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<h3 style="text-align: start">I&#39;m using prediction markets to put money on Kristi Noem&#39;s fate, the job market, and Trump&#39;s state of the union speech.</h3>I <a href="https://www.thepinpointpress.com/p/kristi-noem-dhs-ai-software-stocks-debt-crisis-2026" target='__blank'>recently wrote about Kristi Noem</a>, the embattled secretary of the Homeland Security Dept., and mentioned that betting markets put the odds of her departure by July at 35%. I thought those odds were too low, and I said so in the story.Then it dawned on me: Why stop there? Millions of people bet on the direction of news developments on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, and I’m a news geek. So why don’t I open an account and start trading?I chose Kalshi because it’s the largest prediction market open to Americans. It took only a few minutes to create an account and transfer a few bucks from my bank. The ease with which we can gamble away our money is one of the true miracles of the digital age.I’m not doing this because I think I can make money at it. I believe in math and have no reason to think I can beat the odds. Nor do I think I have any special knowledge as a journalist that would give me an edge in predicting the news. I analyze and report on news events, but I don’t influence whether they happen or not.More from Rick Newman <a href="https://www.thepinpointpress.com/" target='__blank'>The Pinpoint Press</a><ul><li style="text-align: start"><a href="https://www.thepinpointpress.com/p/hows-the-trump-economy-doing" target='__blank'>How&#39;s the Trump economy doing?</a> </li><li style="text-align: start"><a href="https://www.thepinpointpress.com/p/markets-2026-02-sell-america-trade-global-stock-outperformance" target='__blank'>The “sell America” trade is looking pretty good</a> </li><li style="text-align: start"><a href="https://www.thepinpointpress.com/p/politics-trump-administration-failures-february-2026" target='__blank'>Scenes from a broken government</a> </li></ul>The reason I want to gamble on the news is to learn how it works as a participant, not just an observer. Prediction markets are a booming business that grew out of sports betting, which the Supreme Court broadly allowed in a 2018 ruling. Kalshi won a big legal case of its own in 2024 that allowed election betting. Just as you can place proposition or “prop” bets on random developments within a sporting event, you can now gamble on all manner of arcana in politics, economics, tech, entertainment and many other fields.<img data-json="{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/image_6d0514c31771526394592.jpg&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}]}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/image_6d0514c31771526394592.jpg" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" />Place your bets. These are the odds of Kristi Noem leaving her job as Secretary of Homeland Security, on the prediction site Kalshi.I plan to limit all my bets to $10, so there’s never anything more than beer money at stake in any individual trade. I also want to bet on near-term things rather than far-off events such as the 2028 presidential election, because this is not like buy-and-hold investing. I’ll post all of my trades, plus the outcomes, here at The Pinpoint Press, so everybody can cheer or cry right along with me. 😄Since I had already taken a stance on Kristi Noem, I wanted that to be my first bet. I found at least three trades: That she will be out of her current job by March 1, May 1, or July 1. I feel like March 1 is too soon, but that Trump might ease her out once the current funding impasse for DHS gets resolved and something else becomes the controversy du jour. So I bet $10 Noem will be out by May 1. The odds of that are just 24% and the bet will pay $41 if I win.[<a href="https://www.thepinpointpress.com/p/how-to-survive-america-in-2026-political-unrest-local-community" target='__blank'>How to survive America in 2026</a>]I’ve closely followed the legal case challenging Trump’s emergency tariffs, which the Supreme Court could rule on at any time. Kalshi offers a trade allowing you to guess how many of the nine justices will vote to uphold the tariffs. I guessed three (Thomas, Alito and and one of the other four conservative justices). The odds of three are 31%. My $10 bet would earn a $30 payout.I also follow the job market closely, and noticed you can bet on the February jobs report, which is due out March 6. I guessed that job gains in February will total less than 40,000, because many economists thought the unusually large 130,000 gain in January was statistically fishy and likely to be corrected downward. Plus, Americans answering confidence surveys are practically shouting about the weakening job market. If they’re right and there’s a small gain or a loss of jobs in February, my $10 bet, at 24% odds, will pay $39.You can also bet on whether certain words, such as “trillion,” “nuclear,” or “transgender,” will or will not be in President Trump’s state of the union speech on February 24. I bet that he will not say the words “ICE” or “National Guard,” because I’m guessing he’ll want to avoid the negative connotations. That’s a contrarian bet. The odds are 88% he will say “ICE” or “National Guard,” and just 12% that he won’t say either. My $10 bet will return $72 if I guess right.[ <a href="https://www.thepinpointpress.com/p/k-shaped-economy-2026-wealth-gap-housing-affordability" target='__blank'>Who’s up and who’s down in the K-shaped economy</a> ]If this particular trade makes you wonder about fraud—me too. A lot of Trump insiders will know what is in his speech, or be able to persuade Trump to say or skip certain words. That’s privileged information they could convert into free money by betting on it.The ability to game prediction markets seems to be a vulnerability. In January, an unknown trader <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/a-400000-payout-after-maduros-capture-put-prediction-markets-in-the-spotlight-heres-how-they-work" target='__blank'>nabbed more than $400,000 on Polymarket</a> by betting that Venezuelan president Nicholas Maduro would soon be out of office—placing the bets right before Trump ordered the operation to snatch Maduro and bring him to the United States. It’s still not clear whether that was a lucky guess or an insider trade. But it obviously could have been an inside job.What do I hope to get from all this? For one, a sense of whether prediction markets actually capture the wisdom of crowds or are just another form of human folly. Some analysts think prediction markets are better than polls at foretelling political outcomes and other eventualities. I’m testing for myself.I’m also wondering what gambling is doing to America. The whole country is becoming a huge casino, with the total amount of legal and illegal gambling approaching $1 trillion per year. Is this sustainable?[<a href="https://www.thepinpointpress.com/p/markets-2026-02-sell-america-trade-global-stock-outperformance" target='__blank'>The “sell America” trade is looking pretty good</a>]Plus, gambling on the news might be fun. I’ll be watching Trump’s state of the union speech no matter what, and I expect it to be a tedious chore. But I’ll be listening closely for the words “ICE” and “National Guard,” which could generate a bit of excitement if it starts to look like I’m in the money. If the words go unsaid, I might even make it to the end of Trump’s speech.<a href="https://www.thepinpointpress.com/" target='__blank'>Subscribe to The Pinpoint Press</a><a href="https://www.thepinpointpress.com/" target='__blank'></a><img data-json="{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Contributor_ffa64a571771525959230.jpg&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}]}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Contributor_ffa64a571771525959230.jpg" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" /><img data-json="{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Contributor Disclaimer (1)_6d6d51de1771525993662.jpg&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}]}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Contributor Disclaimer (1)_6d6d51de1771525993662.jpg" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" />

