Bitcoin May Surge 50% In Short Term, Says Economist

Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson has expressed a bullish outlook for Bitcoin (BTC), suggesting that there is a 75% chance that the asset will hit new highs within the next nine months. Peterson's analysis is based on Bitcoin's current position near the lower bound of its historical range, which aligns with the bottom 25% threshold, indicating a strong likelihood of a positive rally.

Peterson's statements are supported by an earlier study that identified April and October as the months with the most significant bullish performance for Bitcoin over the past decade. According to the analyst's forecast, there is a 50% chance that Bitcoin will gain more than 50% in the short term. This optimistic outlook is further bolstered by the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF, which could bring substantial liquidity inflows into the market. The approval of such an ETF is seen as a major catalyst for Bitcoin's price, as it would provide institutional investors with a regulated and accessible way to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency.

The current market conditions, with Bitcoin hovering under $90,000, present a unique opportunity for investors. The cryptocurrency's price has been relatively stable, allowing for a period of accumulation before a potential breakout. This stability is also reflected in the broader market, where other cryptocurrencies are experiencing similar trends. The overall sentiment among investors is one of cautious optimism, with many expecting a bullish run in the near future.

However, the potential for new highs in Bitcoin's price is not without its challenges. The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility, and external factors such as regulatory changes and macroeconomic conditions can significantly impact price movements. Despite these challenges, the historical data and current market trends suggest that Bitcoin is well-positioned to overcome these obstacles and achieve new highs by 2025.

According to an anonymous analyst, the realized price for short-term whales is $91,000, while most highly active addresses hold a cost basis between $84,000 and $85,000. A dip below the cost basis could trigger selling, making the $84,000 to $85,000 range a critical liquidity zone. These onchain cost basis levels represent decision zones where market psychology shifts, and traders and investors should closely monitor price reactions in these areas to gauge trend strength and potential reversals.