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At the closing bell Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 75 points (0.2%) to 46,987, the S&amp;P 500 added roughly 0.1% to 6,729, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.2% to 23,005, while the Russell 2000 climbed 0.5% to 242. In commodities, crude oil (Dec) hovered near $59.73, up 0.5%, and gold (Dec) traded around $4,008, up 0.4%. The Cboe Volatility Index edged up to about 19.7. Markets closed on a cautious note amid persistent uncertainty over the U.S. government shutdown and its potential ripple effects on the broader economy.<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/yw8rq7zMBC0" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/David Trainer_aca0765a1762548184127.jpg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/yw8rq7zMBC0&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/David Trainer_aca0765a1762548184127.jpg&quot;}"></video>A deal to end the U.S. government shutdown appeared dead on arrival late Friday afternoon. Democrats pitched a stopgap clean funding bill paired with a one-year extension of enhanced ACA tax credits and longer-term talks on health-care affordability—an offer Republicans rejected. “No, we’re not going to do that,” Sen. Steve Daines told Fox News. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer, of New York, proposed the deal and called it a &quot;simple compromise.&quot; Because of the shutdown and staffing shortages, the FAA began trimming flights at 40 major airports, starting with a 4% reduction on Friday and stepping up to 10% by Nov. 14. The agency issued a press release claiming the cuts will “maintain the highest standards of safety” as staffing strains build during the shutdown. Transportation Secretary Sean P. Duffy said, &quot;My department has many responsibilities, but our number one job is safety… It’s safe to fly today, and it will continue to be safe to fly next week because of the proactive actions we are taking.” FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford added that the FAA is “proactively reducing the number of flights” and will not hesitate to take “further action.” Airlines must issue full refunds for cancellations, the FAA said. Carriers began reshaping schedules. Bloomberg reported that United Airlines projected about 510 flights would be cut from Friday through Sunday, with 184 on Friday alone, and plans further trimming to reach the 10% target next week. Delta is slated to make approximately 170 cuts, Southwest Airlines is expected to make roughly 120, and American Airlines is anticipated to make about 220 daily cuts through Monday. CEO Bob Isom told CNBC that the reductions are already crimping Thanksgiving bookings.Meanwhile, Bank of America Institute data indicated that after-tax wage growth in October cooled to 1.0% YoY for lower-income households, 2.0% for middle-income, and 3.7% for higher-income groups. <img data-json="{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/88ea3cfd4e264adb9309d9ff4045b8c1_8548a8561762549145336.jpg&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}]}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/88ea3cfd4e264adb9309d9ff4045b8c1_8548a8561762549145336.jpg" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" />Payroll growth held near 0.5% YoY, and households receiving unemployment benefits rose about 10% YoY—signs of easing pay pressure without a spike in joblessness.

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Stocks Mixed at the Close as Shutdown Jitters Linger, Oil and Gold Firm, VIX Near 20

