Will TCRT's Q4 earnings surprise like last year?

**Alaunos Therapeutics Inc. (TCRT) is unlikely to experience an earnings surprise like last year's in Q4 2025.** Here's why:

1. **Last Year's Performance**: TCRT's Q4 2024 earnings report did not reveal an EPS or revenue surprise. The company's Q4 2024 EPS was not disclosed, and the revenue was primarily from royalty revenues, amounting to $10,000.

2. **Current Financial Position**: TCRT has been strategic in shifting its focus to small molecule oral obesity programs, which may impact short-term financials due to substantial costs associated with drug development. The company's financials show a net loss of $4.6 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, with an accumulated deficit of $920.4 million since inception. Revenue was minimal, primarily from royalty revenues.
3. **Market Conditions**: The biotech sector is highly volatile and sensitive to clinical trial updates and regulatory news. Any setbacks in clinical trials or delays in regulatory approvals can significantly impact financial performance and investor sentiment.
4. **Analyst Estimates**: There are no available estimates for TCRT's Q4 2025 EPS or revenue. This lack of data makes it difficult to predict potential surprises.
5. **Historical Performance**: TCRT has not consistently demonstrated the ability to exceed earnings expectations. The company's Q4 2022 earnings preview indicated an EPS estimate of -$0.07 and a revenue estimate of $0M. TCRT has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates inconsistently.
6. **Stock Performance**: TCRT's stock has experienced significant fluctuations, with a 52-week low of $1.96, which was reached amid market challenges. The stock's performance alone does not indicate an imminent earnings surprise.
7. **Strategic Changes**: The company's strategic shift towards small molecule oral obesity programs and the wind down of clinical programs suggest a potential for reduced expenses and a focus on profitability. However, these changes may impact short-term financials before long-term benefits are realized.

In conclusion, while TCRT may have potential for future growth with its strategic shifts, the lack of available data, minimal revenue, and historical performance indicate that an earnings surprise like last year's is unlikely in Q4 2025.