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The AI adoption curve is shifting from model development to a massive scaling of infrastructure. The world's leading tech giants are on track to spend upward of <a href="https://www.campaignlive.com/article/big-techs-ai-spend-2026-following-money/1947981">US$650 billion on AI investments in 2026</a>. This isn't speculative spending; it's a foundational bet to secure dominance in the next computing paradigm. The surge is primarily directed toward the massive infrastructure required to power generative AI, including advanced data centers, specialized chips, and liquid-cooling systems. This scale of investment is creating a clear hierarchy of demand, with hyperscalers prioritizing their needs over consumer electronics.The immediate bottleneck has moved from raw compute power to integrated systems. The rapid expansion of AI infrastructure is triggering a <a href="https://restofworld.org/2026/ai-memory-chip-explainer/">global memory chip shortage</a>, as factories prioritize chips for data centers over laptops and smartphones. This shortage is a direct result of the AI industry's reliance on an ultrafast memory architecture called high-bandwidth memory (HBM). The demand is so intense that <a href="https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/02/11/better-ai-stock-to-buy-on-the-dip-micron-or-micros/">Micron revealed in its fiscal 2026 first-quarter update that its entire 2026 HBM supply had sold out</a>. This supply constraint highlights a critical shift: the system-level integration of chips, cooling, and software is now the rate-limiting factor, not just the availability of individual components.<img src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/aigc/hxcmp/images/compress-qwen_generated_1771073638382.jpg.png" style="max-width:100%;"/><visualization data='{"components":[{"show_type":"jgyNewLowcode","config":{"type":"iwcapp/stockBackTestTool","version":"0.0.3","url":"//cdn.ainvest.com/frontResources/s/foiegras/stockBackTestTool/0.0.3/stockBackTestTool@0.0.3index.js"},"data":{"columns":[{"index_name":"strategy_basic_info","key":"strategy_basic_info","type":"Object"},{"index_name":"backtest_condition","key":"backtest_condition","type":"Object"},{"index_name":"backtest_result","key":"backtest_result","type":"STR"}],"datas":[{"strategy_basic_info":{"name":"Absolute Momentum Long-only Strategy","description":"Go long MU when 252-day ROC &gt; 0 and price closes above 200-day SMA. Exit when price closes below 200-day SMA, after 20 trading days, or if TP +8% or SL -4% is triggered."},"backtest_condition":{"object":{"display_name":"Object","type":"ticker","ticker":["MU"]},"open_signal":{"display_name":"Open Signal","type":"criteria","criteria":"252-day ROC &gt; 0 AND close &gt; 200-day SMA"},"sell_signal":{"display_name":"Close Signal","type":"criteria","criteria":"close &lt; 200-day SMA OR max hold 20 days OR TP +8% OR SL -4%"},"risk_control":{"display_name":"Risk Control","parameters":{"take_profit":{"display_name":"Take-Profit","value":8,"unit":"%"},"stop_loss":{"display_name":"Stop-Loss","value":4,"unit":"%"},"max_holding_days":{"display_name":"Hold Days","value":20}}}},"backtest_result":"https://cdn.ainvest.com/backtest/agent/session/784562/1800109709/65f7a0ef-1d4e-43e4-b83a-8365785b0d45/MU_abs_mom_backtest_result_20240214_20260213.json"}]},"uuid":"1771073714968"}],"page":{"layout":{"layout_mode":"grid","layout_data":"[{\"uuid\": \"1771073714968\", \"show_type\": \"jgyNewLowcode\"}]"}}}'></visualization>This phase favors foundational compute suppliers like Micron, which are positioned as essential rails for the AI S-curve. The company projects the total addressable market for HBM will grow at a compound annual rate of around 40% over the next three years. Yet, Alphabet's full-stack strategy offers a more durable, exponential growth profile by integrating infrastructure with application. While Micron provides the critical memory layer, Alphabet is building the entire stack-from its custom TPU chips and Google Cloud infrastructure to its Gemini AI models and Vertex AI platform. This vertical integration allows Alphabet to capture value at multiple points along the stack, creating a more resilient and scalable business model as the AI paradigm matures. The infrastructure layer is essential, but the company that owns the application layer riding on top of it may have the longer exponential run.