<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/xfWWgdORvZM" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPEpisode16Rasmussen_9e8ee30f1762523407550.jpg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/xfWWgdORvZM&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPEpisode16Rasmussen_9e8ee30f1762523407550.jpg&quot;}"></video>Affirm (AFRM) <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/affirm-holdings-afrm-surpasses-q1-225501873.html" target='__blank'>delivered</a> a clean beat-and-raise that threads the needle between growth and discipline—exactly what BNPL skeptics said would be hard to sustain this late in the cycle. Fiscal Q1 revenue rose 34% to $933 million (vs. ~$882–$884 million consensus) and EPS printed $0.23 (vs. $0.11 est.), with EBIT of $64 million (vs. $25 million est.). GMV jumped 42% to $10.8 billion, powered by its 0% APR products, continued adoption of the Affirm Card, and distribution via payment-service-provider (PSP) partners. Management nudged guidance higher, including operating margin now “more than 7.5%” for the year (prior “more than 6%”) and reaffirmed the long-stated goal of keeping revenue-less-transaction-costs (RLTC) around a 3–4% band, with 4% the upper bound. The quarter also came with a strategically important extension of the U.S. Amazon partnership through January 2031, plus another ABS deal and added forward-flow capacity—useful ballast if markets get choppy. <a href="https://investors.affirm.com/static-files/f1ccece4-2a12-4365-9032-50287ccf5ec1" target='__blank'>Credit</a> is the fulcrum of the BNPL debate, and Affirm’s read remains steady rather than euphoric. Management said consumers are “borrowing, paying us back, shopping fairly healthily,” and they “do not see any loss of repayment.” The data line up: 30+ day delinquencies (excluding Peloton and Pay-in-X) fell 4 bps year over year and rose 45 bps quarter over quarter—seasonal normalization that tracks historical patterns. Recent monthly-installment cohorts continue to point to ~3.5% ultimate net charge-offs, consistent with prior vintages. Mix matters here: the share of 0% APR loans increased to 28% from 25% a year ago, and 0% APR products carry a lower credit-risk profile. In plain English, product mix and underwriting (including cash-flow underwriting for younger cohorts) are offsetting late-cycle nerves you’re seeing in other consumer buckets—especially auto—where delinquencies have climbed.Funding flexibility was another bright spot. Capacity increased to $26.6 billion, which the company believes supports more than $60 billion in annual GMV on a roughly 5-month weighted-average duration. In September, Affirm printed its largest ABS to date ($1.1 billion) at the lowest weighted-average yield since FY’22 and, notably, with a three-year revolving period—reducing near-term refinancing risk. Forward-flow capacity grew by roughly $500 million as relationships with large insurers deepened and a new asset manager onboarded; warehouse capacity expanded by $300 million, and advance rates improved with a bank partner thanks to predictable credit performance. If credit is the fulcrum, funding is the hinge—both looked sturdier this quarter.Unit economics and operating leverage also improved. RLTC landed around 4.2% in the quarter (management’s reiterated upper bound is 4%), and adjusted operating income reached $264 million, a 28% margin versus 19% a year ago. The margin lift was driven by a $170 million increase in RLTC dollars and operating expense discipline (sales and marketing fell year over year largely due to warrant amortization rolling off). Technology and data costs rose in line with a 52% increase in transaction count—investment that supports Card growth, wallet integrations, and international work streams like the U.K. with Shopify.On the growth side, momentum remains broad-based—not just a one-merchant story. GMV from 0% APR products grew 64% and 0% APR monthly installment GMV rose 74% as more than 40,000 merchants funded offers; roughly 95% of 0% APR monthly installment GMV at integrated merchants is merchant-funded. Direct-to-consumer GMV grew 53% to $3.2 billion, with Affirm Card GMV up 135% to $1.4 billion; in-store Card usage surged 170%. Active cardholders more than doubled to 2.8 million; active consumers reached 24.1 million (+24% y/y), the seventh straight quarter of accelerating growth. Concentration risk nudged lower as GMV from the top five partners declined to 44% from 47% a year ago, even as those partners still grew strongly (+33%).Guidance threads caution with confidence. Q2 revenue is guided to $1.03–$1.06 billion (roughly in line at the midpoint) with EBIT around $78 million, and GMV of $13.0–$13.3 billion. For the full year, revenue of ~$4.0 billion and EBIT of ~$299 million imply continued operating leverage as RLTC dollars scale. Management reiterated that the 4% RLTC cap is about optimizing long-term growth and profitability, not squeezing take rates in the short run. Translation: they’ll spend RLTC “headroom” to win durable distribution and better cohorts.So why the stock wobble around the print? Two things. First, BNPL remains a lightning rod in a market suddenly twitchy about consumer credit—especially with headline fatigue from auto delinquencies and a softening labor narrative. Second, AFRM’s tape has carved a descending triangle in recent weeks as investors positioned for a credit scare that didn’t show up in the data. Shares dipped on the open despite the beat/raise, then reclaimed losses. Technically, the 200-day moving average near $65 is the line in the sand. A decisive test is likely; a hold could reset the pattern and invite momentum back toward the mid-70s, while a break would risk a slide toward prior volume shelves. For traders, the setup is unusually clean: defined risk at/just below the 200-day; for longs, confirmation requires both the hold and follow-through.Risks bear watching. RLTC can be lumpy quarter to quarter due to capital-markets activity and product mix; seasonality will keep near-term delinquency compares noisy. Macro remains a swing factor: a more pronounced slowdown or a sharper rise in unemployment would test BNPL’s resilience despite better underwriting and merchant-funded 0% APR. Regulatory scrutiny is the wild card every BNPL model carries.Bottom line: AFRM’s quarter argues the model is scaling with improving quality—growth diversified across products and channels, credit metrics stable, and funding breadth expanding. In a market fretting about late-cycle consumer cracks, that combination is rare. The narrative now shifts to the chart: all eyes on the 200-day at $65 to see if fundamentals can overpower fear of the pattern.

