Bitcoin's Bull Score Hits 2-Year Low, Yet Shows Resilience Amid US Stock Market Decline

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently experiencing one of its least bullish phases since January 2023. According to the “bull score index,” investor sentiment has reached its lowest reading in two years. This index, which measures the overall bullishness of the market, has been below 40 for an extended period, indicating a higher likelihood of a bear market. The bull score remained above 40 throughout 2024, only dipping below this threshold in February 2025.

Despite the bearish sentiment, Bitcoin has shown resilience against the massive losses seen in the US stock market. On April 3, Bitcoin closed the day with a green candle, while the S&P 500 was down 4.5%, marking a historic first. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones continued their decline on April 4, dropping 3.87% and 3.44%, respectively, while Bitcoin held steady near the breakeven point.

Data from CryptoQuant indicates that Bitcoin’s Value Days Destroyed (VDD) metric currently sits around 0.72, suggesting that Bitcoin price is in a transitional phase. Since 2023, such periods have preceded either price consolidation or renewed accumulation before a bullish breakout. The VDD metric tracks the movement of long-term held coins and has signaled a notable market trend since late 2024. The metric peaked at 2.27 on Dec. 12, signaling aggressive profit-taking, but dropped to 0.65 in April, reflecting a cooling-off period where profit-taking has subsided.

This opens the possibility of a “risk-on” market for Bitcoin. In financial terms, a "risk-on" scenario occurs when investors embrace higher-risk assets like cryptocurrencies, often driven by optimism and mean reversions in trends. Amid ongoing market uncertainty, Bitcoin could unexpectedly gain from these tense conditions. Crypto trader Jackis noted, “A reminder, this is not a crypto-driven drop but an overall risk-on, tariff, trade war-driven drop. While all of that is unfolding, it seems that crypto has likely undergone most of its downside already and has been lately absorbing all of the selling well.”

Ask Aime: Why is Bitcoin's bull score in the bear market?

Similarly, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index exhibited a “fear” category with a score of 28 on April 4. The index registered an "extreme fear" score of 25 on April 3, suggesting that the current price may present a compelling buying opportunity. This index measures the overall sentiment of the market, with extreme fear often indicating a potential buying opportunity.

In conclusion, while Bitcoin sentiment has fallen to its lowest point in 2023, signaling a bearish market, this downturn could present a unique opportunity for savvy traders willing to take on risk. The current environment, characterized by a "risk on" mentality, may spark a significant rally in Bitcoin's price. This shift in sentiment could be driven by various factors, including macroeconomic conditions and investor confidence. However, investors should be cautious and carefully consider their investment strategies before entering the market, as the current environment is also characterized by uncertainty, which could lead to volatility.