<h2>Micron: Riding the Cyclical DRAM/HBM Wave</h2>Micron's recent performance is a textbook case of riding a powerful, but temporary, supply-demand wave. The company's shares have <a href="https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/prediction-artificial-intelligence-ai-stock-will-be-worth-more-micron-end-next-year">zoomed higher</a>, with one report noting a <a href="https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/02/14/forget-micron-technology-buy-ai-stock-sandisk/">222% gain over the last six months</a>. This surge has been fueled by an unprecedented crunch in the foundational memory chips for AI. Micron revealed in its fiscal first-quarter update that its <a href="https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/02/11/better-ai-stock-to-buy-on-the-dip-micron-or-micros/">entire 2026 HBM supply had sold out</a>.<backtest-component code="MU" id="strategy_001" range="3" market="169"></backtest-component> The demand is so intense that the company's gross margin climbed to 57% in that quarter, up sharply from a year earlier. This is the classic profit explosion of a pure-play supplier in a tight market.The growth rate, however, is a key indicator of the cycle's stage. A 222% six-month run is not sustainable beyond the current memory shortage. The company's own projection of a 40% compound annual growth rate for the HBM market through 2028 is exponential, but that trajectory assumes the industry's manufacturing build-out keeps pace. Micron's ability to maintain its pricing power and margin expansion is heavily dependent on that timeline. As one analyst notes, "Micron's ability to maintain its pricing power is heavily dependent on the entire industry's manufacturing build-out."This is where the inherent cyclical risk becomes the central investment question. The memory industry has a history of sharp downturns when supply eventually catches up to demand. Micron's valuation, trading at only 12 times forward earnings, reflects this near-term hype but also the long-standing investor skepticism about its cyclical nature. The stock's recent 15% pullback from its high is a reminder that momentum can screech to a halt. The current setup is a powerful cyclical upswing, but it is not a paradigm shift. Micron is providing essential rails for the AI S-curve, but its business model remains exposed to the industry's boom-and-bust cycles, which are not yet out of the system.<h2>Alphabet: The Full-Stack AI Infrastructure Play</h2>Alphabet's strategy is a masterclass in building the foundational rails for the AI paradigm. Unlike a pure-play supplier, it controls the entire stack-from custom <a href="https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/02/13/if-i-could-only-buy-and-hold-a-single-stock-this-w/">tensor processing units (TPUs)</a> and its own data centers to its frontier models and consumer products. This vertical integration is not just a technical advantage; it's a powerful economic engine. The company has already reduced serving costs for its Gemini family of models by 78% in 2025. This dramatic efficiency gain is the direct result of optimizing hardware, software, and data flows in a closed loop. It creates a formidable cost barrier for competitors and a stickier client base, as enterprises that adopt Google Cloud's AI services use 1.8 times as many products.The most visible engine of this strategy is Google Cloud. It has become a prominent growth catalyst, with revenues up 48% year over year to $17.7 billion last quarter. More importantly, its profitability is accelerating, with an operating margin expanding 12.6 percentage points year over year to 30.1%. This isn't just top-line growth; it's