us_middle_importance

Cryptocurrency

NorthAmerica

Trump concept

Military

Why I Started Gambling on the News

<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/npbTPwConUU" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Amplify ETF_980de39d1771516282455.jpg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/npbTPwConUU&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Amplify ETF_980de39d1771516282455.jpg&quot;}"></video>U.S. equities edged lower Thursday morning as investors weighed stronger-than-expected results from Deere &amp; Company against a more cautious outlook from Walmart.Just before 11 am ET, he Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 110.93 points, or 0.22%, to 49,551.7. The S&amp;P 500 declined 10.30 points, or 0.15%, to 6,871.01, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 27.08 points, or 0.12%, to 22,726.6. The Russell 2000 eased 0.31 point, or 0.12%, to 263.68.Deere posted fiscal first-quarter net income of $656 million, or $2.42 a share, <a href="https://www.ainvest.com/news/deere-blows-estimates-raises-outlook-stock-breaks-construction-rebound-2602/" target='__blank'>exceeding estimates</a> that ranged between $1.92 and $2.10. Revenue climbed 13% year over year to $9.61 billion. The company raised its fiscal 2026 net income outlook to between $4.5 billion and $5.0 billion, up from prior guidance of $4.0 billion to $4.75 billion. <visualization data='{&quot;components&quot;:[{&quot;uuid&quot;:&quot;7fa103984f98681d&quot;,&quot;config&quot;:{&quot;image&quot;:&quot;https://lh-prod-mid-pub-newsf10.s3.amazonaws.com/logo/DE.png&quot;,&quot;marketTag&quot;:&quot;NYSE&quot;,&quot;show_type_id&quot;:702,&quot;tradeClass&quot;:&quot;intraday&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;KxxV2&quot;,&quot;fsType&quot;:&quot;closed&quot;,&quot;showBottom&quot;:true,&quot;showCodeContrast&quot;:false,&quot;score&quot;:20,&quot;show_type&quot;:&quot;kline3&quot;,&quot;maLine&quot;:[5,10,30,60],&quot;moduleList&quot;:[],&quot;variety&quot;:&quot;stock&quot;,&quot;scoreRuleNames&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;tradeStatus&quot;:&quot;trading&quot;,&quot;codeName&quot;:&quot;Name&quot;,&quot;klineDefaultType&quot;:&quot;fs&quot;,&quot;title_config&quot;:{&quot;config&quot;:{&quot;display&quot;:true,&quot;display2&quot;:false,&quot;txt_style&quot;:0,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;&quot;},&quot;data&quot;:{&quot;h1&quot;:&quot;DE Trend&quot;,&quot;h2&quot;:&quot;&quot;},&quot;show_type&quot;:&quot;title1&quot;}},&quot;data&quot;:{&quot;chunks_info&quot;:&quot;[]&quot;,&quot;code_count&quot;:1,&quot;columns&quot;:[{&quot;index_name&quot;:&quot;market_code&quot;,&quot;key&quot;:&quot;market_code&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;market_code&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;STR&quot;},{&quot;index_name&quot;:&quot;code&quot;,&quot;key&quot;:&quot;code&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;hq_code&quot;,&quot;source&quot;:&quot;fixed_index&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;STR&quot;},{&quot;domain&quot;:&quot;abs_xxxxxx&quot;,&quot;feKey&quot;:&quot;Ticker&quot;,&quot;index_name&quot;:&quot;Ticker&quot;,&quot;key&quot;:&quot;Ticker&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;code&quot;,&quot;origin_index&quot;:&quot;stock code&quot;,&quot;source&quot;:&quot;fixed_index&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;STR&quot;,&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;&quot;},{&quot;domain&quot;:&quot;abs_xxxxxx&quot;,&quot;feKey&quot;:&quot;Name&quot;,&quot;index_name&quot;:&quot;Name&quot;,&quot;key&quot;:&quot;Name&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;name&quot;,&quot;origin_index&quot;:&quot;stock name&quot;,&quot;source&quot;:&quot;fixed_index&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;STR&quot;,&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;&quot;},{&quot;feKey&quot;:&quot;Date&quot;,&quot;index_name&quot;:&quot;Date&quot;,&quot;key&quot;:&quot;Date&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;date&quot;,&quot;origin_index&quot;:&quot;Date&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;DATE&quot;},{&quot;domain&quot;:&quot;abs_xxxxxx&quot;,&quot;feKey&quot;:&quot;Closing Price&quot;,&quot;index_name&quot;:&quot;xxxx@Closing Price&quot;,&quot;key&quot;:&quot;Closing