Flying High on Restructuring: United Airlines Soars While Post Holds Its Ground

The first quarter of 2025 has become a defining moment for companies navigating post-pandemic restructuring. Two firms—United Airlines and Post Holdings—have emerged as standout performers, balancing strategic cost-cutting with growth investments. Let’s dive into their Q1 results and what they mean for investors.

United Airlines: Restructuring Fuels a Record Quarter

United’s Q1 2025 results are a masterclass in turning crisis into opportunity. The airline reported $13.2 billion in revenue, a 5.4% year-over-year jump, driven by premium cabin demand, international expansion, and disciplined cost management.

Why it matters:
- Cost control: CASM (cost per available seat mile) fell 3.4%, while CASM-ex (excluding fuel) rose just 0.3%, proving restructuring isn’t just about cutting—it’s about smart pivots.
- Capacity discipline: Removing 4% of domestic capacity starting Q3 2025 and retiring 21 aircraft will further squeeze inefficiencies.
- Cash king: $3.7 billion in operating cash flow and $18.3 billion in liquidity give United a war chest to outlast rivals in tough markets.

CEO Scott Kirby’s “United Next” strategy is paying off. By prioritizing premium travelers and optimizing routes, the airline is now flying with the highest on-time performance since 2021, while slashing cancellations. This isn’t just about surviving—it’s about winning.

Post Holdings: Cash Flow Resilience Amid Headwinds

Post Holdings, a consumer goods giant, faced steeper challenges. Its Q1 operating cash flow surged 95% year-over-year to $310.4 million, but share buybacks and strategic investments created a tightrope act.

Key moves:
- Aggressive buybacks: Spent $181 million on shares in Q1 alone, plus an additional $107 million post-quarter, leveraging strong cash flow to return value.
- Betting on growth: Plowed $139 million into CapEx, including cage-free egg facilities and pet food safety upgrades. The $500 million new buyback authorization signals confidence.
- Risks: Avian influenza threatens Foodservice margins, with a projected $30–50 million Q2 headwind.

The company’s $872 million cash balance and $369 million Adjusted EBITDA give it breathing room, but its $6.94 billion debt pile is a ticking clock. Post must balance growth and leverage—a high-wire act that demands close scrutiny.

The Bottom Line: Strategy Trumps Size

Both companies prove that post-restructuring success hinges on execution, not just cuts:
- United’s focus on premium customers and operational efficiency has turned it into a cash machine. Its Q1 $2.3 billion in free cash flow and 3.6% pre-tax margin are proof.
- Post’s cash flow surge is impressive, but its debt and exposure to supply chain shocks (e.g., egg prices) make it riskier. Investors should watch Q2’s avian flu fallout.

Final Take: United is flying higher—its disciplined strategy positions it to dominate post-restructuring. Post, meanwhile, is a high-reward, high-risk play. Both show that in 2025, companies that control costs while investing in their future will outlast the downturn.

Investment Grade:
- Buy United Airlines (UAL): Strong cash flow, premium demand, and operational excellence.
- Hold Post Holdings (POST): Wait for clarity on avian flu impacts and debt management before diving in.

The market’s winners aren’t the biggest—they’re the smartest. These two companies are rewriting the rules.

Disclosure: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.