Bitcoin Drops 15% in a Month, Bear Market Looms
1min read Bitcoin's price has experienced a significant decline, dropping by 15% over the past month. This downturn has erased the gains made following the U.S. presidential election, signaling a potential end to the bull market. According to Ki Young Ju, the founder and CEO of crypto research firm CryptoQuant, investors should anticipate a period of 6 to 12 months of bearish or sideways price action. Ju attributes this bearish outlook to declining market liquidity and stalled capital inflows, which are key indicators of a waning bull cycle.
Ju's recent analysis marks a shift from his earlier stance, where he had indicated that the Bitcoin bull cycle, though slow, remained intact. He had cited neutral readings on key indicators and strong fundamentals, such as the increasing number of mining rigs coming online. However, the current market conditions suggest a different trajectory, with key valuation metrics like the MVRV Ratio Z-score showing bearish signals. This metric, which compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value, has historically lined up with deeper corrections or the start of bear markets when it drops below its 365-day moving average.
CryptoQuant analysts have highlighted the $75,000-$78,000 support level as critical. They point to weakening Bitcoin demand, evidenced by slowing whale accumulation and net selling by U.S.-based spot ETFs, which are adding downward pressure on the price. The recent outflows from BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) over three straight weeks further support the notion that institutional interest may be cooling off after the initial excitement. Ju observed that even with record volume near $100K, Bitcoin’s price barely moved, indicating a lack of new liquidity to offset heavy selling.
Despite the bearish signals, some market watchers remain optimistic. Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal believes there is no reason to panic, citing global economic indicators that point in the right direction. Crypto analyst Seth also points to the global M2 money supply reaching new highs, which could potentially trigger another Bitcoin rally. CoinRoutes CEO dave Weisberger and Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten both predict that Bitcoin could reach new all-time highs by late April or before the end of June, respectively, if historical trends and macro factors hold.
However, the overall sentiment remains divided. While some analysts predict new all-time highs by mid-2025, others warn of economic uncertainty and global tensions that could exacerbate the bearish pressure. The current market data shows Bitcoin trading at around $83,030, reflecting the ongoing volatility and uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market.
