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<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/HZI2nC2fNlI" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPEpisode22Rule_aa7ded481772048607196.jpeg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/HZI2nC2fNlI&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPEpisode22Rule_aa7ded481772048607196.jpeg&quot;}"></video>Snowflake <a href="https://finviz.com/news/320600/snowflake-q4-preview-will-earnings-sink-the-stock-again-amid-ai-disruption-fear-trade" target='__blank'>reports after the close</a> on Wednesday, February 25, and it’s arriving as a fresh stress test for large-cap software just as the “AI destroys SaaS” narrative has started to lose a little momentum at the margin. Workday’s initial post-print drop on guidance and subsequent recovery has been a small but notable signal that oversold software is finally attracting buyers willing to underwrite “bad news, but not getting worse.” Snowflake now gets to find out whether that bid is real, or just tourists buying the first green candle.The immediate setup is that expectations are no longer heroic. Wall Street is looking for adjusted EPS of about $0.27 on revenue around $1.26B (compared to $0.30 and $986.8M a year ago), and product revenue around $1.2B, which implies roughly 27% year-over-year growth.<a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/snowflake-earnings-stock-price-07238aa6?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a> Those numbers matter, but in this tape the scorecard is forward indicators: consumption behavior, retention, backlog, and guidance framing. If you’re trying to handicap whether “AI fear” is becoming “AI math,” you won’t find it in a one-quarter revenue beat.Start with what management already put on the table. Coming out of fiscal Q3, Snowflake guided Q4 product revenue to $1.195B–$1.2B and a non-GAAP operating margin of 7%. <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/buy-sell-hold-snow-stock-161800354.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a>The company also raised full-year FY26 product revenue guidance to about $4.446B (28% y/y) and reiterated longer-run margin targets (non-GAAP product gross margin 75%, non-GAAP operating margin 9%, adjusted free cash flow margin 25%). <a href="https://www.snowflake.com/en/news/press-releases/snowflake-reports-financial-results-for-the-third-quarter-of-fiscal-2026/?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a>That guidance is important because the market is already primed to punish any hint that profitable growth is slipping, even if top-line optics remain fine.To understand “ <a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/snowflake-earnings-stock-price-07238aa6?gaa_at=eafs&amp;gaa_n=AWEtsqdnfNaYhya_qfw73jOn3Da3TZw11wA8cE9sSy-b6fedbvkh87T2GPdGyA-Nzmc%3D&amp;gaa_ts=699f4ef2&amp;gaa_sig=ZAq_AC7IZP2cYjNfEQDpRIHCgOl0qtsMpm2-M181W6UyI4tpRI5PHO9gfLBtzNNf5XcSoKg5bBflz7dGYN9d_A%3D%3D" target='__blank'>erosion risk</a> ,” you have to anchor the key Q3 run-rate metrics and then look for cracks. In Q3, Snowflake reported product revenue of $1.16B (+29% y/y), net revenue retention (NRR) of 125%, and remaining performance obligations (RPO) of $7.88B (+37% y/y).<a href="https://www.snowflake.com/en/news/press-releases/snowflake-reports-financial-results-for-the-third-quarter-of-fiscal-2026/?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a> If Q4 product revenue prints below the guided range or product growth drops meaningfully below that ~high-20s trajectory, the market will read it as more than seasonality—it will read it as consumption softness. The company’s own framing has conditioned investors to think a modest beat to plan is “solid,” so the magnitude of the beat (or lack of one) will matter more than usual.Here are the key things to watch to assess whether the business is bending, not just bouncing:<li>Product revenue growth and “re-acceleration” optics. The buyside is sensitive to whether product growth can reprint with a “3-handle” (30%+) after Q3’s 29% and Q4’s guided ~27%. A clean beat that lands growth closer to 30% can help reprice the narrative from “structural slowdown” to “stable core + new workloads.” <a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/snowflake-earnings-stock-price-07238aa6?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a> Conversely, a print that confirms a step-down (with cautious FY27 guide) keeps the stock in the penalty box regardless of “AI buzz.”