JPMorgan Cuts 2028 Stablecoin Revenue Forecast to $500B-$750B Citing Infrastructure, Adoption, Regulation

JPMorgan Chase & Co. has significantly revised its outlook for the stablecoin market, cutting its 2028 revenue forecast to between $500 billion and $750 billion from earlier expectations of up to $2 trillion. The bank attributes this adjustment to underdeveloped infrastructure, limited real-world adoption, and regulatory uncertainties. While JPMorgan remains optimistic about stablecoins’ long-term potential, it warns that the sector must overcome critical barriers to achieve macroeconomic relevance [1].

The firm’s analysis highlights a stark disconnect between industry hype and practical implementation. Only 6% of stablecoin trading volume is currently linked to real-world payments, with the remainder confined to crypto trading, arbitrage, or decentralized finance (DeFi) activities. JPMorgan argues that the market’s infrastructure—including fiat on-ramps, liquidity tools, and user-friendly platforms—remains insufficient to support widespread adoption. “Mass adoption won’t come without seamless integration, and we’re not there yet,” the bank’s research note states. Regulatory efforts, such as the U.S. GENIUS Act, aim to establish clearer standards but face inconsistent implementation [1].

The bank’s cautious stance contrasts with more bullish forecasts from institutions like Standard Chartered and blockchain think tanks, which predict stablecoin balances could surpass $1-2 trillion if demand grows in cross-border commerce, remittances, and corporate treasury management. However, JPMorgan questions the feasibility of these projections, emphasizing that execution—rather than regulatory frameworks alone—will determine stablecoins’ trajectory. For example, while programmable money and real-time settlements are frequently cited as growth drivers, the bank stresses that these innovations require robust infrastructure and consumer trust [1].

A separate development underscores stablecoins’ evolving role in traditional finance. Tether, the largest stablecoin issuer, now holds 1.6% of U.S. Treasury notes, indirectly linking cryptocurrency markets to government debt dynamics. This crossover has raised concerns among traders, who describe stablecoins as “shadow central banks” with the ability to influence rates without comparable accountability. Meanwhile, major banks including Citi and Bank of America are testing stablecoin prototypes for internal settlements, though large-scale adoption remains experimental [1].

JPMorgan’s revised forecast aligns with broader institutional skepticism. Financial firms like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have similarly tempered expectations for stablecoin dominance, citing the need for clearer legal boundaries before committing to mass adoption. Regulatory pressures, including the EU’s MiCA regulations and U.S. Treasury proposals, have already caused high-profile projects, such as Facebook’s (now Meta) global stablecoin initiative, to stall or abandon plans [1].

Despite the downward revision, JPMorgan acknowledges stablecoins’ growing integration into both crypto and traditional banking. The firm frames its forecast as a realistic assessment of adoption timelines rather than a rejection of the sector’s potential. For developers, the message is clear: usability, compliance, and scalability must be prioritized. For investors, the takeaway is to balance optimism with caution in a market still dominated by speculation.

Source: [1] [JPMorgan Slashes Stablecoin Forecast: Is the $2 Trillion Dream Over?][url1]