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Affirm Defies Credit Fears With Big Beat—But Can It Hold the Line at $65?


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Stocks opened on the back foot as the shutdown’s ripple effects darkened risk appetite: the VIX jumped to roughly 20 (up about 4%), while haven gold hovered near $4,006 and crude traded around $60. With policy uncertainty clouding the outlook and travel and funding markets bracing for disruption, investors marked down early bids in the major averages at the opening bell, reflecting a defensive tilt that’s become the default stance until Washington breaks the impasse. At the opening bell, the Dow fell 229.83 points (-0.49%) to 46,882.5, the S&amp;P 500 lost 53.50 (-0.80%) to 6,666.82, the Nasdaq dropped 300.19 (-1.30%) to 22,753.8, and the Russell 2000 slipped 2.90 (-1.21%) to 237.45. The VIX stood at 20.35 (+0.85, +4.36%).<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/xfWWgdORvZM" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Episode 16 (1)_ed55ed3c1762523632089.jpg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/xfWWgdORvZM&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Episode 16 (1)_ed55ed3c1762523632089.jpg&quot;}"></video>The ongoing U.S. government shutdown continues to have a negative impact on various parts of the economy. The Federal Aviation Administration <a href="https://www.faa.gov/newsroom/us-transportation-secretary-sean-p-duffy-faa-administrator-bryan-bedford-outline-series" target='__blank'>outlined a staged reduction</a> in domestic flights, reaching 10% by Nov. 14, across 40 of the nation’s busiest airports, a response to stress in the air traffic system as controllers continue working without pay. “My department has many responsibilities, but our number one job is safety,” said U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean P. Duffy. “This isn’t about politics, it’s about assessing the data and alleviating building risk in the system as controllers continue to work without pay.” FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford added, “We are seeing signs of stress in the system, so we are proactively reducing the number of flights to make sure the American people continue to fly safely.” Airlines must issue full refunds for cancellations, though carriers are not required to cover secondary costs. International services aren’t mandated to be cut. Airlines have already begun trimming schedules. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-06/airport-flight-cuts-expected-to-kick-in-early-friday-morning?srnd=homepage-americas" target='__blank'>Bloomberg reported</a> that United will remove about 510 services between Friday and Sunday, Delta about 170 flights on Friday, Southwest roughly 120 on the day, and American about 220 daily through Monday—pressure that American’s CEO Bob Isom said is starting to dent Thanksgiving bookings. Those reductions, combined with FAA constraints, raise the risk of broader travel disruptions into the holiday period. Funding markets are also flashing warning signs. Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, said the shutdown has amplified reserve drainage—via a higher Treasury General Account balance and shifting cash out of the Fed’s reverse-repo facility—pushing key overnight benchmarks such as SOFR and TGCR above the Fed’s interest on reserve balances. If rate volatility persists, “it could begin to have consequences for credit markets,” he cautioned. SOFR and TGCR are overnight funding rates that influence short-term borrowing costs; the IORB is the rate paid by the Fed on bank reserves. <img data-json="{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Screenshot 2025-11-07 at 8.51.03 AM_3a36dbc31762524238152.png&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}]}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Screenshot 2025-11-07 at 8.51.03 AM_3a36dbc31762524238152.png" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" />Politics remains a swing factor. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries urged President Trump to convene bipartisan talks “anytime and anyplace” to end the government shutdown, underscoring the standoff’s reach from policy into everyday commerce. In corporate news, Tesla shareholders approved <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/musk-answers-1-trillion-tesla-113007602.html" target='__blank'>Elon Musk&#39;s pay package,</a> a vote watched as a proxy for confidence in the company’s AI and robotics ambitions. Wedbush’s Dan Ives wrote that “we continue to believe that the AI valuation is getting unlocked, and we believe the march to an AI-driven valuation for TSLA over the next 6–9 months has now begun in our view,” maintaining an OUTPERFORM rating and a $600 price target. While not central to shutdown mechanics, the decision highlights how both policy-driven uncertainty and company-specific AI narratives are influencing risk appetite in the equities market.

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