Reddit vs. Meta: A Race to 2040

Reddit and Meta Platforms have captured the world's attention with their remarkable growth and market prowess. While Reddit's stock price has quadrupled since its IPO, it still pales in comparison to Meta's $1.4 trillion market cap. The question on everyone's mind: can Reddit catch up and surpass Meta by 2040? Let's dive into the numbers and explore the potential trajectories of these tech giants.

Reddit's growth story has been nothing short of impressive. With a user base of 97.2 million daily active users, it's already comparable to pre-IPO Facebook. But to catch up to Meta, Reddit must maintain its rapid growth and increase its user base significantly. Reddit's strategy of converting logged-out users to logged-in ones is paying off, with a 45% login rate in Q3 2024, up from 37% in Q1. This, coupled with a 47% year-over-year (YOY) growth in daily active users (DAUs), bodes well for the company's future.

However, Meta's user base of 3.29 billion daily active people across its apps gives it a substantial advantage. Meta's historical growth rate of 38% from 2010 to 2023 is a testament to its ability to maintain user engagement and expand its platforms. While Reddit's growth is remarkable, it's less predictable and more tied to news cycles, making it challenging to replicate Meta's consistent growth trajectory.

To close the gap, Reddit must diversify its revenue streams and expand its offerings. Acquiring or partnering with platforms in online gaming, e-commerce, and video streaming could help Reddit attract a broader user base and generate new revenue streams. Additionally, Reddit must maintain its strong operational efficiency, as evidenced by its expanding gross and adjusted EBITDA margins.

Even with these strategic moves, catching up to Meta by 2040 will be an uphill battle. Assuming Reddit matches analysts' estimates through 2026, grows its revenue at a CAGR of 25% from 2026 to 2040, and trades at a 15x sales premium, its market cap could reach $260 billion by 2040. Meanwhile, Meta, growing at a CAGR of 15% from 2023 to 2040 and trading at a 10x sales multiple, could reach a whopping $14.5 trillion by the same year.

In conclusion, while Reddit's growth story is impressive, catching up to Meta by 2040 will be challenging. Reddit must maintain its rapid growth, diversify its revenue streams, and improve its platform stickiness to compete with Meta's vast user base and consistent growth. Investors should closely monitor these tech giants' progress, as their long-term success will depend on how well they adapt to the ever-changing market landscape.