"Altcoin Season 2025: Selective Surge Ahead, Most to Fail"

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has issued a stark warning that the 2025 altcoin season will be selective rather than universal, with most altcoins failing to generate returns. In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), Ju pinpointed three critical factors determining which altcoins will thrive: potential ETF approvals, sustained user engagement, and revenue-generating business models.

Analysts are optimistic about ETF approvals for select altcoins, with high approval probabilities estimated for Litecoin (90%), Dogecoin (75%), Solana (70%), and XRP (65%). The approval of these ETFs could substantially boost their respective ecosystems, but many smaller altcoins are unlikely to experience similar gains. This optimism is reinforced by pro-crypto policies under the Trump administration, including the SEC's dismissal of cases against Coinbase, Opensea, and Robinhood.

Ki Young Ju has challenged the traditional concept of altcoin season, arguing that the historical capital flow dynamics have fundamentally changed. According to Ju, past market cycles saw capital rotating from Bitcoin into smaller altcoins, fueling broad-based rallies. However, this pattern is becoming obsolete with increasing institutional involvement and evolving regulatory frameworks. In the new cycle, capital primarily flows into widely accepted altcoins rather than speculative micro-cap tokens.

Recent market data reflects this shift, with Bitcoin's outflows of $571 million last week and altcoins such as XRP leading inflows with $38.3 million. Other major altcoins, including Solana and Ethereum, also registered positive performance. Ju also highlighted liquidity struggles in the current market, describing the environment as a "PvP fight," meaning capital is being redistributed among existing assets rather than fresh liquidity entering the market. This reinforces the notion that institutional capital is reshaping the sector, reducing the likelihood of indiscriminate altcoin booms driven by retail speculation.

While optimism is growing about ETF approvals, regulatory uncertainty remains a key factor in the market's evolution. The SEC's approach to altcoin ETF accreditation will significantly impact which projects succeed in the coming cycle. Recent filings for altcoin ETFs suggest that regulatory bodies are gradually warming up to crypto, but approval is not guaranteed for all projects. At the same time, the broader market is navigating the economic impact of financial reforms under the Trump