Ethereum’s Ether Faces 15% Drop as Bearish Momentum Persists

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), has been in a prolonged downtrend, repeatedly entering oversold territory against Bitcoin (BTC) in recent months. This persistent bearish momentum has led analysts to suggest that the downtrend could continue well into 2025. The relative strength index (RSI) on ETH’s 3-day timeframe remains below 30, a level that typically signals a potential bounce. However, historical patterns indicate that previous dips into oversold conditions have not marked a definitive bottom, with each instance followed by another leg lower.

Since mid-2024, the ETH/BTC pair has experienced multiple breakdowns, with losses of around 13%, 21%, 25%, and 19.5% occurring in rapid succession. The 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) are trending lower, confirming the lack of bullish strength. Market analyst @CarpeNoctom highlighted ETH’s negative price performance, noting that the ETH/BTC pair has failed to confirm a bullish divergence on its weekly chart.

The “cursed” ETH/BTC downtrend is particularly notable when compared to the broader crypto market. This includes persistent outflows witnessed across spot ETH ETFs, as well as negative onchain data. The net flows into the spot Ether ETFs have dropped significantly, while Ethereum’s gas fees have decreased substantially. Data analytics platform Nansen argued that they remain cautiously bearish on ETH due to its unfavorable risk/reward ratio compared to BTC and lower-valued altcoins with niche market focus.

A lack of demand for ETH relative to Bitcoin is further visible in its future volume data. Bitcoin futures volume has rebounded significantly, while ETH’s trading activity remains mostly flat. The ETH/BTC pair is forming a bear pennant pattern on the daily chart, characterized by a period of consolidation within converging trendlines forming after a steep decline. A bear pennant technically resolves when the price drops below the lower trendline and falls by as much as the previous downtrend’s height. Applying the same rule on ETH/BTC brings its downside target for April to 0.01968 BTC, down 15% from the current levels.

Despite the looming downside risk, a bullish invalidation could occur if ETH/BTC breaks above the pennant’s upper resistance and flips the 50-day EMA into support. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.