CryptoQuant CEO Declares Bitcoin Bull Run Over, Predicts 6-12 Months Bearish Trend
1min read CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has declared that the Bitcoin bull run is over, predicting a period of 6 to 12 months of bearish or sideways price action. This announcement comes after a shift in his outlook, as he had previously maintained a more cautious but optimistic stance on the market. Ki's assessment is based on the Bitcoin PnL Index Cyclical Signals, an index that aggregates multiple on-chain metrics such as mvrv, SOPR, and nupl to identify market tops, bottoms, and cyclical turning points in Bitcoin’s price. According to Ki, this indicator has historically provided reliable buy and sell signals.
Ki explained that an automated alert, sent to his subscribers, combined these metrics into a 365-day moving average. When the trend in this 1-year moving average changes, it often signals a significant market inflection point. He shared a chart illustrating how this signal identifies inflection points where the trend of the 1-year moving average changes. Ki also noted that fresh liquidity is drying up, and new whales are selling Bitcoin at lower prices. He revealed that CryptoQuant users who subscribed to his alerts received this signal a few days before the public announcement, allowing them to adjust their positions accordingly.
Ask Aime: What impact will the bearish Bitcoin price prediction have on the cryptocurrency market?
This latest declaration contrasts with Ki's remarks from just four days ago, on March 14, when he struck a more cautious tone, stating that Bitcoin demand seemed stuck but it was too early to call it a bear market. At that time, he shared a chart of the Bitcoin Apparent Demand (30-day sum) indicator, which had turned slightly negative—an early signal that demand might be tapering off. Although Ki pointed out that demand could still rebound, he acknowledged the possibility of Bitcoin teetering on the edge of a bear market.
Two weeks ago, Ki had a different perspective, opining that the bull cycle was still intact due to strong fundamentals and growing mining capacity. He credited the strong fundamentals and the increasing number of mining rigs coming online for the continued bull cycle. However, he also cautioned that the market could turn if sentiment did not improve, particularly in the United States. With today’s announcement, the warning has evidently crystallized, reflecting a more pessimistic outlook on the market's near-term prospects.
