Bitcoin Ends Q1 With 13% Loss Amid US Trade Tariff Fears

Bitcoin (BTC) is ending the first quarter of the year with a 13% loss, as new macroeconomic volatility looms on the horizon. The price of BTC is at risk of dipping below $80,000 due to new US trade tariffs, which are weighing on the sentiment of risk assets. Crypto traders are particularly concerned about April 2, dubbed “Liberation Day” by President Donald Trump, while gold prices are rising.

Despite the gloomy outlook, Bitcoin has had a relatively mild March. However, the first quarter of the year is shaping up to be the worst since 2018. Profitability indicators suggest a bull market drawdown with no clear bottom in sight. The Coinbase Premium has shown resilience amid the price dip, indicating that panic sellers have already exited the market.

Bitcoin traders are on edge this week as US trade tariffs follow the monthly and quarterly candle closes. The recipe for risk-asset volatility has many market participants bracing for the worst as BTC price action edges increasingly close to $80,000. The lowest levels in around two weeks at around $81,200 accompanied the March 30 weekly close. Popular trader CrypNuevo noted a new wick to the downside, suggesting that the price could soon fill the gap. Fellow trading account HTL-NL observed a “bearish engulfing” candle on the weekly chart, indicating a potential downward trend.

The picture on longer timeframes is no better unless the risk-asset landscape improves. Bitcoin and US stocks are headed for so-called “death crosses,” as short-term losses catch up to the broader uptrend. A look at exchange order book data shows bid and ask liquidity clustered tightly around price. CrypNuevo paid particular attention to the 50-day and 50-week exponential moving averages (EMAs), noting compression between them, which often leads to an aggressive move.

US employment data and Federal Reserve officials are among the key events on the radar for risk-asset traders this week. Job openings, jobless claims, and nonfarm payrolls are all due, with the first round of numbers released on April 2. However, this could likely be overshadowed by the start of new US trade tariffs set to begin on the same day. The tariffs will impact around $1.5 trillion worth of US imports by the end of the month. Market commentators are in “wait and see” mode, with Fed Chair Powell set to speak on the economic outlook at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing (SABEW) Annual Conference in Arlington, Virginia on April 4.

As both the monthly and quarterly candles prepare to close, Bitcoin is looking at distinctly uninspiring mid-term performance. Data shows BTC/USD down 12.7% in Q1, making it the worst first quarter of the year since 2018. Conditions have worsened for hodlers thanks to gold outperforming as a safe-haven bet, hitting repeated all-time highs while BTC/USD fell to 30% from its January peak. That bull market correction, however, remains fairly standard by historical standards. Data from onchain analytics firm Glassnode confirms that the maximum drawdown in previous bull markets passed 60%.

Others agree that despite the frustrating lack of further price upside, Bitcoin has, in fact, weathered the macroeconomic storm fairly well. On a monthly basis, the picture likewise remains far from the most bearish BTC price scenarios — 2.7% losses since March 1, making for a fairly average third month of the year. A key Bitcoin price metric continues to give off warning signals this week as the market flushes out “overheated” conditions. The market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio, which compares the market cap to realized cap to determine short-term and long-term profitability, is trending back toward its long-term average. In early March, the tool printed a so-called “death cross” — its short-term moving average crossed below a long-term equivalent, in keeping with the profit drawdown sparked by Bitcoin’s descent below $80,000.

With the MVRV now converging toward its long-term historical average, it appears the market has exited the overheated zone. However, no definitive bottom signal has emerged yet. The return of the Coinbase Premium has been painfully slow this quarter as episodes of panic selling characterize recent market behavior. The Premium, which is the difference in spot price between the Coinbase BTC/USD and Binance BTC/USDT pairs, currently hovers around neutral. While unremarkable in and of itself, the metric’s resilience to ongoing BTC price pressure caught the eye of CryptoQuant contributor Crypto Sunmoon. “Panic selling is decreasing,” he concluded in another Quicktake post this weekend. A positive Premium reflects increasing US investor confidence in adding BTC exposure and is traditionally a key ingredient in sustainable Bitcoin bull markets. Meanwhile, its resistance to the downside in the face of falling prices leads Sumoon to suspect a “possible trend reversal.”