Egg Prices Soar As Bird Flu Spreads: Why Experts Expect Another 45% Increase In 2025

The price of eggs has been on a rollercoaster ride in recent years, with consumers experiencing both highs and lows at the checkout counter. In 2025, experts are predicting another significant increase in egg prices, with a projected 45% surge. This article explores the primary factors contributing to this price hike and the role of consumer behavior and geopolitical events in the global egg market.



Primary Factors Driving Egg Price Increase in 2025

1. Avian Influenza Outbreaks: The ongoing avian flu outbreak has been the most significant contributor to the recent price surge and is expected to continue impacting egg prices in 2025. The virus has led to the culling of millions of egg-laying hens, significantly reducing the supply of eggs. In December 2024 alone, 13.2 million egg-laying chickens were lost due to bird flu, leading to record-high prices and temporary shortages (USDA, Jan. 17, 2025).
2. Holiday Demand: The annual peak in holiday egg demand further exacerbates the supply shortage, driving prices even higher. As the holiday season approaches, consumers are expected to increase their purchases of eggs, putting further pressure on prices.
3. Input Costs: Increased costs for inputs such as feed and labor also contribute to the price surge. As production costs rise, egg producers pass on these increased expenses to consumers in the form of higher prices.

Changes in Consumer Behavior and Demand for Specific Egg Types

The shift in consumer preferences towards cage-free and organic eggs has significantly influenced the egg market dynamics and prices. As consumers seek healthier and more sustainable food options, the demand for these specific egg types has increased. This trend has been particularly evident in Europe, where strict regulations on cage-free eggs have led to a rise in organic and free-range egg production. In the United States, cage-free egg laws in 10 states have also contributed to supply disruptions and price increases. For example, at a Target in Chicago, a dozen large conventional eggs cost $4.49, while a dozen large cage-free eggs were selling for $6.19. This price difference reflects the higher demand and limited supply of cage-free eggs.

Additionally, the growing trend towards plant-based alternatives to traditional eggs has also contributed to the increased demand for specific egg types, as consumers seek out healthier and more sustainable options.

Geopolitical Events and Trade Policies

Geopolitical events and trade policies can significantly impact the global egg market, including the U.S. egg industry and prices. Here are some ways these factors might influence the market in 2025:

1. Trade restrictions and tariffs: Geopolitical tensions and trade disputes can lead to tariffs and other trade restrictions, affecting the import and export of eggs and egg products. If the U.S. imposes or faces tariffs on egg imports, it could lead to a decrease in supply and an increase in prices for consumers. Conversely, if the U.S. lifts tariffs or increases egg exports, it could lead to a decrease in prices due to increased competition and supply.
2. Geopolitical instability: Political instability in egg-producing countries can disrupt supply chains and lead to price fluctuations. For example, if there is political unrest or a change in government in a major egg-producing country, it could lead to disruptions in egg production and exports, impacting the global egg market and U.S. prices.
3. Regional trade agreements: Regional trade agreements, such as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), can facilitate trade and reduce tariffs between member countries. This can lead to increased egg imports and exports, potentially impacting the U.S. egg industry and prices. For instance, if the U.S. signs new trade agreements with other countries, it could lead to an increase in egg imports, which could help stabilize prices or even decrease them due to increased competition.
4. Sanctions and embargoes: Geopolitical tensions can also lead to sanctions and embargoes, which can impact the egg market. For example, if the U.S. imposes sanctions on a major egg-producing country, it could lead to a decrease in egg imports, potentially causing supply shortages and price increases in the U.S. market.
5. Global economic trends: Geopolitical events and trade policies can also influence global economic trends, which can impact the egg market. For instance, if there is a global economic downturn due to geopolitical tensions, it could lead to a decrease in consumer spending on eggs, potentially causing a decrease in prices. Conversely, if there is a global economic boom, it could lead to an increase in consumer spending on eggs, potentially causing an increase in prices.

In conclusion, the projected 45% increase in egg prices in 2025 is primarily driven by the ongoing avian flu outbreak, holiday demand, and input cost increases. Changes in consumer behavior and demand for specific egg types, as well as geopolitical events and trade policies, also play a significant role in shaping the global egg market and U.S. egg industry. As consumers and producers adapt to these factors, the egg market is expected to continue evolving, with both challenges and opportunities presenting themselves in the coming years.