Price&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;NoIndent&quot;,&quot;report_type&quot;:&quot;TRADE_DAILY&quot;,&quot;source&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;timestamp&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;DOUBLE&quot;,&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;USD&quot;}],&quot;condition&quot;:&quot;[{\&quot;sonSize\&quot;:2,\&quot;opName\&quot;:\&quot;and\&quot;,\&quot;relatedSize\&quot;:0},{\&quot;sonSize\&quot;:0,\&quot;indexName\&quot;:\&quot;xxxx@stock code\&quot;,\&quot;indexProperties\&quot;:[\&quot;EQUAL DE.N\&quot;],\&quot;indexPropertiesMap\&quot;:{\&quot;EQUAL\&quot;:\&quot;DE.N\&quot;},\&quot;domain\&quot;:\&quot;abs_xxxxxx\&quot;,\&quot;relatedSize\&quot;:0},{\&quot;sonSize\&quot;:0,\&quot;indexName\&quot;:\&quot;xxxx@Closing Price\&quot;,\&quot;indexProperties\&quot;:[\&quot;xxxxxx 20260219\&quot;,\&quot;xxxxxx 20260219\&quot;],\&quot;indexPropertiesMap\&quot;:{\&quot;xxxxxx\&quot;:\&quot;20260219\&quot;,\&quot;xxxxxx\&quot;:\&quot;20260219\&quot;},\&quot;domain\&quot;:\&quot;abs_xxxxxx\&quot;,\&quot;relatedSize\&quot;:0}]&quot;,&quot;dataSize&quot;:1,&quot;datas&quot;:[{&quot;code&quot;:&quot;DE&quot;,&quot;Ticker&quot;:&quot;DE.N&quot;,&quot;market_code&quot;:&quot;169&quot;,&quot;Closing Price&quot;:&quot;661.14&quot;,&quot;Date&quot;:&quot;20260219&quot;,&quot;Name&quot;:&quot;Deere&quot;}],&quot;meta&quot;:{&quot;extra&quot;:{}},&quot;row_count&quot;:1,&quot;status_code&quot;:0,&quot;status_msg&quot;:&quot;ok&quot;},&quot;category&quot;:&quot;generic&quot;,&quot;chart_type&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;show_type&quot;:&quot;jgyKline3&quot;,&quot;title_config&quot;:{&quot;config&quot;:{&quot;display&quot;:true,&quot;display2&quot;:false,&quot;txt_style&quot;:0,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;&quot;},&quot;data&quot;:{&quot;h1&quot;:&quot;DE Trend&quot;,&quot;h2&quot;:&quot;&quot;},&quot;show_type&quot;:&quot;title1&quot;},&quot;support_refresh&quot;:false,&quot;data_config&quot;:{&quot;data_ext_params&quot;:{},&quot;query_type&quot;:&quot;intusstock&quot;}}],&quot;global&quot;:{&quot;query_type&quot;:&quot;intusstock&quot;},&quot;page&quot;:{&quot;language&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;layout&quot;:{&quot;layout_data&quot;:&quot;[{\&quot;showType\&quot;:\&quot;jgyKline3\&quot;,\&quot;uuid\&quot;:\&quot;7fa103984f98681d\&quot;}]&quot;},&quot;render_for&quot;:&quot;aigc&quot;},&quot;data_config&quot;:{&quot;data_ext_params&quot;:{},&quot;query_type&quot;:&quot;intusstock&quot;}}' dataurl='undefined'></visualization>Strength in its Construction &amp; Forestry segment, where sales rose 34% to $2.67 billion, helped offset ongoing pressure in large agriculture equipment. The company has indicated tariff costs could run about $300 million per quarter in fiscal 2026.Walmart also topped quarterly expectations, <a href="https://www.ainvest.com/news/walmart-beats-quarter-outlook-spooked-wall-street-2602/" target='__blank'>reporting adjusted earnings</a> of 74 cents a share on revenue of $190.66 billion. U.S. comparable sales rose 4.6%. However, the retailer guided next-quarter adjusted earnings to 63 to 65 cents a share, below the 68 cents analysts had anticipated. For the full year, it projected adjusted earnings of $2.75 to $2.85 per share, under consensus estimates near $2.96 to $2.97. Walmart authorized a new $30 billion share repurchase program and raised its annual dividend to 99 cents per share.<visualization data='{&quot;components&quot;:[{&quot;uuid&quot;:&quot;66389b583ba7872b&quot;,&quot;config&quot;:{&quot;image&quot;:&quot;https://lh-prod-mid-pub-newsf10.s3.amazonaws.com/logo/WMT.png&quot;,&quot;marketTag&quot;:&quot;NASDAQ&quot;,&quot;show_type_id&quot;:702,&quot;tradeClass&quot;:&quot;intraday&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;KxxV2&quot;,&quot;fsType&quot;:&quot;closed&quot;,&quot;showBottom&quot;:true,&quot;showCodeContrast&quot;:false,&quot;score&quot;:20,&quot;show_type&quot;:&quot;kline3&quot;,&quot;maLine&quot;:[5,10,30,60],&quot;moduleList&quot;:[],&quot;variety&quot;:&quot;stock&quot;,&quot;scoreRuleNames&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;tradeStatus&quot;:&quot;trading&quot;,&quot;codeName&quot;:&quot;Name&quot;,&quot;klineDefaultType&quot;:&quot;fs&quot;,&quot;title_config&quot;:{&quot;config&quot;:{&quot;display&quot;:true,&quot;display2&quot;:false,&quot;txt_style&quot;:0,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;&quot;},&quot;data&quot;:{&quot;h1&quot;:&quot;WMT