Market Update: Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ on March 17, 2025

Stocks turned positive at the opening bell as investors analyzed the latest retail sales data and prepared for the Federal Reserve’s two day meeting, which begins Tuesday. A little less than three hours into the trading session, the DOW was up 246 points or 0.59%, the S&P 500 was up 16 points or 0.29%, but the NASDAQ was down 36 points roughly 0.21%. Adding downward pressure on stocks, citi analysts cut their recommendation for U.S. stocks to "neutral" from "overweight" on Monday, stating that the U.S. economy may no longer outpace the rest of the world in the coming months.

Federal Reserve Expectations

Deutsche Bank issued a stark warning Monday morning, telling clients the market sell-off, which began a few weeks ago, has another 6% to go. This prediction comes as consumer and corporate confidence plummets, raising concerns about the broader economic outlook. The Fed’s quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, or SEP, will offer investors the central bank’s latest expectations for the U.S. economy. Also referred to as the dot plot, the SEP plots expectations of the 19 Federal Reserve Governors and Bank Presidents for economic growth, unemployment, inflation, and the Fed's policy rate over the next several years. Analysts expect the Fed to hold interest rates at the current range between 4.25% and 4.5%.

Ask Aime: Will the Federal Reserve's meeting affect stock prices?

Latest Retail Sales

After a sluggish January, the retail sector saw a 0.2% increase in sales, a stark contrast to the downwardly revised decline of 1.2% the prior month. This uptick, though modest, signals a promising trend for the retail industry, which has been grappling with economic uncertainties and rising inflation.

The 'bounce back' in retail sales can be attributed to several key factors. Firstly, the control group, which strips out non-core sectors and feeds directly into gross domestic product calculations, rose by a better than expected 1%. This indicates that underlying readings showed solid growth despite the economic headwinds. Online spending also played a crucial role, with nonstore retailers reporting a 2.4% increase. Health and personal care sectors saw a 1.7% gain, while food and beverage outlets experienced a 0.4% increase. These factors collectively contributed to the positive momentum in retail sales.

Nvidia’s GTC

NVIDIA's investors are holding their breath, hoping that Jensen Huang's keynote speech at the GTC conference on Tuesday will deliver enough optimism to sustain the stock's recent rebound from its lows.

So far this year, NVIDIA's stock has fallen roughly 12%, though it has recently rebounded from its March lows. Uncertainty surrounding Trump-era tariffs and concerns about AI spending by big tech companies have negatively impacted market sentiment. alec Young, Chief Investment Strategist at Mapsignals, said: "The market is very skeptical on the stock," said Young, and he added that the market doesn't believe this growth will materialize.