Dogecoin Futures Traders Bullish Despite 32% Price Drop

Futures traders have shown a strong bullish sentiment towards Dogecoin (DOGE), with long positions significantly outpacing short positions across various intervals on Binance Futures. This trend indicates a short-term bullish conviction among traders. On the 5th of April, long accounts reached a peak of 73.33% with a Long/Short Ratio of 2.75. Earlier data from the 3rd of April showed an even stronger sentiment, with long positions surging to 80.23% and a Long/Short Ratio of 4.06, while short accounts fell sharply to just 19.77%. By the 6th of April, long interest had slightly decreased but still accounted for 77.98% of open positions.

However, the data from Binance Futures’ Long/Short Ratio between the 30th of March and the 6th of April reveals a shift in sentiment. Initially, the futures book leaned long, but by April, short positions crept up to 52.66%, while long interest dipped to 47.34%, pulling the Long/Short Ratio down to 0.899—its lowest reading of that week. This divergence becomes clearer when considering spot price and liquidation figures. Between February and April, Dogecoin’s price sank nearly 32%, sliding from $0.248 to $0.169, as aggregated spot data shows. Additionally, volume imploded from 7.18 billion tokens traded to just 353 million, a 95% plunge that hinted at waning conviction in the spot market.

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The decline in whale activity further supports this trend. On the 21st of January, when DOGE hovered near $0.42, there were 466 transactions over $100,000. By the 5th of April, that figure plummeted to just 19, even as the price held around $0.169. This steep fall in large trades strongly implies that institutions or high-net-worth participants have been offloading or avoiding DOGE amid receding prices. On-chain data also projects caution, with Daily Active Addresses (DAA) peaking at 81,861 on the 11th of March and sliding to 63,736 by the 5th of April, a 22% drop. Interestingly, strong DAA did not always align with price increases, revealing a gap between short-term speculative excitement and broader market hesitation.

While bullish sentiment temporarily boosted optimism among DOGE traders, the advantage remains fragile. Spot market and on-chain data highlight waning interest, lower participation from key stakeholders, and ongoing price declines. The data depicts a market in conflict, with brief euphoria in futures trading contrasting sharply with a longer-term cautious outlook. This suggests that while there is short-term bullish conviction, the overall market sentiment remains uncertain and cautious.