Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Face $7 Billion Loss in 30 Days
1min read Short-term Bitcoin holders have incurred significant losses, with realized losses amounting to $7 billion over the past 30 days. This marks the highest realized loss event of the current cycle, although it is notably lower than the peaks seen during the major drawdowns of May 2021 and June 2022, which reached $19.8 billion and $20.7 billion respectively. This indicates that while losses are mounting, many investors are exiting before extreme capitulation occurs, suggesting a potential sign of broader market resilience.
Data from Glassnode shows that the relative unrealized losses for short-term holders (STHs) are nearing the +2 standard deviation level, a threshold historically associated with peak distress. However, these losses remain within the upper bounds typically seen during bull markets, indicating that the market has not yet reached a capitulation point. This suggests that the current phase may be a natural cooling period within a broader bull trend.
Bitcoin's price is currently trading at $84,322, hovering just below its 50-day moving average of $85,141 and well beneath the 200-day moving average at $95,174. These levels form key resistance zones and may continue to suppress upward momentum, especially if short-term holder sentiment remains weak. The Bollinger Bands also highlight a tightening range, suggesting a likely breakout ahead. However, with short-term holders under pressure, the bias could tilt bearish unless new demand enters the market.
The combination of rising unrealized and growing realized losses indicates elevated risk, particularly for those holding Bitcoin acquired at recent highs. However, the fact that these losses remain within historical bull market patterns suggests that a macro reversal is not yet confirmed. If Bitcoin can reclaim the $85,000 level and flip it into support, it could renew confidence among STHs. Conversely, failure to hold $83,000 could lead to more selling while testing lower supports near $80,000.
Overall, short-term pain is evident but not yet extreme. As long as Bitcoin holds above key psychological levels and macro flows remain intact, this correction may serve more as a reset than a reversal. The behavior of short-term holders will be critical in determining the near-term trend direction of Bitcoin's price.