Trend&quot;,&quot;h2&quot;:&quot;&quot;},&quot;show_type&quot;:&quot;title1&quot;}},&quot;data&quot;:{&quot;chunks_info&quot;:&quot;[]&quot;,&quot;code_count&quot;:1,&quot;columns&quot;:[{&quot;index_name&quot;:&quot;market_code&quot;,&quot;key&quot;:&quot;market_code&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;market_code&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;STR&quot;},{&quot;index_name&quot;:&quot;code&quot;,&quot;key&quot;:&quot;code&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;hq_code&quot;,&quot;source&quot;:&quot;fixed_index&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;STR&quot;},{&quot;domain&quot;:&quot;abs_xxxxxx&quot;,&quot;feKey&quot;:&quot;Ticker&quot;,&quot;index_name&quot;:&quot;Ticker&quot;,&quot;key&quot;:&quot;Ticker&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;code&quot;,&quot;origin_index&quot;:&quot;stock code&quot;,&quot;source&quot;:&quot;fixed_index&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;STR&quot;,&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;&quot;},{&quot;domain&quot;:&quot;abs_xxxxxx&quot;,&quot;feKey&quot;:&quot;Name&quot;,&quot;index_name&quot;:&quot;Name&quot;,&quot;key&quot;:&quot;Name&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;name&quot;,&quot;origin_index&quot;:&quot;stock name&quot;,&quot;source&quot;:&quot;fixed_index&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;STR&quot;,&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;&quot;},{&quot;feKey&quot;:&quot;Date&quot;,&quot;index_name&quot;:&quot;Date&quot;,&quot;key&quot;:&quot;Date&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;date&quot;,&quot;origin_index&quot;:&quot;Date&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;DATE&quot;},{&quot;domain&quot;:&quot;abs_xxxxxx&quot;,&quot;feKey&quot;:&quot;Closing Price&quot;,&quot;index_name&quot;:&quot;xxxx@Closing Price&quot;,&quot;key&quot;:&quot;Closing Price&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;NoIndent&quot;,&quot;report_type&quot;:&quot;TRADE_DAILY&quot;,&quot;source&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;timestamp&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;DOUBLE&quot;,&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;USD&quot;}],&quot;condition&quot;:&quot;[{\&quot;sonSize\&quot;:2,\&quot;opName\&quot;:\&quot;and\&quot;,\&quot;relatedSize\&quot;:0},{\&quot;sonSize\&quot;:0,\&quot;indexName\&quot;:\&quot;xxxx@stock code\&quot;,\&quot;indexProperties\&quot;:[\&quot;EQUAL WMT.O\&quot;],\&quot;indexPropertiesMap\&quot;:{\&quot;EQUAL\&quot;:\&quot;WMT.O\&quot;},\&quot;domain\&quot;:\&quot;abs_xxxxxx\&quot;,\&quot;relatedSize\&quot;:0},{\&quot;sonSize\&quot;:0,\&quot;indexName\&quot;:\&quot;xxxx@Closing Price\&quot;,\&quot;indexProperties\&quot;:[\&quot;xxxxxx 20260219\&quot;,\&quot;xxxxxx 20260219\&quot;],\&quot;indexPropertiesMap\&quot;:{\&quot;xxxxxx\&quot;:\&quot;20260219\&quot;,\&quot;xxxxxx\&quot;:\&quot;20260219\&quot;},\&quot;domain\&quot;:\&quot;abs_xxxxxx\&quot;,\&quot;relatedSize\&quot;:0}]&quot;,&quot;dataSize&quot;:1,&quot;datas&quot;:[{&quot;code&quot;:&quot;WMT&quot;,&quot;Ticker&quot;:&quot;WMT.O&quot;,&quot;market_code&quot;:&quot;185&quot;,&quot;Closing Price&quot;:&quot;129.605&quot;,&quot;Date&quot;:&quot;20260219&quot;,&quot;Name&quot;:&quot;Walmart&quot;}],&quot;meta&quot;:{&quot;extra&quot;:{}},&quot;row_count&quot;:1,&quot;status_code&quot;:0,&quot;status_msg&quot;:&quot;ok&quot;},&quot;category&quot;:&quot;generic&quot;,&quot;chart_type&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;show_type&quot;:&quot;jgyKline3&quot;,&quot;title_config&quot;:{&quot;config&quot;:{&quot;display&quot;:true,&quot;display2&quot;:false,&quot;txt_style&quot;:0,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;&quot;},&quot;data&quot;:{&quot;h1&quot;:&quot;WMT Trend&quot;,&quot;h2&quot;:&quot;&quot;},&quot;show_type&quot;:&quot;title1&quot;},&quot;support_refresh&quot;:false,&quot;data_config&quot;:{&quot;data_ext_params&quot;:{},&quot;query_type&quot;:&quot;intusstock&quot;}}],&quot;global&quot;:{&quot;query_type&quot;:&quot;intusstock&quot;},&quot;page&quot;:{&quot;language&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;layout&quot;:{&quot;layout_data&quot;:&quot;[{\&quot;showType\&quot;:\&quot;jgyKline3\&quot;,\&quot;uuid\&quot;:\&quot;66389b583ba7872b\&quot;}]&quot;},&quot;render_for&quot;:&quot;aigc&quot;},&quot;data_config&quot;:{&quot;data_ext_params&quot;:{},&quot;query_type&quot;:&quot;intusstock&quot;}}' dataurl='undefined'></visualization>The mixed corporate signals left broader indexes drifting, as investors balanced evidence of stabilization in some cyclical industries against signs of margin and cost caution in consumer-focused businesses.