the kind of margin expansion that signals a business maturing from a growth engine into a cash-generating powerhouse. The company's $240 billion backlog, up 55% sequentially, provides a clear view into future revenue and underscores strong enterprise commitment.All of this is backed by an extraordinary financial war chest. Alphabet generated $164.7 billion in operating cash flow in fiscal 2025. That massive, recurring cash flow is the fuel that allows the company to fund its aggressive AI investments without straining its balance sheet. It provides the patience and capital to ride out any potential AI cycle downturns, while simultaneously building out its infrastructure and expanding its ecosystem.Viewed on the S-curve, Alphabet is not just riding the AI wave-it is engineering the wave itself. Its full-stack control drives exponential cost reductions, while its integrated platform captures value across search, cloud, and consumer services. The result is a business with multiple durable growth engines, a fortress balance sheet, and the financial firepower to own the next computing paradigm. For an investor betting on the infrastructure layer, Alphabet represents the most complete and resilient play.<h2>Catalysts, Risks, and What to Watch</h2>The infrastructure layer thesis for both Micron and Alphabet hinges on a few critical forward signals. The most immediate risk is the potential for AI spending to plateau. The Big Four are on track to spend <a href="https://www.campaignlive.com/article/big-techs-ai-spend-2026-following-money/1947981">upward of US$650 billion on AI investments in 2026</a>. While that's a massive, committed sum, it's not infinite. A slowdown in this capex race would be a direct hit to the demand for foundational chips and cloud capacity. Here, Alphabet's diversified business model provides a crucial buffer. Its core search and advertising engines generate massive, stable cash flows that can fund AI bets even if hyperscaler spending cools. Micron, as a pure-play memory supplier, lacks that cushion. Its fortunes are now entirely tied to the AI infrastructure cycle.The resolution of the global memory shortage is the next major catalyst. The industry is in the midst of a historic crunch, with <a href="https://restofworld.org/2026/ai-memory-chip-explainer/">DRAM and NAND flash prices expected to rise by 90%–95% and 55%–60%, respectively</a> in the first quarter. This shortage is a direct result of factories prioritizing AI chips over consumer electronics. The critical question is when supply catches up. A swift resolution would likely lead to a glut, pressuring prices and margins. For Micron, this would hit its cyclical earnings more acutely than Alphabet's diversified revenue streams. Alphabet's full-stack control means it can absorb some cost volatility and still capture value from its cloud and application layers.For Sandisk, a key player in the NAND flash market, the path to sustained growth involves executing on multi-year supply frameworks and new technology. The company's recent results show a shift toward higher-value edge and consumer configurations, supporting margin expansion. Its success depends on securing <a href="https://futurumgroup.com/insights/sandisk-q2-fy-2026-revenue-beats-on-ai-storage-demand/">multi-year commercial frameworks</a> with hyperscalers, which provide pricing visibility and reduce historical cyclicality. Equally critical is the ramp of its BiCS8 technology, which underpins its supply roadmap and data center dominance. Execution here will determine if Sandisk can transition from a cyclical supplier to a more disciplined, margin-accretive partner in the AI infrastructure build-out.The bottom line is that the infrastructure layer is essential, but its profitability is a function of timing and execution. Investors must watch for signs that the AI spending wave is peaking and that memory supply is stabilizing. For companies like Micron, these are binary risks. For Alphabet, they are manageable headwinds against a broader, more resilient growth engine.

