does little to ease the pressure. <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/home-depot-announces-third-quarter-110000024.html" target='__blank'>Total sales</a> of $41.35 billion rose 2.8% year over year, slightly ahead of consensus, but the headline figure was flattered by roughly $900 million in revenue from the recently acquired GMS. Excluding that contribution, underlying demand was weaker than the top-line suggests. Comparable sales rose just 0.2% versus expectations for +1.3%, and U.S. comps increased a meager 0.1%, well below the 1.25% analysts were looking for. Management noted that demand was stable sequentially but failed to show the pickup they anticipated entering the quarter. As CEO Ted Decker put it, “an expected increase in demand…did not materialize,” as consumer caution and ongoing pressure in housing weighed heavily on behavior.The breakdown of key operating metrics continues to paint a mixed picture. Comparable customer transactions fell 1.6% year over year, signaling softer foot traffic and continued hesitancy among homeowners to initiate discretionary projects. Meanwhile, the comparable average ticket rose 1.8%, a reflection of modest price increases and mix effects. Total transactions declined 1.4% to 39.5 million, while the average ticket climbed to $90.39, roughly in line with expectations. The rise in ticket size is encouraging at the margin, but it has not been nearly enough to offset volume weakness. For a retailer that typically benefits most when customers are moving homes or taking on major renovations, the current backdrop of low housing turnover and elevated mortgage rates is a direct headwind.Inventory management remained disciplined, though the company did not cite major draws or buildups that would meaningfully change the margin trajectory. Gross margin for the quarter landed at 33.2%, and adjusted operating margin was 13%, down from last year due to weaker-than-hoped volumes and the inclusion of the lower-margin GMS business. Cost of sales rose in line with revenue, which, combined with a slight rise in net interest expense, added to the margin compression. Adjusted EPS of $3.74 missed the $3.85 consensus, marking the company’s third consecutive miss as profit pressures remain stubborn.Management commentary on the consumer was also notably cautious. Decker reiterated that homeowners remain in a “deferral mindset,” continuing a trend in place since mid-2023. Large-ticket discretionary categories—kitchens, bathrooms, flooring, outdoor projects—remain especially soft as consumers face high borrowing costs, a wobbly housing market, and broader economic unease. The lack of storm activity in the quarter also created a surprising drag across certain categories, reducing demand for roofing materials, generators, and emergency supplies that typically boost sales during hurricane season. CFO Richard McPhail told CNBC that the company expected sequential improvement as interest rates eased—but that macro relief never arrived.In fact, management explicitly pointed to several macro headwinds that likely weighed on performance: higher mortgage rates, a slowdown in home values in certain markets, lingering consumer uncertainty tied to fiscal instability during the government shutdown, and rising corporate layoff announcements that may be tempering household confidence. Even Home Depot’s more financially stable customer base—90% of DIY shoppers own their homes—has shown caution around committing to big-spend projects. The company has leaned harder into its professional customer segment, supported by acquisitions like SRS Distribution ($18.25B) and GMS, but that effort has not yet been enough to offset the softness on the household side.The company’s updated fiscal 2025 guidance reflects this more challenging environment. Home Depot now expects full-year sales to grow roughly 3%, slightly higher than the prior 2.8%, but entirely due to the addition of GMS. Comparable sales are seen growing “slightly positive,” down from earlier expectations for 1% growth. More importantly, adjusted diluted EPS is now expected to decline about 5% year over year—steeper than the previously guided 2% decline and well below consensus looking for a 1.7% drop. Operating margin is expected to settle around 12.6%, with adjusted margin at 13%, reflecting persistent cost pressures and softer-than-expected volume recovery.From a stock perspective, the trend remains unfavorable. Shares are down about 8% year-to-date and have been under steady pressure for months, underperforming both the broader retail sector and rival Lowe’s. The pre-market reaction places the stock on track to open near a five-month low, and the longer-term technical picture remains fragile. The 200-week moving average around $341— <a href="https://www.ainvest.com/news/home-depot-edge-earnings-tomorrow-reveal-housing-slowdown-worse-2511/" target='__blank'>highlighted in yesterday&#39;s preview</a> —is now firmly in focus, and a decisive break below that level could invite additional pressure from long-term holders.In short, Home Depot’s third-quarter report reinforces a narrative that has been building across the home-improvement and building-products ecosystem: the consumer is cautious, home turnover is low, big projects are being deferred, and the expected second-half recovery keeps slipping further out of reach. Until interest rates meaningfully ease or consumer psychology shifts, the company is likely to remain in a holding pattern—one that the stock is already reflecting as it grinds lower through year-end.

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