</li><li>NRR and consumption commentary. Snowflake’s consumption model is one reason many analysts argue it sits “above the AI disruption fray,” because increased data volumes and inference workloads can actually drive higher usage rather than compress seat counts. Still, if NRR slips from 125% or management describes customers optimizing usage aggressively, that’s your first real sign the environment is tightening. <a href="https://www.snowflake.com/en/news/press-releases/snowflake-reports-financial-results-for-the-third-quarter-of-fiscal-2026/?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a></li><li>Backlog signals (RPO) and the quality of demand. RPO growth at 37% in Q3 is strong; investors will want to see that backlog growth remains healthy and isn’t being propped up by contract structuring while real consumption slows. <a href="https://www.snowflake.com/en/news/press-releases/snowflake-reports-financial-results-for-the-third-quarter-of-fiscal-2026/?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a>This is where you listen for commentary on migrations, workload expansions, and whether new use cases are broadening beyond core warehousing.</li><li>Large-customer health and scaling. Snowflake had 688 customers with trailing 12-month product revenue over $1M (as of Q3).<a href="https://www.snowflake.com/en/news/press-releases/snowflake-reports-financial-results-for-the-third-quarter-of-fiscal-2026/?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a> Watch whether that cohort expands meaningfully and whether management highlights more large, multi-year migrations—because that’s the clearest evidence the platform remains strategic in enterprise data stacks.</li>The AI debate is the headline, but Snowflake’s version is more nuanced than “agents replace apps.” Snowflake is selling the idea that AI increases the value (and usage) of governed enterprise data: more analytics, more pipelines, more feature-store-like behavior, more inference running close to data. A big proof point here is the company’s multi-year $200M partnership with OpenAI to bring advanced models directly into Snowflake for enterprise customers, which is designed to make Snowflake a governed gateway for AI agents and natural-language data interaction. <a href="https://www.snowflake.com/en/news/press-releases/snowflake-and-openAI-forge-200-million-partnership-to-bring-enterprise-ready-ai-to-the-worlds-most-trusted-data-platform/?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a>If management can point to material adoption of Cortex/Snowflake Intelligence workflows—especially in production, not just pilots—that strengthens the “AI helps” framing. If the talk stays abstract (“excited,” “early,” “building”) while consumption commentary softens, the market will assume AI is a roadmap slide, not a revenue lever.Guidance is the other landmine. Investors are already focused on FY27 framing, especially because this is the first time new CFO Brian Robins will be setting the full-year guide, and the Street is debating whether FY27 growth assumptions are too optimistic relative to FY26’s net-new dollars. That’s why even a decent quarter can still produce volatility if the FY27 product revenue outlook is merely “in line” but framed conservatively. (<a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/snowflake-earnings-stock-price-07238aa6?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'>Barron&#39;s</a>) In short: beat the quarter, don’t miss the story.Technically, the stock appears to be trying to build a floor around the $157 area. That matters because it suggests capitulation may be behind it, but a V-shaped recovery is hard to sustain without a clean guide—especially in a market that’s been treating software multiples like they’re perishable goods. A solid print with constructive FY27 commentary could put $185 in play as the next logical reclaim zone; disappointment on product growth or a cautious outlook likely reopens the question of whether “bottom” was just a temporary ceasefire.Bottom line: for this earnings call, treat Snowflake as a “consumption + guidance” story wearing an AI costume. If product growth stabilizes/re-accelerates, NRR holds, RPO stays healthy, and management can tie AI partnerships to real workloads, the stock can credibly rotate from “AI victim” to “AI enabler.” If any of those pillars wobble, the market will conclude the software group’s anxiety isn’t oversold—it’s underwritten.