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Artificial Intelligence

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Semiconductor

Micron Technology

Micron vs. Alphabet: The Infrastructure Layer Bet in the AI S-Curve

Bitcoin has fallen <a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/cryptocurrency/bitcoin-drop-no-crypto-winter-jefferies-etf-outflows/cZb69QzR4q0">about 47% from its early October high</a>, moving closely with tech stocks as its correlation with the Nasdaq remains elevated. This sharp selloff has rattled investors, but Wall Street analysts argue it's a correction, not a structural downturn. The key data point challenging a "crypto winter" narrative is the resilience of spot Bitcoin ETF holdings. Despite heavy daily outflows, <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-etf-holders-diamond-hands-160516190.html">overall drop in BTC held by these ETFs is just 6.6% since October 2025</a>, indicating institutional "diamond hands" holding through the pain.A single day saw nearly <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/01/30/u-s-listed-bitcoin-ether-etfs-bleed-nearly-usd1-billion-in-one-day">$1 billion in outflows</a> from U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, a synchronized selling that prompted analysts to label it a leverage shakeout. This massive redemption event coincided with Bitcoin dropping below $85,000 and Ether falling more than 7%. The outflows reflect institutions cutting overall crypto exposure amid rising volatility and hawkish Federal Reserve expectations, not a wholesale capitulation.<img src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/aigc/hxcmp/images/compress-qwen_generated_1771072754870.jpg.png" style="max-width:100%;"/>The disconnect between daily flows and total holdings is telling. With the average cost basis of spot Bitcoin ETF holders sitting at $84,099, the current price under $70,000 means these vehicles are deep underwater. Yet the minimal 6.6% decline in total BTC balances shows limited selling pressure from these vehicles. This suggests the recent volatility is a forced unwinding of leveraged positions, not a fundamental retreat by long-term holders.<h2>The Winter Definition: What's Missing</h2>A true crypto winter is defined by stalled development and waning institutional interest, not just price drops. Analysts argue the current market lacks these structural indicators. As Jefferies' Andrew Moss notes, a real winter involves <a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/cryptocurrency/bitcoin-drop-no-crypto-winter-jefferies-etf-outflows/cZb69QzR4q0">questions emerging about the longevity of this industry</a>, a scenario not reflected in ongoing TradFi initiatives and blockchain integration.<backtest-component code="BTCUSDT" id="strategy_001" range="3" market="UBAX"></backtest-component>Major U.S. banks continue building on the technology, and network usage remains intact, showing infrastructure vitality. This counters the narrative of sector decay. The recent selloff is being driven by <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jefferies-sees-few-signs-crypto-073059680.html">broader risk-off sentiment in global markets</a> and a rotation away from growth assets, not a collapse in blockchain fundamentals or corporate adoption.Market sentiment does show extreme fear, but that is a lagging indicator of price action, not a driver of sector viability. The fear is concentrated in retail chatter, while the price moves are dictated by leveraged liquidations and institutional portfolio rebalancing. The disconnect between emotional sentiment and underlying activity is the key to understanding this phase.<h2>Catalysts and What to Watch</h2>The immediate catalyst is whether ETF outflows accelerate or stabilize. The recent <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/01/30/u-s-listed-bitcoin-ether-etfs-bleed-nearly-usd1-billion-in-one-day">nearly $1 billion in single-session outflows</a> from spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs shows institutions are cutting exposure, but the minimal <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-etf-holders-diamond-hands-160516190.html">6.6% overall drop in BTC held by these ETFs since October</a> suggests a floor is forming. Watch for a sustained break in this pattern. If daily redemptions slow while price holds, it signals the worst of the forced selling is over. If they resume at a similar pace, it confirms ongoing institutional portfolio rebalancing pressure.<visualization data='{"components":[{"show_type":"jgyStandardChartSdk","config":{"parameter":{"xAttribute":"date","yAttribute":"price"},"name":"line","showDataZoom":true},"title_config":{"config":{"display":true},"data":{"h1":"Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Daily Price Trend – Last 12 Months"}},"data":{"type":"remote-url","url":"https://cdn.ainvest.com/backtest/agent/session/quant/a165889f-2d14-4032-bf7b-7aea698084b7/7ef3c755-4c02-4f62-8cba-ce1cbf64b5f5/btc_trend_20260214123930_a3655fed.json"},"uuid":1771072783913.4727}],"page":{"layout":{"layout_mode":"grid","layout_data":"[{"uuid": 1771072783913.4727, "show_type": "jgyStandardChartSdk"}]"}}}'></visualization>Support levels are critical for preventing a deeper cascade. Bitcoin is hovering near <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jefferies-sees-few-signs-crypto-073059680.html">$64,800</a>, a level that has historically drawn dip buyers. A decisive break below this could trigger further leveraged liquidations, amplifying downside volatility. The stabilization of centralized exchange trading volumes and decentralized lending activity is a positive sign, but the market remains vulnerable to a liquidity spiral if key technical supports fail.Longer-term, the rebound path hinges on catalysts that improve macro conditions. Jefferies points to regulatory progress, infrastructure maturity, and greater participation by traditional finance as potential drivers. These are structural tailwinds, but they require a broader risk-on environment to gain traction. For now, the setup is binary: the market is testing institutional resolve against technical support, with the outcome likely determined by the flow of capital from the ETFs.

