Ethereum Surges 7% Amid Market Uncertainty

Ethereum (ETH) experienced a significant surge on March 19, 2025, with its price increasing by more than 7%. This upward movement was notable as most other cryptocurrencies also saw gains. On the hourly chart, ETH made a false breakout of the resistance at $2,033. However, if the daily bar closes around or above this mark without a long wick, the upward trend is likely to continue towards the $2,100 area the following day.

On a larger time frame, ETH's price has broken through the resistance at $1,963. If the current bar closes above the crucial $2,000 zone, growth may continue to $2,100. From a mid-term perspective, neither the bulls nor the bears are dominating, as the price is far from key levels. This suggests that sideways trading in the $2,000-$2,200 range is the most likely scenario. At the time of reporting, Ethereum was trading at $2,029.

Despite the recent gains, Ethereum has been consolidating below the $2,000 mark, facing significant selling pressure from whales. Technical indicators suggest a potential bearish trend, with the cryptocurrency opening trading at $1,913 on March 19, 2025, and trading within a narrow range below the $2,000 resistance level. This consolidation comes as investors await the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate decision, adding to market uncertainty.

Analysts have warned that if the downtrend continues, Ethereum's price could slip as low as $1,060. Technical analysis shows a potential bullish breakout to $2,596, but this is contingent on Ethereum regaining momentum above short-term resistance levels. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,413 and the 100-day EMA at $2,695 indicate a bearish trend, while the 200-day EMA at $2,851 reinforces long-term resistance. Ethereum remains firmly below these moving averages, highlighting persistent selling pressure.

The Bearish Balance Power (BBP) indicator at -107.25 suggests that sellers have dominated price action, maintaining downward pressure over the past month. The recent series of lower highs and lower lows further confirm the bearish market structure. However, decreasing volume on red candles implies that selling momentum may be weakening, leaving room for a potential relief rally. A breakout above $2,100 could trigger a short squeeze, forcing bears to cover positions, which may result in a rapid move toward $2,400-$2,500 before an ultimate correction.

Ethereum's DeFi ecosystem has shed $29 billion in total value locked (TVL) over the past 30 days, dropping from $118 billion to $89 billion. This significant capital outflow has been attributed to regulatory concerns, network inefficiencies, and investors shifting toward Bitcoin for stability. The BTC/ETH ratio has hit a record high of 44.6, with Bitcoin trading at $83,000 and Ethereum at $1,900. This widening gap in valuation has reduced Ethereum's market share as investors allocate more capital to Bitcoin.

The upcoming Federal Reserve rate decision is a critical factor that could influence Ethereum's price movement. If the decision sparks a positive market reaction, Ethereum could swiftly breach $2,100, invalidating the bearish outlook and exposing short sellers to significant liquidations. However, failure to reclaim this level could lead to another retest of $1,700-$1,500, extending the current downtrend. Investors are closely monitoring these developments as they navigate the volatile cryptocurrency market.