Bitcoin Drops 29% From All-Time High, Accumulation Signals Hope

Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading below the $85,000 level, causing concerns about further declines as the bearish trend persists. Bulls have struggled to reclaim key resistance levels and maintain lower demand zones, raising fears of a continued correction. Macroeconomic uncertainty and volatility, exacerbated by erratic policy decisions, have contributed to the turbulence in both crypto and traditional markets. The ongoing global trade war narrative and tightening monetary conditions continue to weigh heavily on risk assets, hindering Bitcoin’s ability to sustain a meaningful recovery.

Despite the bearish outlook, there are signs of a potential shift in market behavior. Key metrics from Glassnode indicate that after three months of distribution, Accumulation Trend Scores suggest early signs of BTC accumulation. Historically, a transition from distribution to accumulation has often preceded a recovery phase, implying that investors might be re-entering the market at these lower levels. This accumulation phase is crucial as it will determine whether Bitcoin sees a fast recovery above key supply levels or a prolonged consolidation period before the next major move.

Bitcoin has officially entered correction territory after losing the $100,000 mark, with the bearish trend confirmed when BTC failed to hold above $90,000. Since reaching its all-time high of $109,000 in January, Bitcoin has dropped over 29%, and this trend could continue as global macroeconomic conditions remain unfavorable. Trade war tensions between the United States and key global economies continue to pressure financial markets, leading to uncertainty and risk-off sentiment. As these geopolitical issues intensify, both crypto and traditional markets remain highly volatile, struggling to find stability.

However, not all indicators are bearish. Insights reveal that the tide is turning for Bitcoin. After three months of distribution, the Accumulation Trend Scores model is hinting at early signs of BTC accumulation. Historically, these phases signal that large investors are re-entering the market, positioning themselves ahead of a potential recovery. This accumulation phase is a critical turning point that will determine whether Bitcoin sees a fast recovery above key supply levels or a long consolidation period before the next major move. The next few weeks will be decisive for BTC’s short-term outlook.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $83,000, caught in a tight consolidation as it struggles to break above $85,000 while maintaining support at $82,000. This range-bound price action has left investors uncertain, with bulls attempting to reclaim higher levels and bears pressing for further downside. If bulls want to regain control, BTC must push above $89,000, a key resistance level aligned with the 4-hour 200 moving average (MA). A successful breakout above $90,000 could confirm a recovery trend and open the door for further gains toward $95,000 and beyond.

However, if Bitcoin fails to break above $90,000 in the coming sessions, the risk of a deeper correction increases. Losing $82,000 could send BTC into a downward spiral, potentially retesting $80,000 or even lower levels. With market sentiment still fragile, the next major move will likely determine the short-term trajectory of Bitcoin’s price action. The next few weeks will be crucial, as Bitcoin’s ability to hold support and attract fresh demand will determine whether the market is preparing for a rebound or a deeper correction.