us_low_importance

Stock

NorthAmerica

WallStreetBets

Software stocks 

Metaverse

Snowflake

Snowflake’s Make-or-Break Moment: Can AI Fears Finally Be Silenced?

<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/HZI2nC2fNlI" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPEpisode22Rule_8933e9f31772041096864.jpeg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/HZI2nC2fNlI&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPEpisode22Rule_8933e9f31772041096864.jpeg&quot;}"></video>Salesforce <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/salesforce-crm-q4-earnings-preview-141506429.html" target='__blank'>reports after the close</a> on Wednesday, February 25, 2026, and it’s shaping up as another referendum on whether “AI eats software” is a real earnings problem or just a narrative with good PR. <a href="https://investor.salesforce.com/news/news-details/2026/Salesforce-Announces-Timing-of-its-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-Fiscal-2026-Results-Conference-Call/default.aspx?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a> Workday’s post-print slide (and subsequent recovery) has helped the group’s tone a bit: the initial guidance-driven hit mattered, but the dip-buying matters more because it suggests the software tape may be moving from panic to price discovery. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/workday-tumbles-dour-revenue-outlook-amid-ai-threat-2026-02-25/?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a> Salesforce is a bigger test because it sits right at the intersection of the fear (seat deflation, DIY agents, budget reallocation) and the counterargument (embedded workflows, data gravity, and an app-layer distribution machine that can package AI and charge for it).<a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/salesforces-earnings-stock-price-dffbc88b?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a>What analysts are looking for starts with the basics: Wall Street consensus sits around adjusted EPS of about $3.05 on revenue around $11.18–$11.19 billion for the quarter.<a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/salesforces-earnings-stock-price-dffbc88b?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a> More important is whether the “AI helps the platform” story shows up in forward indicators rather than just in buzzwords. In the last reported quarter (fiscal Q3), Salesforce posted revenue of $10.26 billion (+9% y/y) and reported current remaining performance obligation (cRPO) of $29.4 billion (+11% y/y). <a href="https://investor.salesforce.com/news/news-details/2025/Salesforce-Delivers-Record-Third-Quarter-Fiscal-2026-Results-Driven-by-Agentforce--Data-360/default.aspx?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a>Management also pointed to Agentforce and Data 360 reaching nearly $1.4 billion in ARR (+114% y/y), with Agentforce ARR disclosed at $540 million (+330% y/y). <a href="https://investor.salesforce.com/news/news-details/2025/Salesforce-Delivers-Record-Third-Quarter-Fiscal-2026-Results-Driven-by-Agentforce--Data-360/default.aspx?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a>Those are the “proof points” bulls will anchor to; the bears will ask whether those figures are still small relative to the installed base and whether they’re meaningfully bending the revenue curve.The cleanest way to watch for erosion is to treat this as a bookings/backlog print masquerading as an AI debate. First, focus on cRPO growth and total RPO trajectory. cRPO is the near-term backlog proxy and tends to be a better “temperature check” than revenue in a quarter where execution timing can move deals around. Salesforce itself emphasized cRPO strength in Q3 as evidence of pipeline health. <a href="https://investor.salesforce.com/news/news-details/2025/Salesforce-Delivers-Record-Third-Quarter-Fiscal-2026-Results-Driven-by-Agentforce--Data-360/default.aspx?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a> If cRPO growth decelerates materially versus the prior quarter’s ~11% level, that will feed the “AI is slowing seat-based expansion” narrative fast. Second, scrutinize any commentary on deal cycles, downsell/rightsizing, and renewals. AI-driven “seat deflation” is ultimately a renewal math issue: fewer seats, lower per-seat, or more discounting to keep logos. That won’t always show up immediately in headline revenue, but it will show up in booking quality, renewal discussions, and forward-looking commentary. <a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/salesforces-earnings-stock-price-dffbc88b?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a>Agentforce is the headline product, but the market is going to grade it like a CFO: attach rate, time to production, and monetization, not demo velocity. Recent channel commentary cited by analysts suggests pilots and trials are increasingly converting into paying contracts and add-ons, which is exactly what Salesforce needs to prove this is a real product cycle rather than a “free trial forever” feature.