Solana's Price Drops 60% From January Peak, Traders Predict Further 25% Decline

Solana's price has been on a downward trajectory this week, with traders on Polymarket predicting a potential crash to $80 in April. As of Wednesday, Solana (SOL) was trading at $106, marking a decline of over 60% from its peak in January. A poll on Polymarket, with over $2 million in assets, suggests that SOL could drop to $80 by the end of April, representing a further 25% decline from its current levels. Approximately 35% of participants in the poll anticipate the token reaching this price point, while only 15% foresee it rising to $150.

The Solana ecosystem has encountered several challenges in recent months. The total market capitalization of all memecoins on the network has plummeted from over $30 billion in January to just $5.6 billion. Additionally, Solana is no longer the leading player in the decentralized exchange industry, a position it held in the past few months. The total volume handled by protocols on the network in the last 30 days was $45 billion, which is lower than Ethereum’s $57.9 billion. The top decentralized exchange (DEX) protocols on Solana include Orca, Meteora, Pump, and Raydium.

Despite these setbacks, there have been some positive developments. Janover, a NASDAQ-listed company, has started accumulating SOL, aiming to become the “MicroStrategy of Solana.” Furthermore, Blackrock, the world's largest asset manager, has recently expanded its $1 billion BUIDL fund to include the Solana network.

Technical indicators also suggest further downside for Solana in the coming weeks. On the daily chart, SOL has dropped from nearly $300 in January to just over $100. It has moved below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which is often considered the “golden ratio” where rebounds typically occur. The SOL price has also reached the oversold point of the Murrey Math Lines, and the Relative Strength Index has formed a descending channel. The coin has fallen below the crucial support at $120, a level it has not dropped below since April of last year.

The Average Directional Index has remained above 23, indicating that the current downtrend is strong. As a result, the price may continue to fall, with the next target at the psychological level of $80. If this level is breached, the next support lies at $70, which is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. A move back above the 50% retracement point at $150 would invalidate the current bearish outlook.