Bitcoin Drops 3.16% in a Month, Analysts Predict New Highs by June 2025

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around $85,880, marking a 3.16% decrease over the past month. Despite this recent volatility, the cryptocurrency has shown resilience, gaining nearly 10% since dipping below $80,000 earlier in March. This recovery comes amidst ongoing concerns about U.S. trade tariffs and broader macroeconomic factors.

Real Vision's chief crypto analyst, Jamie Coutts, predicts that Bitcoin could reach new all-time highs sooner than anticipated. Coutts' optimism is based on several factors, including easing financial conditions, a weakening U.S. dollar, and increased liquidity from the People’s Bank of China since early 2025. According to Coutts, the market may be underestimating the speed at which Bitcoin could surge, potentially hitting new all-time highs before the second quarter of 2025 is out. He forecasts a range from a worst-case price of $102,000 to a best-case scenario of $123,000 by June 1. This would represent a 13% gain over Bitcoin’s current all-time high of $109,000, which it reached on January 20.

Data from Polymarket, a leading prediction platform, suggests that BTC could hit $138,617 by the end of 2025—a 60% jump from today’s price. This ceiling represents a market regaining its footing after tariff-related uncertainty. Technical analysis indicates that Bitcoin is testing a critical resistance zone near $88,000, aligning with its 50-day moving average. A breakout above this level could pave the way for a retest of its all-time high near $108,000. However, failure to hold support at $85,000 might trigger a pullback to $76,000—the yearly average that traders consider crucial for maintaining bullish momentum.

Multiple forecasts from major financial institutions support the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 again in 2025. According to the analyst's forecast, jpmorgan predicts $145,000 with 3x Lightning Network growth, while Bloomberg Intelligence forecasts $135,000 if BTC reaches 20% of gold’s market cap. More bullish predictions come from Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, who forecasts a $250,000 peak if the U.S. Treasury allocates just 0.5% of reserves to BTC. Standard Chartered predicts $200,000 due to $100 billion in ETF inflows by Q4 2025. Bear case scenarios include BitMEX’s Arthur Hayes warning of a $70,000 floor if ETF outflows spike, and Glassnode tying a $74,000 price to long-term holder realized price. Despite these concerns, $100,000 sits comfortably within the base case predictions.

Bitcoin investors are now preparing for the record-breaking $16.5 billion monthly options expiry on March 28. The actual market impact may be limited, as BTC’s drop below $90,000 caught investors off guard and invalidated many bullish positions. Currently, the total open interest for call (buy) options stands at $10.5 billion, while put (sell) options lag at $6 billion. However, $7.6 billion of these calls are set at $92,000 or higher, meaning Bitcoin would need a 6.4% gain to make them viable by the March 28 expiry. For the options expiry, bulls hold a strategic advantage if Bitcoin remains above $86,500. In this scenario, only $2 billion worth of put options will be in play, compared to $3.3 billion in call options.

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If Bitcoin can push above $90,000, the advantage for bulls increases substantially, with $4.4 billion in call options versus $1.4 billion in put options. This could create enough momentum to establish a bullish trend for April, especially if inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs resume at a strong pace. Despite ongoing concerns about the global tariff war and US government spending cuts, Bitcoin bulls remain hopeful for a decoupling from the stock market. Their optimism stems from expansion of the monetary base by central banks and increased Bitcoin adoption by companies.

BlackRock’s head of digital assets, Robbie Mitchnick, recently suggested that Bitcoin will likely thrive in a recessionary macro environment. “I don’t know if we’ll have a recession or not, but a recession would be a big catalyst for Bitcoin,” Mitchnick said in a March 19 interview. Meanwhile, CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index is at 20, its lowest since January 2023, signaling a weak Bitcoin market with low chances of a strong rally soon. Based on historical performance, if the score remains below 40 for an extended period, it could signal continued bearish market conditions.

For traders and investors, watching the $88,000 resistance level and the outcome of the March 28 options expiry could provide important clues about Bitcoin’s next move. If Bitcoin can clear this resistance and hold above $90,000, the path toward retesting all-time highs becomes clearer.