Ripple's Retail Participation Surges 490% in Three Years, Outpacing Bitcoin

Ripple has experienced a significant surge in retail participation, with a 490% increase in active addresses over the past three years, outpacing Bitcoin's growth during the same period. This surge in activity is particularly notable as half of the expansion occurred in the fourth quarter of last year, resulting in a 460% quarterly uptick. This growth far surpassed Bitcoin’s 61% gain to its then all-time high of $108,364.

Despite this impressive growth, Ripple's price action on the 1D chart has been erratic, failing to break through key resistance levels. Unlike Bitcoin, which faces evident selling pressure, Ripple appears to have entered a “retail-driven” speculative loop. This is evident from the fact that momentum continued as Ripple closed Q1 at its New Year opening price, while Bitcoin ended the quarter down 10.71%.

Five years after its protracted legal battle, Ripple’s victory over the SEC failed to deliver the breakout many had anticipated. Despite an 11.56% intraday surge on the news, XRP once again faced strong resistance at $2.60, marking its second rejection at this key level in March. At the time of writing, XRP was consolidating around $2, a historically validated support level that has often preceded bullish reversals.

Exchange outflows have increased by 1.74%, with a total of 2.23 billion XRP withdrawn at $2.06, signaling a potential supply squeeze as another FOMO-driven accumulation phase unfolds. Additionally, speculative capital inflows are accelerating. Open Interest (OI) has climbed 1.06% to $3.65 billion, while estimated high-risk leveraged positions in derivatives markets have risen by 1.14%, signaling a growing risk appetite among leveraged traders.

These factors collectively bolster the probability of dip-buying activity, as bid-side liquidity strengthens amid intensifying retail-driven FOMO. However, while a 490% surge in retail participation has reinforced a key liquidity zone at $2, it also signals an overheated speculative demand environment. This increase in speculative demand raises the likelihood of heightened volatility and potential price inefficiencies.

Notably, the top three most dominant whale cohorts remain well below their prior accumulation peaks, reinforcing an extended distribution phase. This sustained sell-side pressure has created a structural liquidity overhang, suppressing XRP’s ability to reclaim the critical $3 resistance level. A Q2 breakout appears structurally weak. The Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (STH-NUPL) metric confirms heightened volatility.

Historically, each time Ripple approaches the $2.60 resistance level, STH-NUPL reverts into the capitulation zone, signaling weak-handed exits following speculative FOMO-driven inflows. This suggests a highly retail-driven market structure, where premature profit-taking at key breakeven points exacerbate supply-side inefficiencies. Consequently, XRP remains range-bound, failing to generate the necessary demand absorption required for a sustained breakout beyond resistance.

Unless buy-side liquidity strengthens at key resistance levels, Ripple is likely to remain trapped in a retail-dominated speculative feedback loop, making a $3 reclaim in Q2 increasingly unlikely.