Bitcoin's Futures Market Indicates 31% Price Drop, 80% Correction Complete

Bitcoin’s futures market indicates a potential price cooldown following several weeks of correction. Data from CryptoQuant shows that the BTC-USDT futures leverage ratio relative to open interest (OI) has halved since its peak in early 2025. This significant de-leveraging is due to massive liquidations over the past few weeks, which have removed a majority of traders from the market. The current market conditions suggest a healthier reset, not overheated, and could pave the way for a steady price recovery.

Bitcoin’s open interest dropped 28% from $71.8 billion on Dec. 18 to $51.8 billion on April 8. This highlights the extent of the current deleveraging event. While this may cause short-term volatility, as fewer market players control the price, it also positions BTC for long-term stability, offering an advantage in the current uncertain trend.

In an X post, Sina, the co-founder of 21st Capital, updated his Bitcoin Quantile Model and stated that “Bitcoin is getting significantly de-risked here.” The analyst explained that Bitcoin might have already completed 75-80% of its correction, declining from $109,000 to $74,500. Historically, prices have fallen by as much as 34% during the six-to-eight-week span of such trends. Currently, Bitcoin has dropped 31% from its all-time high, and a further decline to $72,000-$70,000 would bring it to approximately 34%. Sina added, “Absent a recession, $70K is my worst-case scenario. While the macro backdrop remains grim and further sell-off is possible, we think Bitcoin is deeply undervalued for a long-term investor.”

However, the likelihood of an immediate recovery remains low, as Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. expects BTC to move sideways in the “volatility corridor.” The volatility corridor identified a price range of $75,000 to $96,000, outlined with the help of short-term holders’ realized prices over different time periods. Adler Jr. said that it was possible that BTC would consolidate between these levels over the next few weeks but warned that the price must hold a position above the 365-day simple moving average. A break below the key indicator could potentially lead to a new yearly low below the $74,500 level, with the ideal price being $70,000, as noted earlier.

Bitcoin has seen a significant de-risking phase, with an analyst suggesting that nearly 80% of the cyclical price correction has been completed. This assessment comes at a time when the cryptocurrency market is navigating through various challenges, including regulatory uncertainties and macroeconomic factors. The analyst's perspective highlights a potential stabilization in Bitcoin's price, which has been under pressure due to broader market dynamics.

The cyclical price correction in Bitcoin is a natural part of its market cycle, characterized by periods of rapid growth followed by corrections. According to the analyst, the current correction phase is nearing its end, which could signal a more stable price environment in the near future. This stabilization is crucial for investors who have been cautious about the volatility associated with Bitcoin.

The analyst's view is based on the observation that Bitcoin has undergone a substantial price adjustment, which has reduced the risk associated with further significant declines. This de-risking process is essential for attracting institutional investors who are more risk-averse and require a stable investment environment. The completion of nearly 80% of the cyclical price correction suggests that the worst of the price volatility may be behind, paving the way for a more predictable price movement.

The analyst's forecast is particularly relevant given the current economic landscape, where traditional markets are also experiencing volatility due to factors such as trade tensions and geopolitical risks. In this context, Bitcoin's de-risking phase could make it a more attractive option for investors seeking diversification away from traditional assets. The cryptocurrency's decentralized nature and limited supply make it a potential hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty.

However, it is important to note that the analyst's forecast is based on current market conditions and may be subject to change. The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility, and unexpected events can lead to significant price movements. Investors should therefore approach the analyst's forecast with caution and conduct their own research before making investment decisions.

In summary, the analyst's view that Bitcoin has significantly de-risked and that nearly 80% of the cyclical price correction is done provides a positive outlook for the cryptocurrency. This de-risking phase could attract more institutional investors and stabilize the price, making Bitcoin a more attractive investment option in the current economic environment. However, investors should remain vigilant and consider the potential risks associated with the volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market.