<a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/salesforces-earnings-stock-price-dffbc88b?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a> Watch for updates that separate “customers experimenting” from “customers in production,” and any disclosure that ties Agentforce to broader platform expansion (multi-cloud wins, Data Cloud pull-through, higher net new ACV/AOV). If management can credibly argue that Agentforce improves core cloud retention/expansion (Sales, Service, Platform, Integration/Analytics, Slack), it becomes a defense against the disruption narrative: even if AI changes workflows, Salesforce is the system of record that gets to monetize the change.On guidance: Salesforce previously raised its fiscal 2026 revenue outlook to about $41.45–$41.55 billion and lifted adjusted EPS guidance into the ~$11.75–$11.77 range range around the fiscal Q3 report, so investors will be looking for any reaffirmation or tightening, plus how much of the story is “AI-driven upside” versus normal execution. <a href="https://investor.salesforce.com/news/news-details/2025/Salesforce-Delivers-Record-Third-Quarter-Fiscal-2026-Results-Driven-by-Agentforce--Data-360/default.aspx?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a> For the quarter specifically, some previews note Salesforce’s own ranges that bracket consensus (revenue roughly in the low-$11B range and EPS around the low-$3 range), which puts extra weight on commentary and forward indicators because the bar for “in-line” is already well set. <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-bullish-salesforce-crm-101751228.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a>If the company guides conservatively on cRPO growth or implies macro softness in key verticals, the market will assume the AI “help” isn’t offsetting budget scrutiny yet.So what should you watch for if you’re trying to judge whether the business is wearing down underneath the AI noise?<li>Core demand health: any signs of slower new logo adds, more downsell at renewal, longer deal cycles, or heavier discounting. These are the first real-world fingerprints of “AI disruption” because they reflect buyer behavior, not product announcements.</li><li>Bookings/backlog quality: cRPO and any billings/booking commentary. When investors are nervous, backlog is the lie detector.</li><li>Mix shift and margin: Salesforce has shown strong non-GAAP margin performance recently; if AI attach requires materially higher costs (model usage, infrastructure, services) without monetization, margins will tell you before revenue does. <a href="https://investor.salesforce.com/news/news-details/2025/Salesforce-Delivers-Record-Third-Quarter-Fiscal-2026-Results-Driven-by-Agentforce--Data-360/default.aspx?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a></li><li>Agentforce reality checks: ARR growth is great, but what matters now is conversion to production, expansion within the installed base, and whether it’s incremental (new dollars) versus substitutive (discounted bundles). <a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/salesforces-earnings-stock-price-dffbc88b?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a></li>Analyst framing is split in a familiar way: the bullish camp argues fears of rapid SaaS displacement are overstated and that Salesforce is strategically positioned in the AI ecosystem (apps + data + workflow), while the more cautious camp acknowledges better feedback but wants proof the revenue/backlog curve is bending meaningfully higher. <a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/salesforces-earnings-stock-price-dffbc88b?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a> That makes this print less about “did they beat EPS by a nickel” and more about whether management can show that AI is a growth accelerant rather than a seat-count reducer.Finally, on the stock: the $175 area you cited matters as a potential bottom, but a true V-shaped recovery is always the market’s way of saying “we panicked efficiently.” If the report is clean and the forward indicators hold (especially cRPO), a move back toward $200 is plausible; if cRPO or demand commentary cracks, the tape will assume the software group’s “AI anxiety” still has more chapters. Either way, Salesforce is likely to set the tone for enterprise software in the near term—because if the category leader can’t narrate AI as additive, everyone else will be doing it with a tremor. <a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/salesforces-earnings-stock-price-dffbc88b?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target='__blank'></a>

