How did AFRM's Q3 2025 forecast compare to past surprises?

**AFRM's Q3 2025 forecast reflects a company that is continuing to grow and surpass market expectations, albeit with some cautious notes.** Here's a detailed analysis:

1. **Revenue and GMV Expectations**: AFRM is forecasting revenue for Q3 2025 in the range of $755 million to $785 million, with a midpoint of $770 million. This is slightly below the street's expectation of $772 million but still represents a robust growth trajectory. The gross merchandise volume (GMV) is expected to be in the range of $34.74 billion to $35.34 billion, which is aligned with its previous forecasts.

2. **Comparative Analysis**: In the previous quarter, AFRM's revenue exceeded expectations, with a reported revenue of $866 million for Q2 2025, a 46.6% year-over-year increase. This recent performance sets a high benchmark for Q3 2025, as maintaining such growth rates would be impressive.
3. **Market Context**: AFRM's performance is being closely watched due to its strategic partnerships and market shifts. For instance, the company's partnership with Apple is expected to have a significant impact, although AFRM clarified that it will not materially affect revenues in the near term. Additionally, the competitive landscape in the buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) sector is evolving, with AFRM facing increased competition from other BNPL providers.
4. **Analyst Expectations**: Analysts are optimistic, anticipating a 60% upside in AFRM's stock price for the year 2025. This optimism is based on AFRM's expanding merchant network and innovative financial products, which are seen as key drivers for future growth.

In conclusion, while AFRM's Q3 2025 forecast reflects a company that is growing and exceeding expectations, investors should remain mindful of the competitive pressures and market shifts that could impact the company's performance. The company's strategic partnerships and market positioning are positive indicators, but they will need to be monitored closely for long-term sustainability.