Bitcoin Could Hit $250,000 by 2025, Says Arthur Hayes

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer of Maelstrom, has made a bold prediction that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2025. This forecast is based on the potential shift in the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy towards quantitative easing (QE). Hayes believes that such a move by the Fed would inject significant liquidity into the financial markets, which could drive up the price of Bitcoin.

Hayes' prediction is rooted in the idea that quantitative easing involves the central bank purchasing assets, such as government bonds, to increase the money supply and stimulate economic activity. This increased liquidity can lead to higher asset prices, including cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. According to Hayes, the Fed's transition to QE would create a favorable environment for Bitcoin, as investors seek out alternative assets to hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty.

Hayes wrote in an April 1 Substack post, "If my analysis of the Fed’s major pivot from QT to QE for treasuries is correct, then Bitcoin hit a local low of $76,500 last month, and now we begin the ascent to $250,000 by year-end." The Fed reduced the Treasury runoff cap to $5 billion per month from $25 billion effective April 1, while keeping mortgage-backed securities (MBS) runoff steady at $35 billion. Hayes added, "Mathematically, that keeps the Fed balance sheet constant; however, that is treasury QE. Bitcoin will scream higher once this is formally announced."

Hayes' forecast is not without its critics. Some analysts are eying a more conservative Bitcoin price top based on BTC’s correlation with the global liquidity index. Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, estimates that the growing money supply could push Bitcoin’s price above $132,000 before the end of 2025. However, Hayes remains optimistic about Bitcoin's prospects, noting that Bitcoin's unique characteristics, such as its fixed supply and decentralized nature, make it an attractive investment option during times of economic turmoil.

Hayes has been "buying Bitcoin and shitcoins at all levels between $90,000 to $76,500," showcasing his conviction in the crypto market for the rest of 2025. The pace of capital deployment will increase or decrease depending on the accuracy of his predictions. Despite the optimistic prediction, many market participants are betting on a lower Bitcoin price top for the end of 2025. Only 9% of traders have placed bets on Bitcoin hitting $250,000, while 60% expect Bitcoin to hit $110,000 in 2025, according to a decentralized predictions market.

In summary, Arthur Hayes' prediction that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2025 is based on the potential shift in the Fed's monetary policy towards quantitative easing. This move, according to Hayes, would inject significant liquidity into the financial markets, driving up the price of Bitcoin. While the prediction is ambitious, Hayes' expertise and the unique characteristics of Bitcoin make it a compelling forecast.