Cloud

Artificial Intelligence

SaaS

Cloud Computing

Salesforce

Salesforce’s Earnings Are the Software Market’s AI Moment of Truth

The rivalry between PepsiCo Inc. <a href="https://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/PEP">PEP</a> and The Coca-Cola Company <a href="https://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/KO">KO</a> stands among the most enduring, globally influential and strategically complex battles in corporate history. Both companies command immense global reach, powerful brand portfolios and entrenched distribution systems, yet their paths to market leadership differ meaningfully. Coca-Cola stands as the world’s leading pure-play beverage company, dominating the carbonated soft drink category while steadily expanding in water, sports drinks and zero-sugar offerings. Its asset-light, concentrate-driven model emphasizes brand equity, marketing scale and global bottling partnerships, reinforcing its strong international market share. PepsiCo, meanwhile, operates a more diversified model. In addition to competing aggressively in beverages, it controls a leading position in convenient foods, giving it broader shelf presence and stronger negotiating leverage with retailers. This dual-engine structure shapes its revenue mix and resilience across cycles. In this face-off, we explore how market share strength, competitive positioning and business model differences influence long-term growth potential and defensive appeal. <h2>The Case for PEP</h2> PepsiCo’s investment thesis is anchored in its scale, category leadership and diversified operating model. Management underscored the company’s strong global footprint across both beverages and convenient foods, enabling it to capture share across multiple consumption occasions. In beverages, PepsiCo maintains a meaningful position in carbonated soft drinks, sports drinks and zero-sugar offerings, while snacks continue to hold leading market share positions in several regions. This dual-engine structure enhances shelf dominance and strengthens retailer partnerships, reinforcing its competitive moat within the broader beverage industry. PepsiCo is leaning into disciplined revenue management, premium innovation and geographic expansion. Ongoing investments in digital tools are improving demand forecasting, supply-chain visibility and consumer engagement, particularly through data-driven marketing and e-commerce capabilities. PepsiCo’s portfolio strategy balances legacy powerhouse brands with innovation in health-forward and functional products, allowing it to target younger consumers while retaining core loyal demographics. International markets remain a key growth lever, supported by localized innovation and distribution expansion. Productivity initiatives and disciplined capital allocation continue to support margins and cash flow resilience. However, management acknowledged headwinds from input-cost volatility, foreign exchange pressure and cautious consumer spending, which may temper near-term performance despite solid underlying fundamentals. <h2>The Case for KO</h2> Coca-Cola’s investment appeal rests on its commanding global scale and enduring brand leadership across the non-alcoholic ready-to-drink beverage industry. Management emphasized continued value share gains and broad-based momentum, reinforcing its position as the category leader in sparkling soft drinks while expanding in water, sports drinks, coffee and zero-sugar offerings. The company commands a meaningful share of the global beverage market, supported by an unmatched distribution system and a portfolio anchored by iconic trademarks that appeal across age groups and income segments. Its strong brand positioning enables pricing power and consistent consumer loyalty. Coca-Cola continues to leverage its asset-light, concentrate-driven model to drive profitable growth. The company is advancing premiumization, pack innovation and reformulation efforts to align with health-conscious trends. Digital investments in data analytics, marketing precision and customer tools are strengthening retailer partnerships and route-to-market execution, particularly in emerging markets where per-capita consumption remains underpenetrated. Management highlighted resilient organic growth and disciplined margin management. Still, headwinds from currency volatility, commodity inflation, regulatory scrutiny and cautious consumer spending may weigh on the company’s near-term performance despite solid long-term fundamentals. <h2>Price Performance & Valuation of PEP & KO</h2> In the past year, shares of PepsiCo have risen 11.9% compared with Coca-Cola’s rally of 14%. Both companies have demonstrated resilience amid a challenging consumer backdrop, reflecting investor confidence in their defensive business models and global brand strength. <img alt="Zacks Investment Research" src="https://staticx-tuner.zacks.com/images/articles/charts/66/148060.jpg?v=1971558865" oss-type="s3" oss-key="3536a94936412bd0" onerror="javascript: this.parentNode.style.display='none';"> Image