Stock

US food companies

Recession-proof Stocks 

Legacy stocks

Walmart

Deere

Why Stocks Are Slipping Midday: Walmart’s Cautious Outlook Offsets Deere’s Strong Earnings

Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important. Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises. Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool. <h2>The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained</h2> The Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information. With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb. Bringing together a positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has helped stocks report a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time. Furthermore, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest. Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank. <h2>Should You Consider Plug Power?</h2> Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Plug Power (PLUG) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at -$0.06 a share, just 11 days from its upcoming earnings release on March 2, 2026. Plug Power's Earnings ESP sits at +41.93%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the -$0.06 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of -$0.1. PLUG is also part of a large group of stocks that boast a positive ESP. Make sure to utilize our <a href="https://www.zacks.com/registration/premium/login/?continue_to=/premium/esp-buy/&adid=ZCOM_ZP_ARTCAT_TALEOFTAPE_543_021926&icid=blog-tale_of_the_tape|zacks_education_earnings_esp-ARTCAT|021926-ZP-commentary_blog-text-eoac">Earnings ESP Filter</a> to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported. PLUG is just one of a large group of Computer and Technology stocks with a positive ESP figure. Twilio (TWLO) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider. Twilio is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on May 7, 2026. TWLO's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $1.25 a share 77 days from its next earnings release. Twilio's Earnings ESP figure currently stands at +0.15% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.24. PLUG and TWLO's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon. <h2>Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported</h2> Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. <a href="https://www.zacks.com/registration/premium/login/?continue_to=/premium/esp-buy/&adid=ZCOM_ZP_ARTCAT_TALEOFTAPE_543_021926&icid=blog-tale_of_the_tape|zacks_education_earnings_esp-ARTCAT|021926-ZP-commentary_blog-text-eoac">Check it out here >></a> <h2>Should You Invest in Plug Power, Inc. (PLUG)?</h2> Before you invest in Plug Power, Inc. (PLUG), want to know the best stocks to buy for the next 30 days? Check out Zacks Investment Research for our free report on <a href="https://www.zacks.com/registration/ultimatetrader/welcome/eoffer/4e87?add=1473&adid=SYND_AINVEST_ZU_7BESTREPORTA_TALEOFTAPE_543_02192026_2871906&cid=CS-AINVEST-FT-tale_of_the_tape|zacks_education_earnings_esp-2871906">the 7 best stocks</a> to buy. Zacks Investment Research has been committed to providing investors with tools and independent research since 1978. For more than a quarter century, the Zacks Rank stock-rating system has more than doubled the S&P 500 with an average gain of +24.08% per year. (These returns cover a period from January 1, 1988 through May 6, 2024.) Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. <a href="https://www.zacks.com/registration/pfp/?ALERT=RPT_7BST_LP194&ADID=SYND_AINVEST_7BEST_TALEOFTAPE_543_2871906&cid=CS-AINVEST-FT-tale_of_the_tape|zacks_education_earnings_esp-2871906">Click to get this free report</a> <a href="https://www.zacks.com/registration/pfp?ALERT=ZER_LINK&t=PLUG&ADID=SYND_AINVEST_TCK_TALEOFTAPE_543_2871906_PLUG&cid=CS-AINVEST-FT-tale_of_the_tape|zacks_education_earnings_esp-2871906">Plug Power, Inc. (PLUG): Free Stock Analysis Report</a> <a href="https://www.zacks.com/registration/pfp?ALERT=ZER_LINK&t=TWLO&ADID=SYND_AINVEST_TCK_TALEOFTAPE_543_2871906_TWLO&cid=CS-AINVEST-FT-tale_of_the_tape|zacks_education_earnings_esp-2871906">Twilio Inc. (TWLO): Free Stock Analysis Report</a> <a href="https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2871906/how-to-boost-your-portfolio-with-top-computer-and-technology-stocks-set-to-beat-earnings?cid=CS-AINVEST-FT-tale_of_the_tape|zacks_education_earnings_esp-2871906">This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).</a> <a href="https://www.zacks.com/">Zacks Investment Research</a>