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Bitcoin's 47% Drop: Is This a Correction or the Start of a Winter?

<think></think>Nvidia is delaying the release of its next-generation gaming graphics cards due to a shortage of advanced memory chips driven by AI demand. The shortage is forcing suppliers to shift resources toward AI hardware, <a href="https://coinfomania.com/nvidia-pauses-gaming-gpu-rollout-due-to-chip-shortage/">allowing Nvidia to prioritize higher-margin data center products</a>. The company has reportedly cut production of current RTX 50-series cards, <a href="https://evrimagaci.org/gpt/nvidia-faces-gpu-delays-as-ai-boom-drives-record-profits-527884?srsltid=AfmBOoozoPG8gHSfXs8zCPqrIS8cRzKa3MpBkA53OoZ6KuLDovAftRaE">worsening supply constraints for gaming GPUs</a>.The shortage centers on memory chips like GDDR7 and HBM4, which are essential for both high-end gaming and AI server components. With AI infrastructure growing rapidly, <a href="https://coinfomania.com/nvidia-pauses-gaming-gpu-rollout-due-to-chip-shortage/">suppliers are allocating more capacity to AI-focused chips</a>, reducing availability for consumer graphics cards. This shift aligns with Nvidia's strategic focus on data center revenue, <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/article/4869346-nvidia-the-risk-reward-is-skewed-into-q4-rating-upgrade">which now accounts for nearly 90% of its total income</a>.<img src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/aigc/hxcmp/images/compress-qwen_generated_1771074126784.jpg.png" style="max-width:100%;"/>Analysts suggest that the memory shortage and AI demand could push back the release of the next RTX 60-series GPUs beyond 2027. Reports also claim that <a href="https://coinfomania.com/nvidia-pauses-gaming-gpu-rollout-due-to-chip-shortage/">planned RTX 50-series 'Super' refresh models may be canceled</a> to free up manufacturing capacity for AI chips.<h2>Why Did This Happen?</h2>The global memory shortage is a result of surging demand for AI infrastructure, particularly from hyperscale data centers. This has caused suppliers to prioritize AI over gaming hardware, <a href="https://coinfomania.com/nvidia-pauses-gaming-gpu-rollout-due-to-chip-shortage/">which traditionally has lower profit margins</a>. Nvidia has not officially confirmed these delays, but <a href="https://coinfomania.com/nvidia-pauses-gaming-gpu-rollout-due-to-chip-shortage/">its recent earnings show a clear shift in revenue</a> toward the data center segment.The shortage is also impacting the broader market, with analysts suggesting that <a href="https://coinfomania.com/nvidia-pauses-gaming-gpu-rollout-due-to-chip-shortage/">prices for existing Nvidia graphics cards could rise</a> as supply tightens. This creates opportunities for competitors like AMD and Intel, who may benefit from market share gains in the gaming GPU segment.<h2>How Did Markets React?