Source: Zacks Investment Research From a valuation standpoint, PEP currently trades at a lower forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 19.61X compared with Coca-Cola’s 24.74X, making it more attractively priced, driven by its earnings and diversified revenue stream. <img alt="Zacks Investment Research" src="https://staticx-tuner.zacks.com/images/articles/charts/d4/148062.jpg?v=2027622244" oss-type="s3" oss-key="282af7e449adb9fc" onerror="javascript: this.parentNode.style.display='none';"> Image Source: Zacks Investment Research PepsiCo trades at a more modest forward earnings multiple compared with Coca-Cola. This relatively lower valuation suggests the market is assigning a premium to Coca-Cola’s pure-play beverage focus and recent momentum, while PepsiCo’s diversified food and beverage portfolio offers investors exposure at a comparatively more attractive price point. <h2>How Does Zacks Consensus Estimate Compare for PEP & KO?</h2> PepsiCo’s EPS estimate for 2026 declined 0.3% in the last seven days, while that for 2027 edged down 0.7% in the same period. PEP’s 2026 revenues and EPS are projected to increase 4.3% and 5% year over year to $98 billion and $8.55 per share, respectively. <img alt="Zacks Investment Research" src="https://staticx-tuner.zacks.com/images/articles/charts/68/148061.jpg?v=1093016840" oss-type="s3" oss-key="f56cbc1e17abb37e" onerror="javascript: this.parentNode.style.display='none';"> Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Coca-Cola’s EPS estimates for 2026 have moved up 0.3% in the past seven days, while that for 2027 has been unchanged in the past 30 days. KO’s 2026 revenues and EPS are expected to increase 4.3% and 8% year over year to $49.9 billion and $3.24 per share, respectively. <img alt="Zacks Investment Research" src="https://staticx-tuner.zacks.com/images/articles/charts/33/148063.jpg?v=1416713663" oss-type="s3" oss-key="aec0b718bdae1fc8" onerror="javascript: this.parentNode.style.display='none';"> Image Source: Zacks Investment Research <h2></h2> <h2>PEP vs. KO: Which Has the Edge?</h2> In this beverage face-off, Coca-Cola moves ahead, supported by stronger recent share performance and firmer growth momentum. The company’s focused beverage model, steady market share gains and positive estimate revisions signal improving earnings visibility and sustained investor confidence. With disciplined execution and expanding presence in premium and zero-sugar categories, Coca-Cola appears well-positioned to build on its leadership. That said, PepsiCo remains a compelling contender. Its diversified food and beverage portfolio provides resilience, and its comparatively lower valuation suggests optimism around long-term earnings potential. For investors seeking momentum and earnings visibility, Coca-Cola takes the lead. However, for value and diversification, PepsiCo still makes a strong case. Both PEP and KO currently carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see <a href="https://www.zacks.com/stocks/buy-list/?ADID=zp_1link&ICID=zpi_1link">the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here</a>. <h2>Zacks Names #1 Semiconductor Stock</h2> This under-the-radar company specializes in semiconductor products that titans like NVIDIA don't build. It's uniquely positioned to take advantage of the next growth stage of this market. And it's just beginning to enter the spotlight, which is exactly where you want to be. With strong earnings growth and an expanding customer base, it's positioned to feed the rampant demand for Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Internet of Things. Global semiconductor manufacturing is projected to explode from $452 billion in 2021 to $971 billion by 2028.<a href="https://www.zacks.com/registration/ultimatetrader/welcome/eoffer/6a57?adid=SYND_AINVEST_ZU_SEMICONDUCTORREPORTA_ANALYSTBLOG_292_IND_02252026_2875209&cid=CS-AINVEST-FT-analyst_blog|most_popular_stocks-2875209">See This Stock Now for Free >></a> Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. <a href="https://www.zacks.com/registration/pfp/?ALERT=RPT_7BST_LP194&ADID=SYND_AINVEST_7BEST_ANALYSTBLOG_292_2875209&cid=CS-AINVEST-FT-analyst_blog|most_popular_stocks-2875209">Click to get this free report</a> <a href="https://www.zacks.com/registration/pfp?ALERT=ZER_LINK&t=KO&ADID=SYND_AINVEST_TCK_ANALYSTBLOG_292_2875209_KO&cid=CS-AINVEST-FT-analyst_blog|most_popular_stocks-2875209">CocaCola Company (The) (KO): Free Stock Analysis Report</a> <a href="https://www.zacks.com/registration/pfp?ALERT=ZER_LINK&t=PEP&ADID=SYND_AINVEST_TCK_ANALYSTBLOG_292_2875209_PEP&cid=CS-AINVEST-FT-analyst_blog|most_popular_stocks-2875209">PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP): Free Stock Analysis Report</a> <a href="https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2875209/pepsico-vs-coca-cola-which-beverage-giant-wins-the-cola-war?cid=CS-AINVEST-FT-analyst_blog|most_popular_stocks-2875209">This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).</a> <a href="https://www.zacks.com/">Zacks Investment Research</a>