Stock Investment Strategies

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Growth Investing

Investing

How to Boost Your Portfolio with Top Computer and Technology Stocks Set to Beat Earnings

<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/HZI2nC2fNlI" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPEpisode22Rule_f6b667021771507332522.jpeg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/HZI2nC2fNlI&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPEpisode22Rule_f6b667021771507332522.jpeg&quot;}"></video>Deere &amp; Company delivered a better-than-expected fiscal <a href="https://s22.q4cdn.com/253594569/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/DE-1Q26-Earnings-Call-Slides.pdf" target='__blank'>first quarter</a> and raised its full-year profit outlook, sending shares roughly 4% higher in pre-market trading. The headline numbers were strong relative to consensus, even as year-over-year comparisons reflected ongoing cyclical pressure in large agriculture. For investors who have been waiting for signs that the downturn in farm equipment demand is nearing a trough, management’s tone and revised guidance were arguably just as important as the earnings beat itself.For the quarter, Deere reported net income of $656 million, or $2.42 per share, ahead of Wall Street expectations that ranged from roughly $1.92 to $2.10 per share depending on the source. Revenue came in at $9.61 billion, well above estimates near $7.6–$7.7 billion and up 13% from $8.51 billion a year ago. Net sales alone were $8.0 billion versus $6.8 billion last year, marking a solid top-line recovery in key segments. While net income declined 25% year over year from $869 million, that comparison reflects a tougher prior-year base and a still-challenged large agriculture environment rather than an operational miss.The segment breakdown shows a clear divergence within the portfolio. Production &amp; Precision Agriculture, which includes Deere’s large ag equipment and technology-heavy offerings, posted net sales of $3.16 billion, up 3% year over year. However, operating profit dropped sharply to $139 million from $338 million, and operating margin compressed to 4.4% from 11.0%. Management cited higher tariffs, an unfavorable sales mix, and higher warranty expenses as the primary drivers of the profit decline. In short, while revenue held up modestly thanks in part to foreign currency translation, profitability in large ag remains under pressure amid weak crop prices and cautious farmer spending.By contrast, Small Agriculture &amp; Turf was a bright spot. Net sales rose 24% to $2.17 billion, driven by higher shipment volumes and favorable currency effects. Operating profit jumped 58% to $196 million, and operating margin expanded to 9.0% from 7.1%. Management attributed the improvement to stronger volumes, positive sales mix, and price realization, partially offset by higher tariff costs. This segment is benefiting from more resilient demand among smaller operators, lifestyle farmers, and turf customers, areas that tend to be less exposed to commodity price swings than large-scale row crop producers.Construction &amp; Forestry was the standout performer. Net sales surged 34% to $2.67 billion, while operating profit more than doubled to $137 million from $65 million. Operating margin improved to 5.1% from 3.3%, reflecting higher shipment volumes, better mix, and production efficiencies, again partially offset by tariff costs. The rebound in construction demand, particularly in the U.S. and Canada, has provided Deere with an important counterbalance to the softness in large agriculture. Management noted that strengthening order books and shipments ahead of plan contributed to the outperformance.Tariffs remain a meaningful headwind across segments. Deere has previously indicated that tariff costs could run around $300 million per quarter in fiscal 2026, or roughly $1.2 billion for the year, up from $600 million in fiscal 2025. In the first quarter, tariff-related costs were embedded within production expenses and explicitly cited as a drag on operating profit in all three equipment segments. While price realization and cost controls have helped mitigate some of the impact, higher input costs tied to imported raw materials continue to pressure margins, particularly in Production &amp; Precision Agriculture.Despite those headwinds, Deere raised its fiscal 2026 net income outlook to a range of $4.5 billion to $5.0 billion, up from its prior guidance of $4.0 billion to $4.75 billion and above consensus expectations near $4.4 billion. The company now expects net sales in both Small Agriculture &amp; Turf and Construction &amp; Forestry to rise approximately 15% for the year, up from earlier forecasts of roughly 10% growth. Production &amp; Precision Agriculture is still expected to see net sales decline 5% to 10%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the large ag cycle.Management struck a cautiously constructive tone on the broader industry backdrop. CEO John May acknowledged that the global large agriculture industry continues to face challenges, with U.S. farmers contending with weak crop prices and elevated input costs. However, he emphasized that recovery in construction and small agriculture demand supports the view that fiscal 2026 represents the bottom of the current cycle. The company also highlighted strengthening order books and its continued investment in research and development, which is expected to support a pipeline of new products across all business segments.From a margin perspective, the story is mixed but stabilizing. Large ag margins remain under significant pressure due to mix and tariffs, but margins in Small Ag &amp; Turf and Construction &amp; Forestry are expanding as volumes recover and production efficiencies improve. Deere’s cost discipline, scaled-back factory production in response to prior weak demand, and efforts to work down dealer inventory appear to be contributing to better operational balance.The industry outlook embedded in management’s commentary reflects a still-fragile but improving environment. For Agriculture &amp; Turf in the U.S. and Canada, Deere expects Large Ag to be down 15% to 20%, while Small Ag &amp; Turf is expected to be flat to up 5%. In Construction &amp; Forestry, U.S. and Canada construction equipment demand is projected to rise about 5%, with compact construction equipment also up around 5%. These projections suggest that while the large ag downturn is not yet over, other end markets are providing incremental growth and profit support.Overall, Deere’s quarter demonstrates that while the core farm equipment cycle remains soft, the broader portfolio is performing better than expected. A significant earnings beat, accelerating growth in construction and small ag, and an upgraded full-year profit forecast point to improving momentum. With tariffs still weighing on margins and large agriculture demand under pressure, the recovery is not uniform. But if management’s view that 2026 marks the bottom of the cycle proves correct, this quarter may be remembered as the first clear step in that turn.

