Are there any new Copper mines opening in the next 2 years
6/29/2024 05:49am
The copper mining industry has seen a significant rebound in earnings, boosted by higher copper prices since 2021. However, the development of new mines has been slower due to a number of factors:
1. **Development Capital**: Global development and expansion capital for primary copper mines peaked at $26.13 billion in 2013 and has not recovered since. Capital spend on copper projects is estimated to have been only $14.42 billion in 2022, based on Mine Economics' universe of coverage.
2. **Project Pipeline**: The number of new copper projects at various stages of development is limited. The Pebble project in Alaska and the Resolution project in Arizona are among the largest undeveloped copper projects, but they are not expected to begin production until 2023.
3. **Operational and Geotechnical Issues**: Copper mine production is expected to increase by 3 percent in 2023, down from the group's 5 percent growth projection this past October. This decrease is attributed to operational and geotechnical issues, equipment failure, adverse weather, landslides, revised company guidance, and community actions in Peru.
4. **Investor Sentiment**: The copper projects that were the highest-capex in 2022 were the Quebrada Blanca Phase 2 and Grasberg. However, the copper miners have become conservative about investing in new projects, focusing instead on extending the mine life of operating high-grade, profitable projects.
5. **Time to Development**: It takes an average of 23 years to go from discovery to production for copper projects. This long timeline makes it difficult to rapidly increase supply to meet growing demand.
6. **Environmental and Social Factors**: The copper industry is also facing increasing scrutiny over environmental and social issues, which can impact investment