us_middle_importance

Coffee

Pepsico

The Coca-Cola

PepsiCo vs. Coca-Cola: Which Beverage Giant Wins the Cola War?

The setup for Nvidia's report is a classic case of expectations running ahead of the news. The market consensus is clear: Wall Street expects the company to deliver a strong quarter, with analysts polled by FactSet forecasting <a href="https://www.investors.com/news/technology/nvidia-stock-nvda-fiscal-q4-2026-earnings/">adjusted earnings of $1.54 a share on sales of $66.13 billion</a> for the fiscal fourth quarter ended January 25. The real story, however, is in the muted anticipation reflected in the options market. Traders are pricing in a mere <a href="https://www.finedayradio.com/news/tv-delmarva-channel-33/wall-street-expects-nvidias-smallest-post-earnings-stock-move-in-three-years/">5.6% stock swing after the report</a>, the smallest anticipated move for any Nvidia earnings release in at least three years.This subdued forecast is the direct result of an expectation gap that has been closing for months. The AI boom's peak is already priced in. The stock's recent pattern of smaller price movements following quarterly reports-just one of its last five earnings releases saw a move over 5%-signals that the element of surprise has diminished. With 80+ analysts covering the name and every major fund scrutinizing AI capex trends, positioning and estimates are far more refined than they were during the explosive 2023 phase. As one strategist noted, the market has simply not been moving the way it used to on earnings.The data center segment, which drives the company's growth story, shows this dynamic in action. While the consensus expects <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/nvidia-earnings-preview-q4-2026">Data Center revenue of $60.1 billion, up almost 15% year-over-year</a>, the debate is already shifting to the next catalyst: the ramp of Blackwell. The wide range of forecasts for this new product-from $7.1 billion to $53.8 billion-highlights the uncertainty that once fueled volatility. Now, that uncertainty is being absorbed into the current price, leaving less room for a positive surprise. The bottom line is that the market is betting that the report will meet, but not exceed, these already-high expectations. For a stock this large and influential, that sets up a high-risk "sell the news" dynamic.<h2>Reality Check: Can Nvidia Beat the Whisper Number?</h2>The market's muted expectations create a clear target: Nvidia must beat the whisper number just to hold its ground. Morgan Stanley's research provides a concrete benchmark, with analyst Joseph Moore expressing <a href="https://www.heygotrade.com/en/news/morgan-stanley-and-bofa-double-down-on-nvidia-before-q4-earnings">high confidence that the company will deliver revenue of at least $2 billion above the $64 billion guidance</a>. That's a significant beat against the company's own conservative forecast, suggesting the underlying demand for AI compute remains robust enough to surprise even internal targets. The company's last quarter was a textbook example of this dynamic, coming in nearly $3 billion above guidance with <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-resets-nvidia-stock-050300058.html">$10 billion of sequential revenue growth</a>. If the pattern holds, the stock could see a positive reaction on the news.<visualization data='{"components":[{"show_type":"jgyNewLowcode","config":{"type":"iwcapp/stockBackTestTool","version":"0.0.3","url":"//cdn.ainvest.com/frontResources/s/foiegras/stockBackTestTool/0.0.3/stockBackTestTool@0.0.3index.js"},"data":{"columns":[{"index_name":"strategy_basic_info","key":"strategy_basic_info","type":"Object"},{"index_name":"backtest_condition","key":"backtest_condition","type":"Object"},{"index_name":"backtest_result","key":"backtest_result","type":"STR"}],"datas":[{"strategy_basic_info":{"name":"RSI(14) Oversold Long-Only Strategy","description":"Long NVDA when RSI(14) &lt; 30; exit when RSI(14) &gt; 70, or after 20 trading days, or take-profit +8%, or stop-loss −4%. Backtest period: 2024-02-25 to 2026-02-25."