Will BA's Q1 2025 earnings beat forecasts?

**Boeing's Q1 2025 earnings are unlikely to beat forecasts.** Here's why:

1. **Analyst Estimates and Recent Performance**: The consensus estimate for BA's Q1 2025 earnings per share (EPS) is -$1.39, with a revenue estimate of $18.77 billion. This reflects a bearish outlook, as evidenced by Zacks Research's recent report, which dropped its Q1 2025 earnings estimates from $0.67 to -$2.95 per share. This significant downward revision suggests that analysts are expecting a substantial shortfall from the company's expected performance.

2. **Financial Challenges and Previous Performance**: Boeing has been struggling with significant quarterly losses, particularly in its commercial and defense arms. The company's Q4 2024 earnings report is expected to show a year-over-year decline in earnings on lower revenues. This trend of declining earnings and revenue suggests that BA is facing ongoing financial challenges, which are unlikely to resolve quickly.
3. **Production Updates and Operational Improvements**: Despite these challenges, there have been some positive developments, such as increased production rates for the 737 and stable numbers for the 787. However, these improvements may not be enough to significantly boost earnings in the immediate term. Moreover, the company's stock rise due to these positive updates might not necessarily translate to improved earnings in the upcoming quarter.
4. **Market Conditions and Future Outlook**: The aerospace industry is sensitive to market conditions and global economic health. Any disruptions or uncertainties in this area could further impact Boeing's earnings. Additionally, the company's long-term turnaround plans, while promising, are unlikely to have a immediate impact on Q1 2025 earnings.

In conclusion, given the bearish analyst estimates, ongoing financial challenges, and the pace of operational improvements, it is more likely that Boeing's Q1 2025 earnings will fall short of expectations rather than exceed them.