</h2>Despite strong AI demand and record revenue, Nvidia's stock has shown little movement in recent months. Big tech companies are planning AI capital spending <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-cant-break-wall-street-173956844.html">estimated at over $600 billion in 2026</a>, but investors are concerned that capital expenditures may outpace revenue. This has contributed to a lower valuation for Nvidia, <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-cant-break-wall-street-173956844.html">which now trades at about 24 times profit estimates</a>, down from a five-year average near 38.<a href="https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/goldman-sachs-revamps-nvidia-stock-forecast-ahead-of-earnings">Goldman Sachs has raised its price target for Nvidia</a> to $250, citing optimism about the company's next-generation Rubin GPU and increased capital expenditures from major data centers. The firm <a href="https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/goldman-sachs-revamps-nvidia-stock-forecast-ahead-of-earnings">forecasts a $2 billion revenue beat in Q4</a> and earnings per share above the consensus estimate for Q1.<visualization dataurl="https://cdn.ainvest.com/news/visual/visual_components/viz_d967z9on.json"></visualization><h2>What Are Analysts Watching Next?</h2>Analysts are closely monitoring Nvidia's upcoming earnings report on Feb. 25 to <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-cant-break-wall-street-173956844.html">assess demand and guidance for the year ahead</a>. The next-generation Rubin GPU is expected to begin shipping in Q3 2026, and <a href="https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/goldman-sachs-revamps-nvidia-stock-forecast-ahead-of-earnings">analysts believe this could drive further revenue growth</a>.In the AI hardware space, AMD is facing challenges in maintaining its competitive edge. While AMD's Instinct MI300X and upcoming MI350X GPUs offer strong specs, <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20260213224/amd-is-falling-behind-warns-this-analyst-who-says-other-chip-stocks-are-better-bets">analysts like Gil Luria of D.A. Davidson warn</a> that the company lags in real-world performance and deployment tools. This hinders AMD's ability to compete with Nvidia and Broadcom in the high-performance computing market.Nvidia is also expanding its data center operations by leasing a new facility backed by $3.8 billion in junk bonds. <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/news/tradingview:03487d0a51387:0-key-facts-nvidia-to-lease-data-center-ceo-cites-sustainable-spending-stock-dips/">CEO Jensen Huang has expressed confidence</a> that $660 billion in capital expenditure from key clients is sustainable, helping to support investor sentiment amid recent stock volatility.<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/article/4869346-nvidia-the-risk-reward-is-skewed-into-q4-rating-upgrade">Goldman Sachs believes the broader AI infrastructure spending</a> by cloud providers and digital platforms will remain robust, with estimated investments of $600–$650 billion in 2026. Continued strong capital expenditure by hyperscalers <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/article/4869346-nvidia-the-risk-reward-is-skewed-into-q4-rating-upgrade">reinforces the thesis that supply constraints are still a factor</a>, supporting long-term demand for Nvidia's products.