Industrial Concept

Deere Blows Past Estimates and Raises Outlook—Stock Breaks Out on Construction Rebound

<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/HZI2nC2fNlI" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPEpisode22Rule_f183bc491771505325583.jpeg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/HZI2nC2fNlI&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPEpisode22Rule_f183bc491771505325583.jpeg&quot;}"></video>Walmart’s <a href="https://stock.walmart.com/_assets/_bb6ff4a01eee313960e0ea30589b6403/walmart/db/938/9972/earnings_release/Earnings+Release+%28FY26+Q4%29.pdf" target='__blank'>fiscal Q4</a> (holiday quarter) was a familiar “beat the quarter, miss the vibe” setup: results came in a touch better than expected, but the outlook did the real damage, sending shares down about 3% pre-market. On the headline numbers, Walmart posted adjusted EPS of $0.74 versus $0.73 expected, and revenue of $190.66B versus roughly $190.4B expected, with consolidated revenue up 5.6% year over year. The problem is guidance. For next quarter, Walmart guided adjusted EPS to $0.63–$0.65 versus $0.68 expected, and for the year it guided adjusted EPS to $2.75–$2.85 versus $2.96–$2.97 expected, alongside constant-currency sales growth of 3.5%–4.5%. In other words: the engine is still running smoothly, but management is telling you not to expect a new top speed record.<img data-json="{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;c6748205-2207-4e28-a4bb-90206e667080&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}],&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/06b604ff-7ced-46da-9352-aaeddb4dce79_image_216f9f311771506025891.png&quot;}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/06b604ff-7ced-46da-9352-aaeddb4dce79_image_216f9f311771506025891.png" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" />Starting with the key operating metrics investors care about, U.S. comparable sales were strong at +4.6%, slightly above the +4.2% expectation and consistent with Walmart’s steady “share-gain in groceries plus improving discretionary” playbook. The quarter also showed healthy underlying demand: transactions rose 2.6% and average ticket increased 2.0%. Management highlighted that momentum continued into the period, with transaction growth led by digital and described the quarter as featuring broad-based share gains. On profitability, consolidated operating income grew faster than sales, up 10.8% (10.5% adjusted), reflecting a combination of higher gross margin, inventory discipline, some expense leverage, and better e-commerce economics driven by mix and efficiency.Walmart U.S. was the anchor of the quarter and the clearest proof point that the omni strategy is still compounding. U.S. comp sales were up 4.6% and U.S. e-commerce sales jumped 27%, led by store-fulfilled pickup and delivery plus continued growth in marketplace and advertising. Expedited store-fulfilled delivery channels grew more than 50%, which matters because it speaks to Walmart using stores as fulfillment nodes (convenience) without letting fulfillment costs run wild (profitability). Gross profit rate in Walmart U.S. increased 17 bps and operating income rose 6.6%, driven by stronger gross margin, disciplined inventory management, modest operating expense leverage, and improving e-commerce economics. Inventory in Walmart U.S. rose 2.9% with “healthy in-stock levels,” which is a subtle positive: it suggests they’re not starving the shelves to protect margin, but also not drowning in markdown risk.One granular item worth flagging: Walmart noted that U.S. Health &amp; Wellness comp sales reflected about a 200 bps headwind tied to “maximum fair pricing” implemented January 1. That implies a deliberate pricing action that pressured that subcategory’s comp contribution, likely in exchange for price perception, loyalty, or regulatory/plan dynamics. The takeaway is that core U.S. comp strength was solid even with that drag embedded, which makes the headline +4.6% look slightly more resilient than it appears at first glance.Sam’s Club U.S. was good, though not quite as clean versus expectations. Comparable sales rose 4.0% versus about 4.4% expected, but the composition was constructive: sales strength was led by grocery and general merchandise, and comp performance was driven by increased transactions and unit volumes. E-commerce sales at Sam’s increased 23%, with continued strong growth in club-fulfilled pickup and delivery. Membership fee revenue grew 6.1%, supported by steady member counts, renewal rates, and Plus member growth. For the model, membership fees are the high-quality earnings stream, so continued growth there helps offset the fact that Sam’s comp was a touch light.International was a standout on growth, with sales up 11.5% year over year to $35.9B, driven by China, Walmex, and Flipkart, and with strong momentum across both stores and e-commerce. International e-commerce grew 17% in Q4, and management pointed out that Flipkart’s “Big Billion Days” timing was a headwind to Q4 growth (benefiting Q3 instead), which is the kind of calendar noise that matters when you’re trying to handicap trendlines. On profitability, management cited operating income growth helped by lower e-commerce losses and lapping