Apple's Earnings: What to Expect and What's at Stake

As Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) prepares to release its fiscal 2024 fourth-quarter earnings on October 31, investors and analysts are eagerly awaiting the results. The quarter, which ended on September 28, is expected to provide insights into the company's performance following the launch of several new products, including the iPhone 16, Apple Watch Series 10, and USB-C AirPods Max. Here's what you need to know ahead of Apple's earnings.

Key Dates and Expectations

* Earnings release date: October 31, 2024
* Conference call: 2:00 PM PT (5:00 PM ET)
* Revenue estimate: $94.4 billion (consensus)
* Earnings per share (EPS) estimate: $1.55 (consensus)

What to Expect

1. iPhone Sales: The iPhone 16 launch on September 20 will have a minimal impact on Q4 2024 earnings, as the quarter runs through the end of September. However, the iPhone 16's sales will primarily contribute to the next fiscal year's results, particularly in Q1 2025. Analysts expect iPhone revenue to be flat year-over-year, with a slight decline in unit sales.
2. Services Growth: Apple's services revenue has been growing at a steady pace, with a 14% year-over-year increase in Q3 2024. Services revenue is expected to continue driving Apple's overall earnings, with double-digit growth in the June quarter. Apple's subscription-based services, such as Apple Arcade, Apple Fitness+, Apple Music, Apple News+, Apple TV+, Apple Card, and Apple Pay, are also expected to contribute to the company's earnings growth.
3. Mac and iPad Sales: The quarter was absent any Mac launches, so any impact on Q4 2024 earnings will be minimal. However, the iPad Pro update to M4 and the iPad Air with M2, launched in Q3 2024, will have enjoyed over an entire quarter of sales by the time Q4 2024 results are reported. Analysts expect iPad revenue to rise 23.7% year-over-year, while Mac revenue is expected to rise 2.5%.
4. Guidance: Apple is expected to provide guidance for the holiday quarter, which typically sees strong sales due to the holiday season. The company is guiding for low-single-digit year-over-year growth, which implies flat iPhone revenue and double-digit services growth.



What's at Stake

Apple's earnings are closely watched by investors, as they provide insights into the company's performance and growth prospects. A strong earnings report could boost Apple's stock price and reinforce investor confidence in the company's growth trajectory. Conversely, a weak earnings report could lead to a decline in Apple's stock price and raise concerns about the company's future prospects.

In conclusion, Apple's Q4 2024 earnings report is expected to provide insights into the company's performance following the launch of several new products. Investors and analysts will be closely watching the results, as they could have a significant impact on Apple's stock price and growth prospects. As always, it's essential to stay informed and make investment decisions based on a thorough understanding of the company's fundamentals and the broader market trends.