Bitcoin Traders Eye $100,000 Rally Amid Gold Decoupling
2min read Bitcoin (BTC) traders are preparing for a potential rally to $100,000 as the cryptocurrency shows signs of decoupling from the US stock market and gold. This trend, known as the "gold leads, Bitcoin follows" narrative, suggests that Bitcoin's price movements may be influenced by gold's performance.
Recently, Bitcoin demonstrated resilience against market jitters caused by US President Donald Trump’s global tariff announcement. Initially, btc dropped over 3% to around $82,500 but quickly rebounded by roughly 4.5% to cross $84,700. In contrast, the S&P 500 plunged 10.65% this week, and gold, after hitting a record $3,167 on April 3, has slipped 4.8%. This divergence is fueling the narrative that gold's price trends may predict a strong price recovery for Bitcoin toward $100,000.
Historically, gold began a steady ascent, gaining nearly 15% by mid-2019, while Bitcoin remained largely flat. Bitcoin's breakout followed shortly after, rallying over 170% in early 2019 and then surging another 344% by late 2020. This pattern suggests that a reclaim of $100,000 for Bitcoin would imply a handoff from gold to BTC, opening the door to a new period of huge outperformance by BTC over gold and other assets.
Market analyst MacroScope noted that as in previous cycles, this would open the door to a new period of huge outperformance by BTC over gold and other assets. This outlook aligned with alpine fox founder Mike Alfred, who anticipated Bitcoin to grow 10 times or more than gold based on previous instances.
However, there are concerns that Bitcoin may be eyeing a drop toward $65,000, based on a bearish fractal playing out in the Bitcoin-to-gold (BTC/XAU) ratio. The BTC/XAU ratio is flashing a familiar pattern that traders last saw in 2021. The breakdown followed a second major support test at the 50-2W exponential moving average.
Ask Aime: What's driving Bitcoin's decoupling from the US stock market and gold?
BTC/XAU is now repeating this fractal and once again testing the red 50-EMA as support. In the previous cycle, Bitcoin consolidated around the same EMA level before breaking decisively lower, eventually finding support at the 200-2W EMA. If history repeats, BTC/XAU could be on track for a deeper correction, especially if macro conditions worsen.
From a fundamental perspective, Bitcoin’s price outlook appears skewed to the downside. Investors are concerned that President Donald Trump's global tariff war could spiral into a full-blown trade war and trigger a US recession. Risk assets like Bitcoin tend to underperform during economic contractions.
Further dampening sentiment, on April 4, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against expectations for near-term interest rate cuts. Powell warned that inflation progress remains uneven, signaling a prolonged high-rate environment that may add more pressure to Bitcoin’s upside momentum.
Nonetheless, most bond traders see three consecutive rate cuts until the Fed’s September meeting. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
