XRP Surpasses Ethereum in Fully Diluted Market Capitalization, Up 0.283%

XRP's latest price was $2.08, up 0.283% in the last 24 hours. In a significant development within the cryptocurrency market, XRP has surpassed Ethereum (ETH) in terms of Fully Diluted Market Capitalization (FDMC). This metric represents the total potential value of a cryptocurrency if all of its tokens were in circulation. Edward Farina, a crypto analyst and XRP supporter, announced on April 18 that XRP had officially overtaken Ethereum in FDMC, with XRP's FDMC reaching $208.4 billion compared to Ethereum's $192.5 billion. This milestone marks over six consecutive months of XRP outperforming Ethereum in terms of projected value, indicating a potential shift in altcoin dominance between the two leading cryptocurrencies.

The discrepancy between XRP’s market capitalization and FDMC lies in its unique token structure. A significant portion of XRP’s supply is held in escrow, meaning those tokens are not yet available in the open market. While they do not count toward the circulating supply, they are included in its Fully Diluted Market Capitalization. This implies that if all of XRP’s tokens in escrow were unlocked and circulated today, its market value could exceed that of Ethereum.

Coinbase has listed futures contracts for the XRP token on its US derivatives exchange, offering traders a regulated, capital-efficient way to gain exposure to one of the most liquid digital assets. The contracts are overseen by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and include standard contracts representing 10,000 XRP and retail-oriented “nano” contracts representing 500 XRP each. This move by Coinbase underscores the increasing acceptance of crypto derivatives, with regulated platforms providing new avenues for market participation.

Since 2024, US exchanges, including Coinbase, have been expanding crypto futures offerings in response to strong demand from retail and institutional investors. Futures contracts are standardized agreements to buy or sell an underlying asset at a future date, popular for hedging and speculation because they let traders take long and short positions, often with leverage. Coinbase lists derivatives tied to some 92 different assets on its international exchange and approximately two dozen in the US, including contracts tied to memecoins, and commodities.

In March, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) dropped a years-long lawsuit against XRP Ledger’s developer, Ripple, for alleged securities law violations. This legal development has been seen as a positive step for the XRP community, potentially paving the way for greater adoption and regulatory clarity for the cryptocurrency.

The XRP weekly chart covering approximately 100 candlesticks offers a rich narrative of price action, technical patterns, and potential market direction. Historically, XRP traded in a low-volatility range from early 2024 until mid-Q4, when a breakout occurred around October 2024. The breakout, characterized by large bullish candlesticks, signaled a major change in market sentiment. This movement pushed the price from below $0.70 to nearly $3.80 in a sharp vertical rally. This parabolic run was unsustainable and was quickly followed by volatility and consolidation. The presence of this pattern strongly reflects a classic blow-off top, which is now being tested for a retracement phase or a possible continuation pattern.

Analyzing the Bollinger Bands (20, 2), it is evident that the price experienced a major expansion in late 2024 as XRP surged. The bands widened drastically during the bullish run, followed by a contraction as the price pulled back. Currently, XRP is trading closer to the middle band (SMA 20), which is around $2.40. The price has slipped below this midpoint, now hovering at approximately $2.08. This breach suggests a bearish tone in the short term unless the price can reclaim the SMA level convincingly. However, the lower Bollinger Band rests near $1.77, providing a potential short-term support area. The narrowing bands further signal reduced volatility and a possible squeeze, indicating that a major price move could be on the horizon.

The MACD (12, 26, close) confirms the fading bullish momentum. Following a bullish crossover in late 2024, the histogram surged positively, validating the rally. Recently, the MACD line has crossed below the signal line, now reading at 0.1844 against the signal’s 0.3107, with a negative histogram reading of -0.1264. This crossover signals weakening bullish strength and a potential shift to bearish control. If the MACD continues to diverge further downward, a deeper correction may unfold. However, the rate of decline is not accelerating drastically, hinting at a possible stabilization or a period of accumulation if strong buying returns near key support.

Currently, the price is forming what resembles a symmetrical triangle or a descending consolidation wedge, following the sharp uptrend. This structure often appears in continuation patterns but can also break downward in cases of failing volume or macro weakness. The rejection from $3.50 and the inability to reclaim $2.50 suggests that bulls are currently struggling. However, if the price holds above $1.77 and establishes a higher low in the coming weeks, a bullish breakout remains in play. With this being a weekly chart, even slight weekly movements can foreshadow strong directional shifts in subsequent candles.

Projecting over the next 100 weekly candlesticks, which spans roughly two years, the potential for renewed bullish cycles remains viable. If XRP can consolidate between $1.70 and $2.50 and reclaim the $2.80–$3.00 resistance zone, it could reattempt the previous high near $3.80. A breakout above this level could push the price toward $5.50–$6.00 based on the Fibonacci extension and previous rally symmetry. Conversely, a breakdown below $1.70 could drag XRP toward $1.00 or even retest the $0.70 zone from early 2024. Much of this depends on macro market conditions, including regulatory developments.