Bitcoin Demand Hits 2025 Low Amid Macroeconomic Uncertainty

Bitcoin's apparent demand has reached its lowest point in 2025, according to data from CryptoQuant. This decline in demand is evident from the 30-day moving average of "apparent demand," which compares the new supply of Bitcoin to the amount that has been inactive for over a year. The notable decrease in this metric suggests a reduction in the number of active buyers and a more cautious market sentiment.

Macroeconomic uncertainty, including fears of a prolonged trade war, geopolitical tensions, and stubbornly high inflation, has led traders and investors to adopt a cautious approach to risk-on assets. This shift has caused a decline in demand for Bitcoin, which has been positive since September 2024 but began to descend in early March 2025. The apparent demand for Bitcoin dropped to a negative 142 on March 13, marking the lowest level in 2025.

The resilience of Bitcoin ETFs, which have maintained over 95% of their invested capital despite a slowdown in inflows and a significant drop in Bitcoin's price, reflects a shift in investor behavior. Unlike the short-term speculative approach of the past, investors are now adopting long-term wealth investment strategies. This is similar to the behavior observed in traditional American stock ETFs, where long-term investors do not panic during bearish periods and continue to acquire shares.

However, several indicators raise concerns about the future of the market. The data from SoSoValue shows that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded significant capital outflows, with $870 million leaving the market last week and $1.6 billion over the past month. Additionally, the Sharpe ratio of Bitcoin, which measures risk-adjusted returns, has been declining since March 2024. This trend indicates an increase in risk per unit of return, which can be attributed to macroeconomic uncertainty, rising volatility, and a slowdown in short-term returns.

Furthermore, data from Santiment reveals that large Bitcoin holders, those holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, sold over 50,000 BTC last week, amounting to about $4.07 billion. This selling pressure, combined with the decline in apparent demand, suggests that the market may face turbulence in the coming months. Despite these warning signals, investors seem to favor a long-term vision, indicating a growing preference for long-term wealth investment strategies over short-term speculation.