XRP's U.S. Market Share Surges 16% as Solana's Declines 9%

Solana's market share in the U.S. has experienced a notable decline, falling to 16% from the 25-30% range it maintained throughout 2022. This reduction in market presence has sparked discussions about the potential approval of a spot XRP ETF, as investors may be seeking alternatives to Solana. XRP's share of spot trading volume on U.S. exchanges has risen to its highest level since before the SEC’s 2021 lawsuit, which had led to widespread delistings of the token. This recovery in the U.S. market activity is significant as incoming SEC Chair Paul Atkins prepares to take office, facing several deadlines for crypto-related ETF applications that could push digital asset decisions to the forefront of his agenda.

XRP's path to ETF approval differs from Bitcoin's journey. While BTC’s approval was largely driven by Grayscale’s successful legal challenge, XRP lacks an active futures market. Additionally, its trading volume remains heavily concentrated offshore despite recent improvements in U.S. market share. However, the recent approval of a 2x leveraged XRP ETF from Teucrium may have created a precedent that benefits spot XRP ETF applications. Since this leveraged product relies on European ETPs and swap agreements to deliver twice the daily returns of XRP, it becomes increasingly difficult for regulators to argue that a spot product presents greater risks to investors.

Market depth metrics further strengthen XRP’s position relative to other altcoin contenders. XRP and SOL currently boast the highest average 1% market depth on vetted exchanges, with Cardano’s ADA placing third. Notably, XRP’s market depth has surged since late 2024, overtaking Sol and doubling ADA. This indicates that XRP has a deeper market compared to other altcoins, which is a crucial factor for ETF approval. The liquidity of XRP, which consistently ranks in the top 5 globally, further supports its eligibility for ETF approval. High liquidity ensures smoother execution and less slippage, which are crucial for fund managers and retail traders.

The legal landscape for XRP has also seen positive developments. The announcement by Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse that the SEC dropped its case against Ripple has bolstered investor confidence. This legal victory, coupled with XRP's resilience in the face of macro headwinds and geopolitical tensions, has positioned XRP favorably in the eyes of potential ETF investors. The technical indicators for XRP also paint a promising picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 60, indicating balanced momentum, and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $2.03, serving as a key level to watch. Despite recent short-term dips, the overall sentiment remains bullish, with XRP's price currently at $2.08. If XRP breaks above $2.11 with strength, it could trigger a fresh rally, potentially reaching $2.25 or higher as ETF speculation heats up.

In contrast, Solana's recent performance has been more volatile. While it experienced a short-term bullish wave, rising to about $131 with a gain of 1.76% for the day, its overall market share has declined. This volatility and the lack of a clear upward trend in Solana's market share could be contributing factors to investors' preference for XRP. The approval of a spot XRP ETF would open up new avenues for investment, potentially attracting more institutional and retail investors. This could lead to increased liquidity and a more stable market for XRP, further solidifying its position as a top contender in the cryptocurrency space. The current market dynamics and legal developments suggest that the chances of XRP ETF approval are looking more favorable, especially in light of Solana's declining market share.