Bitcoin Drops 14% to $80,000 on Bearish Sentiment

Bitcoin (BTC) has started the second week of March in a bearish position, with new multimonth lows looming. The cryptocurrency has experienced its worst-ever weekly candle, with a 14% dive to $80,000 by the weekly close. This significant drop has left traders and analysts cautious, with many predicting a retest of the $78,000 level. The mood among Bitcoin traders is predictably cautious, with some analysts suggesting that the current price levels represent a solid risk-return basis for investment.

Despite the bearish sentiment, some analysts remain optimistic. Kevin Svenson, a popular analyst, noted that Bitcoin is still holding the current lows of last week and has not created a new low yet. This could be seen as a positive sign for bulls, as it suggests that the cryptocurrency may be finding support at current levels. However, other analysts, such as SuperBro, are preparing for a retest of the $78,000 level, citing the recent breakdown of the uptrend from October 2023.

The upcoming week will see key US macroeconomic data releases, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI). These releases are expected to overshadow the market, as investors brace for a potential risk-off phase. The latest data from the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool puts the odds of a rate cut on March 19 at just 3%, with rate-cut odds for the Fed’s May meeting rapidly decreasing. This has led to a sense of pessimism among investors, with the Atlanta Fed reducing their Q1 2025 GDP growth estimate to as low as -2.8% last week.

When it comes to Bitcoin price bottom targets, the landscape is looking increasingly nerve-racking for bulls. With $80,000 hanging in the balance, one classic forecasting tool suggests that a reliable floor may only lie at Bitcoin’s old all-time high from 2021, around $69,000. This tool, created by network economist Timothy Peterson, has a 95% chance of being accurate. Other analysts are also eyeing new macro lows for BTC/USD, with calls for a trip to the mid-$70,000 range growing. The 200-day SMA, traditionally a bull market