US Tech

Nvidia

Nvidia Delays Gaming GPU Launch as AI Demand Drives Chip Shortage

<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/X-Ew57Gh19I" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPBitcoin60K_6d38aa7c1770991345562.jpg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/X-Ew57Gh19I&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPBitcoin60K_6d38aa7c1770991345562.jpg&quot;}"></video>The highly anticipated <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t01.htm" target='__blank'>January CPI report</a> delivered a modest upside surprise on headline inflation and largely met expectations on core, helping steady markets after weeks of volatility. Headline CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month, below the 0.3% consensus estimate, while year-over-year inflation cooled to 2.4%, also below expectations of 2.5% and down from 2.7% in December. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% month-over-month in line with estimates, with the year-over-year rate holding at 2.5%, exactly matching consensus.The cooler-than-expected headline reading initially provided a lift to equity futures, though the overall market response has been muted. After slipping in pre-market trading, futures stabilized as investors digested the details. The 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 4.07% before settling near that level, reflecting a modest easing in rate pressures rather than a wholesale repricing. The <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html" target='__blank'>CME FedWatch</a> tool now shows an 82% probability of a June rate cut, followed by a 79% probability of a September cut. While some headlines have suggested traders are pricing in a 50% chance of a third rate cut this year, Fed funds futures do not reflect a 50% probability until the January 2027 meeting, indicating that expectations remain for a gradual, not aggressive, easing cycle.A closer look at the report reveals that the headline miss was largely driven by energy. The energy index declined 1.5% in January, with gasoline down 3.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis and down 7.5% year-over-year. This deflationary impulse continues to act as a counterweight to broader price pressures. Electricity prices fell 0.1% month-over-month but remain up 6.3% year-over-year, while natural gas rose 1.0% in January and is up nearly 10% over the past year. In short, commodity energy is soft, but energy services remain elevated.Food prices rose 0.2% month-over-month, matching expectations. Food at home increased 0.2%, while food away from home rose 0.1%. On a year-over-year basis, food inflation stands at 2.9%, with food away from home still running hot at 4.0%. Grocery categories showed mixed movement, with cereals and bakery products up 1.2% for the month and dairy rising 0.8%, while other food at home declined 0.3%. There is little evidence here of tariff-driven price acceleration in core grocery categories, though certain processed food components remain firm.Core inflation, the Federal Reserve’s primary focus, rose 0.3% month-over-month. Shelter increased 0.2%, with both rent and owners’ equivalent rent up 0.2% for the month. On a year-over-year basis, shelter is running at 3.0%, with OER at 3.3%. The steady deceleration in shelter from pandemic-era peaks continues, though it remains the single largest contributor to monthly core inflation.Outside of shelter, the picture was mixed. Airline fares jumped 6.5% month-over-month, contributing to volatility in transportation services, which rose 1.3%. Medical care services increased 0.3% for the month, with hospital services up 0.9%, underscoring ongoing stickiness in healthcare costs. Personal care and recreation also saw gains, while communication prices rose 0.5%. These services categories collectively keep services-less-energy inflation elevated, which rose 0.5% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year.On the goods side, there was little sign of tariff-driven inflation reaccelerating. Core commodities rose 0.3% month-over-month and are up just 1.1% year-over-year. Used cars and trucks declined 1.8% in January and are down 2.0% year-over-year, while new vehicles rose only 0.1% for the month and 0.4% annually. Apparel increased 0.3% month-over-month and 1.7% year-over-year. If tariffs were exerting broad pressure on goods prices, it is not yet evident in this report. Goods inflation remains relatively contained and far from the spikes seen in prior cycles.Real earnings for all private workers rose 0.5% in January after declines in December, suggesting that wage growth continues to outpace inflation at the margin. This dynamic supports consumer purchasing power and may help explain why markets are not reacting more aggressively to a modest cooling in headline inflation.In aggregate, the report supports a narrative of gradual disinflation rather than renewed price acceleration. Headline inflation is cooling, core remains stable but not deteriorating, shelter is trending lower, and goods inflation is subdued. The primary area of stickiness remains services, particularly medical and certain transportation components, though not at levels that would alarm policymakers.For markets, the key takeaway is that this report keeps the June rate cut firmly in play without dramatically pulling forward expectations. The modest decline in the 10-year yield and the stabilization in equities reflect that this was a “good enough” report rather than a game-changing one. With inflation drifting lower but not collapsing, the Federal Reserve retains flexibility. Investors now turn their attention to whether upcoming data confirm this steady glide path—or challenge it.

Futures

Bond

Inflation Cools More Than Expected — But Is the Fed’s June Rate Cut Now a Lock?