last year’s strategic investments. Translation: they’re still spending, but the incremental dollars are working harder, and the loss profile in the digital business is improving.The “higher-margin engines” were a major highlight and one reason the quarter itself looked better than the stock reaction suggests. Walmart’s global advertising business grew about 37% in the quarter (with Walmart Connect in the U.S. up 41% ex-VIZIO), and full-year global advertising revenue grew 46% to nearly $6.4B. That’s material because retail media carries attractive margins and creates a flywheel with marketplace growth: more third-party sellers and more digital traffic increases ad inventory and ROI, which pulls in more ad dollars. Management also emphasized that membership fee revenue grew 15.1% globally in Q4, another signal that the ecosystem (memberships + marketplace + ads + delivery) is scaling.So why the guidance disappointment if the quarter looked strong? It mostly comes down to margin and expense expectations in a choppy macro and cost environment. Walmart guided constant-currency net sales growth of 3.5%–4.5% for both Q1 and the full year, and guided adjusted operating income growth of 6%–8% (constant currency), which doesn’t scream “margin collapse.” But the EPS guide is below consensus, implying either incremental margin pressure, higher below-the-line expenses, or a more cautious stance on mix and investment. Notably, Walmart expects net interest expense to increase by roughly $200M–$300M, which is a direct EPS headwind in a higher-rate world. They also signaled capital expenditures around 3.5% of net sales, consistent with continued investment in automation, supply chain, and digital capabilities—great for the long term, less great if the market wants near-term EPS acceleration.<img data-json="{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;aa8cfcc8-787e-471b-a50f-1a4bcf29b22b&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}],&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/5b40b000-4dd8-4819-bedb-1e40942b1deb_image_e776132d1771505976667.png&quot;}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/5b40b000-4dd8-4819-bedb-1e40942b1deb_image_e776132d1771505976667.png" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" />On tariffs and cost pressures, Walmart’s messaging is usually pragmatic: they don’t tend to posture; they tend to adjust. The company acknowledged the broader backdrop of inflation and tariff uncertainty as part of the cautious tone embedded in guidance. The practical implication is that tariffs can flow through as higher input costs in certain categories, forcing a choice among price, margin, and mix. Walmart’s scale, sourcing, and private brand capabilities typically allow it to manage tariffs better than most retailers, but “better than most” doesn’t mean “immune,” especially if tariff schedules change quickly or hit categories where the consumer is most price-sensitive. If oil stays bid and freight costs follow, that becomes an additional variable for both pricing and gross margin management.AI commentary was more about direction than a single headline feature: management framed the retail environment as moving toward faster, more convenient, and more personalized experiences, which is exactly where AI gets deployed (search, recommendations, inventory forecasting, routing, labor scheduling, shrink analytics, and ad targeting). Reuters also characterized Walmart’s recent operating playbook as including an “AI transition,” and the quarter’s commentary on improved e-commerce economics and business mix fits that narrative: the tech isn’t just for show; it’s being used to drive efficiency, conversion, and fulfillment productivity. The lack of a flashy AI monetization line item is fine—Walmart’s AI ROI shows up in gross margin basis points and delivery economics, not in an “AI revenue” slide.Finally, capital returns were a bright spot and an underappreciated part of the story given the guidance headline. Walmart authorized a new $30B share repurchase program and increased the annual dividend to $0.99 per share. The company generated $41.6B of operating cash flow and $14.9B of free cash flow, and it ended the quarter with $10.7B in cash against $51.5B of total debt. If management is going to be conservative on EPS guidance, pairing that caution with a large buyback authorization is a clear “we still like our own cash-generation profile” signal.Bottom line: Walmart’s quarter validated the core thesis—share gains, strong digital growth, accelerating advertising, and improving e-commerce economics—across Walmart U.S., Sam’s, and International. The stock is down because the market wanted confident, upside-tilted guidance, and Walmart delivered a deliberately cautious outlook with visible headwinds (higher interest expense, continued investment spend, and tariff/inflation uncertainty) outweighing the quarter’s clean execution. If you’re looking for the swing factor from here, it’s whether advertising and e-commerce profitability keep improving fast enough to offset cost pressures and a more guarded macro setup—because the revenue engine is still doing its job.

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Asia-Pacific

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