AbbVie's Q1 Surge: Riding the Wave of Immunology and Neuroscience Growth Amidst Challenges

AbbVie (ABBV) delivered a mixed yet compelling Q1 2025 performance, showcasing resilience in its newer drug franchises while grappling with declines in legacy products. The company raised its 2025 adjusted EPS guidance, signaling confidence in its pipeline and operational strategy. Let’s unpack the numbers and what they mean for investors.

Financial Highlights: Adjusted EPS Rises, Humira Declines Bite GAAP Results

On a GAAP basis, diluted EPS fell to $0.72 (-6.5% year-over-year), weighed down by $0.13/share in IPR&D (in-process R&D) expenses and milestones. However, adjusted diluted EPS jumped to $2.46 (+6.5%), driven by strong operational performance. Total revenue hit $13.34B, up 8.4% reported/9.8% operationally, with growth fueled by immunology and neuroscience.

Portfolio Performance: Winners and Losers

The Q1 results underscore a clear divide between AbbVie’s rising stars and struggling legacy products:

1. Immunology: The Growth Engine

• Skyrizi (up 70.5% to $3.425B): Dominates psoriasis and atopic dermatitis markets, benefiting from strong U.S. adoption and international expansion.
• Rinvoq (up 57.2% to $1.718B): Gains traction in rheumatoid arthritis and psoriatic arthritis. European Commission approval for giant cell arteritis adds to its growing addressable market.
• Humira (down 50.6% to $1.121B): U.S. generic competition continues to erode sales, but global ex-U.S. sales remain stable.

2. Neuroscience: Steady Growth

• Botox Therapeutic (up 15.8% to $866M): Maintains dominance in chronic migraine and cervical dystonia.
• Qulipta (up 47.6% to $193M): Rapid uptake in migraine prevention, supported by strong clinical data.
• Vraylar (up 10.3% to $765M): Holds steady in schizophrenia and bipolar disorder.

3. Oncology: Mixed Signals

• Elahere (new $179M): Shines post-ImmunoGen acquisition, with strong early sales in ovarian cancer.
• Venclexta (up 8.3% to $665M): Grows despite biosimilar pressures.
• Imbruvica (down 11.9% to $738M): Loses share to generics and newer BTK inhibitors.

4. Aesthetics: Suffering Slump

• Botox Cosmetic (down 12.3% to $556M): Faces competition from newer neuromodulators like Jeuveau and Xeomin.
• Juvederm (down 22.2% to $231M): Loses ground to Allergan’s newer hyaluronic acid fillers and rival brands.

Strategic Moves: Pipeline Strength and Manufacturing Investments

• Pipeline Momentum:
• TrenibotulinumtoxinE (BoNT/E): FDA submission for glabellar lines (crow’s feet) expected to compete with Botox’s shorter-duration variant.
• GUB014295 (amylin analog): Enters obesity market with Phase 1 data showing 12.3% weight loss in patients.

• Xilio Therapeutics partnership: Advances T-cell engagers for solid tumors, addressing unmet needs in oncology.

• Manufacturing Commitment:

• $10B+ over the next decade to build U.S. facilities, reducing reliance on foreign supply chains and mitigating tariff risks.

Risks and Challenges: Tariffs, Competition, and Margin Pressures

• Trade Policy Uncertainty: The revised guidance excludes potential impacts from pharmaceutical tariffs, which could cut margins if imposed.
• Humira’s Decline: The $1.1B Q1 sales mark is a fraction of its former $5B+ peak, and U.S. generic competition will persist.
• Aesthetics Turnaround: Botox and Juvederm need innovation to counter newer, cheaper competitors.

Revised 2025 Guidance: A Nod to Pipeline Confidence

AbbVie raised its 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to $12.09–$12.29 (+0.5% from prior estimates), reflecting:
- Continued strength in Skyrizi and Rinvoq.
- Sustained oncology growth from Elahere and Venclexta.
- A favorable 14.2% tax rate, excluding tariff-related headwinds.

Conclusion: A Buy with Caution

AbbVie’s Q1 results highlight a company in transition: its future hinges on immunology dominance and neuroscience stability, while legacy products like Humira and aesthetics drag on growth. The raised guidance suggests management believes its pipeline can offset these headwinds.

Key Data Points to Back the Thesis:
- Skyrizi/Rinvoq combined sales hit $5.14B in Q1, up 64% year-over-year.
- Elahere’s $179M in its first full quarter signals strong demand in ovarian cancer.
- $12.29 EPS upper target implies 2.5% growth over 2024’s $11.98, achievable if operational efficiencies and new drug launches materialize.

However, investors must weigh these positives against risks:
- Tariffs: If imposed, they could reduce EPS by ~$0.30–$0.50.
- Biosimilar competition: Imbruvica’s decline foreshadows challenges for other older drugs.

For now, AbbVie’s stock (ABBV) looks compelling at a forward P/E of ~12x 2025 estimates, if the pipeline delivers. Investors should monitor Skyrizi’s Q3医保谈判进展 in China and Elahere’s long-term efficacy data for clues on future growth. This is a hold-to-buy for those willing to bet on its innovation engine overcoming structural headwinds.

In short: AbbVie’s Q1 performance proves it’s not just surviving the Humira sunset—it’s building a new dawn. But clouds linger on the horizon.