<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/X-Ew57Gh19I" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPBitcoin60K_c2ab5e471770989089020.jpg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/X-Ew57Gh19I&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPBitcoin60K_c2ab5e471770989089020.jpg&quot;}"></video>Coinbase delivered a volatile <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/02/12/coinbase-misses-q4-estimates-as-transaction-revenue-falls-below-usd1-billion" target='__blank'>fourth quarter</a> that underscored just how tightly its near-term performance remains tethered to crypto prices. The company reported Q4 revenue of $1.78 billion, below the $1.83 billion consensus estimate, while adjusted EPS of $0.66 missed expectations of $0.86. On a GAAP basis, Coinbase swung to a net loss of $667 million, or -$2.49 per share, a sharp reversal from profitability a year ago. Shares initially fell to $134, marking a two-year low, before rebounding roughly 11% to around $148, suggesting some degree of near-term seller exhaustion following a steep year-to-date decline of roughly 40%.From a top-line perspective, the primary weakness came from transaction revenue, which totaled $983 million, down 6% sequentially from $1.046 billion in Q3 and down sharply from $1.556 billion in the year-ago quarter. Transaction revenue also fell short of Street expectations near $1.02 billion. The decline reflects the reality of the crypto backdrop: Bitcoin fell about 23% in Q4 and is down roughly 25% year-to-date, dragging down retail participation and overall trading volumes. Coinbase noted that through February 10, it has generated about $420 million in transaction revenue in Q1, suggesting continued near-term pressure.Subscription and services revenue, the company’s key diversification lever, came in at $727 million, down 3% sequentially but up from $641 million a year ago. This segment includes stablecoin revenue, staking, custody, and other recurring services. Management guided to Q1 subscription and services revenue in a range of $550 million to $630 million, reflecting lower crypto prices, lower interest rates, and reduced staking rewards. While this segment has grown meaningfully over the past several years, the sequential decline highlights that it is not immune to crypto volatility.Profitability metrics were mixed. Adjusted EBITDA of $566 million exceeded some analyst estimates but fell below the consensus of roughly $657 million. Operating expenses totaled about $1.5 billion, up 9% quarter-over-quarter, driven in part by acquisitions such as Deribit and Echo, as well as higher USDC rewards. On an adjusted basis, net income was $178 million, but GAAP results were heavily distorted by non-cash charges, including a $718 million unrealized loss on Coinbase’s crypto investment portfolio and a $395 million loss on strategic investments, including its stake in Circle. Excluding these marks, underlying profitability was less severe, though still below expectations.The crypto environment was the central driver of results. Management acknowledged that crypto market cap declined 11% sequentially in Q4, and trading activity cooled accordingly. CEO Brian Armstrong reiterated that “crypto is cyclical, and experience tells us it’s never as good or as bad as it seems,” framing the quarter as a function of macro and asset price volatility rather than structural deterioration. CFO Alesia Haas added that even amid volatility, “those who are in the market, they’re buying the dip,” signaling some stabilization in active user engagement.Strategically, Coinbase continues to push its “Everything Exchange” vision. Armstrong highlighted that global trading volume and market share doubled year-over-year and that Coinbase now stores 12% of all crypto globally, more than the next four competitors combined. The company launched the Everything Exchange in Q4 and is expanding into equities, commodities, and prediction markets. Management also emphasized Base, Coinbase’s Layer 2 network, which reached new transaction highs, and ongoing efforts to scale stablecoin use cases, particularly USDC, in commerce and payments.Analyst reaction was mixed but not uniformly negative. Canaccord maintained a Buy rating, though it lowered its price target to $300 from $400, citing near-term estimate cuts but confidence in Coinbase’s breadth, depth, and medium-term positioning. The firm sees Deribit as a strategic asset and believes Coinbase is positioned to gain share internationally. Deutsche Bank also kept a Buy rating, trimming its price target to $250 from $331 and describing results as largely in line with its own expectations, while reiterating support for the Everything Exchange vision.In contrast, Piper Sandler maintained a Neutral rating and slashed its price target to $150 from $270, citing lower Q1 guidance and downward revisions to 2026 and 2027 EPS estimates. Piper highlighted that while adjusted EBITDA beat its internal forecast, transaction and subscription revenue trends, combined with token price weakness and multiple compression across the sector, warrant a more cautious stance.On capital allocation, Coinbase ended the year with $11.3 billion in cash and total available resources of $14.1 billion. The company repurchased $1.7 billion of stock in 2025, fully offsetting dilution from stock-based compensation, and the board authorized an additional $2 billion in buybacks. Management also reiterated its commitment to continuing Bitcoin purchases and investing in product development.The stock’s sharp bounce off $134 to around $148 may reflect a combination of technical oversold conditions and investor willingness to look through near-term crypto weakness. However, the revenue miss and Q1 guide suggest that fundamentals will remain closely tied to asset prices and trading volumes. The key debate for investors remains whether diversification through subscription revenue, derivatives, Base, and prediction markets can meaningfully reduce cyclicality—or whether Coinbase will continue to trade as a high-beta proxy on Bitcoin and broader crypto sentiment.

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