Bernstein upgrades Coinbase (COIN.US) to a "Run Ahead" rating, recognizing its benefits from Trump's push for a global cryptocurrency capital.

Investment bank Bernstein initiates coverage of Coinbase Global (COIN.US) with an "Outperform" rating, as analyst Gautam Chhugani believes the cryptocurrency exchange will benefit from President Trump's desire to make the US the world's cryptocurrency capital.

Analyst Chhugani says: "Coinbase bears worry about increased competition and fee pressure, but they ignore the massive TAM (total addressable market) expansion from the global crypto market flowing back to the US."

Chhugani notes that Coinbase remains the dominant platform with about 66% of the US market share, with over $40bn in assets and about 10mn active users. He estimates that the company's EPS (fair value of cryptocurrency) will grow at a CAGR of about 38%, 30% above the consensus EPS in 2025 and 61% above the consensus EPS in 2026.

He adds that overall, the strong bull market and rising onshore US dominance are expected to offset any competitive market share and pricing pressure. In addition, the analyst expects Coinbase's non-trading revenue to grow at a CAGR of about 31% in the period of 2024-2026, providing a stabilizer for trading revenue.