Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Reduce Spending by 56% Amid Market Volatility

Bitcoin has experienced a notable shift in the behavior of its long-term holders, with spending activity among 3-6 million BTC holders dropping significantly. Over the past two months, despite extreme market volatility, these holders have seen their wealth rise sharply. According to Glassnode, the LTH MVRV ratio has maintained positive momentum since December 2024, indicating that the value of BTC for long-term holders remains relatively high compared to its cost basis. This positive momentum reflects renewed confidence among these holders, who acquired many of their coins near all-time high levels.

The reduced spending activity among long-term holders supports the notion that recent top buyers are maintaining their positions instead of selling, even amid ongoing market volatility. This trend is evident in the sustained decline of Bitcoin’s LTH spent supply since February 2025, with the amount spent decreasing from a high of $18 billion to $8 billion as of March 31, 2025. This decline suggests that holders are spending less BTC, reflecting a rising accumulation trend among long-term holders. With increased holding, it indicates that investors are optimistic about the long-term potential of BTC and anticipate more gains.

Looking further, across the 2023-2025 cycle, long-term holders have distributed over 2 million BTC. This distribution has been followed by a strong re-accumulation, helping absorb the sell side pressure. This cyclical balance has played a key role in stabilizing Bitcoin’s price action. With long-term holders maintaining their optimism, Bitcoin is unlikely to face significant sell pressure, as this group continues to hold rather than sell. A reduced spending rate among long-term holders enables BTC to absorb selling pressure from short-term and speculative investors.

This balance between selling and accumulation suggests that Bitcoin will likely trade within a consolidation range. Short-term and speculative investors are entering the market to capitalize on rebounds and take profits. The bullish sentiment among long-term holders positions Bitcoin for potential price gains. If their conviction persists, BTC is expected to hold firmly above $81k, paving the way for a possible rebound toward $87,500. However, if their conviction falters, Bitcoin may experience a sharp decline, dropping below $80k again. As long as long-term holders continue to hold, there is room for growth.