Nebius Group vs. CoreWeave: Which AI Infrastructure Play Offers Stronger Long-Term Value?

The AI infrastructure race has entered a new phase, with Nebius Group and CoreWeave emerging as two of the most compelling yet divergent players. Both companies are capitalizing on the insatiable demand for AI compute, but their strategic positioning, financial discipline, and technological bets could determine which offers stronger long-term value for investors.

Strategic Positioning: Vertical Integration vs. Global Agility

CoreWeave has built its identity on vertical integration and U.S. dominance. Its $9 billion acquisition of Core Scientific, according to CoreWeave & Nebius Stocks, has secured 1.3 gigawatts of power infrastructure, reducing supply chain risks and locking in $500 million in annual cost savings, the same report says. This strategy prioritizes stability and scalability, with a revenue backlog of $30.1 billion as of Q2 2025, per that report. CoreWeave's focus on the U.S. market aligns with the concentration of hyperscalers and AI labs, but it also exposes the company to regional regulatory and energy risks.

Nebius Group, by contrast, is betting on global expansion and agility. Its $2 billion capital investment plan for 2025, according to a Microsoft deal analysis, is fueling data centers in Europe, the U.S., and the Middle East, with a strategic emphasis on data sovereignty and multinational clients. The $17.4 billion Microsoft deal-a five-year GPU infrastructure contract-has not only validated Nebius's capabilities but also positioned it as a key player in Microsoft's AI ecosystem. This partnership, coupled with Nebius's early adoption of NVIDIA's Blackwell superchips in Europe, underscores its ability to pivot quickly to cutting-edge hardware.

Financial Performance: Growth vs. Prudence

CoreWeave's Q2 2025 results highlight its scale: $1.21 billion in revenue and a 62.1% adjusted EBITDA margin, according to the CoreWeave & Nebius Stocks analysis cited above. However, its $10 billion debt load and $20–$23 billion capex forecast raise concerns about leverage. The company's reliance on Microsoft (62% of 2024 revenue, per the AI Cloud Rivalry) also introduces concentration risk, despite its $30.1 billion backlog.

Nebius, meanwhile, is trading on high-growth potential. Its Q2 revenue surged 385% year-over-year to $105.1 million, with the core AI unit achieving positive adjusted EBITDA. While the group-level loss of $21 million reflects its aggressive expansion, Nebius's $1.1 billion ARR guidance and 18.0 current ratio (both noted in the Microsoft deal analysis) suggest financial discipline. The company's debt-to-EBITDA ratio remains manageable, and its revised 2025 revenue guidance ($1.1 billion) signals confidence in converting ARR into binding contracts.

Customer Diversification and Technological Edge

CoreWeave's client base is dominated by hyperscalers and AI labs, including Microsoft and OpenAI, as discussed in the AI Cloud Rivalry piece. Its recent integration of NVIDIA's GB200 NVL72 systems cements its role as a go-to provider for high-performance workloads. However, its vertically integrated model may limit flexibility in a rapidly evolving market.

Nebius, by contrast, is diversifying its customer mix. While it serves AI startups and enterprise teams, its Microsoft deal ensures a steady revenue stream. Technologically, Nebius's partnerships with Metaflow, D Stack, and SkyPilot enhance its appeal to a broader audience. Its early adoption of NVIDIA's Blackwell Ultra AI Factory Platform also gives it a first-mover advantage in hardware innovation.

Risk and Reward: A Balancing Act

CoreWeave's risks are clear: high debt, rising interest expenses ($264 million in Q1 2025), and dependence on a few large clients. Its U.S.-centric strategy may also struggle to keep pace with global demand.

Nebius's risks are more speculative. Its rapid international expansion requires execution discipline, and its reliance on converting ARR into contracts could lead to volatility. However, its Microsoft partnership and agile model position it to capitalize on emerging markets and technological shifts.

Conclusion: The Long-Term Winner

While CoreWeave's vertical integration and backlog provide near-term visibility, Nebius's global agility, Microsoft validation, and financial discipline make it the stronger long-term play. The AI infrastructure market is expected to reach $200 billion by 2028, according to the CoreWeave & Nebius Stocks analysis, and Nebius's ability to scale internationally while leveraging cutting-edge hardware gives it a structural advantage. CoreWeave remains a formidable competitor, but Nebius's strategic flexibility and de-risked growth path align more closely with the dynamic nature of the AI revolution.