Bitcoin Plunges: Experts Warn of Six-Month Slump to $73,000

Bitcoin's price has taken a significant tumble, with experts warning of a potential six-month slump to around $73,000. The flagship digital asset reached a peak of $99,493 late last week, only to retreat to roughly $91,500 at press time, marking a -5.5% decline since Monday. This downturn not only shatters Bitcoin's attempt to hold above $95,000 but also places it on the verge of losing its critical 97-day trading range between $91,000 and $102,000. Notably, Bitcoin's price has broken below the descending trend channel that has been in play since January 20.

Ari Paul, co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of BlockTower Capital, offered a wide-ranging view on Bitcoin's trajectory and the broader macroeconomic environment. In a post on X, Paul touched on the potential for continued equity-market weakness and its knock-on effect on digital assets. He predicts that the leading cryptocurrency will "act like a blend of gold and S&P 500," adding, "if gold remains strong, than that would suggest Bitcoin would outperform losing equities, but maybe not by much. A retrace to ~$73k-$77k seems plausible, I’d probably add there." Despite the near-term volatility, Paul remains optimistic: "I remain confident crypto bull market not over, but this is looking increasingly different from prior cycles, maybe substantially slower and longer. My base case is that crypto will lead the general macro inflation turn, so maybe crypto bull run resumes in 6 months and equities turn up in 9. The dates given are just indications of my guesstimates. I place no weight on the exact timeframes."

BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes also took to X to warn of an imminent downward push. He pointed to the mechanics of Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and futures market arbitrage as potential drivers of increased selling pressure. "Bitcoin goblin town incoming: Lots of IBIT holders are hedge funds that went long ETF short CME future to earn a yield greater than where they fund, short term US treasuries. If that basis drops as BTC falls, then these funds will sell IBIT and buy back CME futures. These funds are in profit, and given basis is