Bitcoin Whale Activity Surges, Price Drops 20%
2min read The recent surge in the Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio (EWR) above 0.6 has sparked concerns about potential selling pressure in the market. This ratio, which tracks the top-10 exchange inflows, has been on the rise since the fourth quarter of 2024, indicating increased activity from large holders. Historically, when the EWR exceeds this threshold, it often signals that these large holders are preparing to distribute their assets, which could lead to selling pressure in the market.
This heightened whale activity coincides with a significant turning point in Bitcoin’s price action. Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $106,128 on December 17, 2024, but has since entered a correction phase, sliding by approximately 20% to $84,619 as of March 23, 2025. The timing of these movements aligns closely with notable EWR spikes in late 2024 and March 2025. During Bitcoin’s climb from $55,000 to over $100,000, the EWR rose while the price rallied. Although whale inflows did not peak at the exact price top, they steadily increased ahead of it, hinting at early profit-taking. Interestingly, a December EWR reading of 0.36 saw whale inflows climb even as prices retreated. This divergence, where rising whale activity meets falling prices, often indicates distribution.
Exchange netflows have shifted from bullish outflows to signs of redistribution. Between April and October 2024, monthly outflows typically ranged from 30,000 to 60,000 BTC. However, this trend began to change in the fourth quarter. For example, on November 24, 2024, net inflows surged to +7,033 BTC as Bitcoin neared $68,000. Although the price continued to rally, this inflow indicated early movers were realizing profits. On December 17, 2024, the day of Bitcoin’s all-time high, netflow showed a withdrawal of 1,531 BTC. This was smaller compared to previous accumulation phases. In the post-peak period, netflows became volatile. While not outright bearish, moderate netflows combined with a high EWR suggest whales are still transferring coins to exchanges, albeit at a reduced scale.
The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio offers further insights into overall market sentiment. The nupl ratio, which measures unrealized gains within the network, climbed from 0.442 to 0.627 between August and December 2024, reflecting widespread profits and fueling Bitcoin’s rally. By March 2025, NUPL declined to 0.480, surpassing a 21% price drop with a 23.4% decrease. This suggests the market remains profitable but has entered a phase of realization. Crucially, NUPL’s sharper decline compared to the price correction—23.4% vs. 21%—indicates that whales and long-term holders were among those realizing gains. Despite this pullback, the metric continues to hover above bearish territory, signaling that the market remains profitable overall.
Whales are shifting assets, profit-taking is underway, and volatility persists. Yet, with NUPL in profit and netflows stabilizing, the market appears to be holding its ground—cautiously balanced between distribution and resilience. The current situation suggests a pivotal phase for Bitcoin, with large holders potentially preparing for further market movements. The increased activity on exchanges, as indicated by the EWR, could signal potential selling pressure, but the overall market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic.
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