},"backtest_condition":{"object":{"display_name":"Object","type":"ticker","ticker":["NVDA"]},"open_signal":{"display_name":"Open Signal","type":"criteria","criteria":"RSI(14) &lt; 30"},"sell_signal":{"display_name":"Close Signal","type":"criteria","criteria":"RSI(14) &gt; 70, or after 20 trading days, or take-profit +8%, or stop-loss −4%"},"risk_control":{"display_name":"Risk Control","parameters":{"take_profit":{"display_name":"Take-Profit","value":8,"unit":"%"},"stop_loss":{"display_name":"Stop-Loss","value":4,"unit":"%"},"max_holding_days":{"display_name":"Hold Days","value":20}}}},"backtest_result":"https://cdn.ainvest.com/backtest/agent/session/784562/1800109709/b08a4450-1ae4-4120-8865-9ee1a55437f6/nvda_rsi14_backtest_result_20240225_20260225.json"}]},"uuid":"1772035469452"}],"page":{"layout":{"layout_mode":"grid","layout_data":"[{\"uuid\": \"1772035469452\", \"show_type\": \"jgyNewLowcode\"}]"}}}'></visualization> Profitability is the other half of the beat equation. The company has set a clear GAAP gross margin target for the quarter of 74.8% plus or minus 0.5%. Holding that line, or even nudging it higher, would signal that the company is managing its cost structure effectively as it scales. Given the intense focus on margins in the semiconductor sector, a miss here could be more damaging than a slight revenue shortfall. The expectation is for a clean beat on both top and bottom lines.<backtest-component code="NVDA" id="event_001" range="3" market="185"></backtest-component>Yet the real catalyst for a sustained move will be forward guidance. <visualization dataurl="https://cdn.ainvest.com/news/visual/visual_components/viz_xl2nqxsx.json"></visualization> The transition from the current Blackwell architecture to the next-generation Vera Rubin is moving faster than expected, and that shift is the key to resetting growth expectations. Morgan Stanley notes the pivot has been happening faster than earlier projections suggested, with the Vera Rubin ramp potentially steeper than anticipated. The market will be watching the Q4 call for details on this transition timeline and the initial demand signals for Rubin. A clear path to a smooth, accelerated ramp would validate the bullish price targets from firms like Morgan Stanley and Bank of America, which see the full-year revenue consensus of $72 billion as "pretty safe."The bottom line is that the stock's reaction hinges on whether the report closes the expectation gap or merely confirms it. A revenue beat and margin hold are table stakes. The real move will come if management provides the kind of forward visibility on Vera Rubin that could justify a re-rating. Without that, even a strong quarter may be met with a "sell the news" response.<h2>The Catalysts and Risks: What Could Change the Narrative</h2>The post-earnings setup is now defined by two opposing forces. On one side, the stock's recent recovery from a sharp drop suggests that the worst fears of an AI bubble bursting are subsiding. After falling to <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-resets-nvidia-stock-050300058.html">$171.88 on February 5</a>, the shares have climbed back toward the $180 range ahead of this report. This rebound implies that the market is regaining confidence in the durability of AI demand, which could support a more positive reaction to a solid quarter. The hope is that the incoming wave of Blackwell-trained models and the upcoming Vera Rubin launch will reignite high expectations for future growth.Yet the biggest risk remains a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" dynamic. The market has already priced in a strong quarter, with the whisper number for revenue likely well above the company's own guidance. If Nvidia delivers that beat but fails to provide compelling forward guidance on the Vera Rubin ramp, the stock could face immediate pressure. The last earnings report was a textbook example: the company smashed expectations with $3 billion of upside and $10 billion of sequential revenue growth, yet the stock fell the next day. That negative reaction underscores that a strong print alone is no longer enough to drive the price higher. The catalyst for a sustained move is clear visibility on the next growth engine.A persistent, structural risk is enhanced government scrutiny of Nvidia's dominant market position. Analysts have flagged this as a key downside factor, noting the potential for enhanced government scrutiny of Nvidia's dominant market position in AI chips. While not an immediate earnings item, this regulatory overhang creates a long-term vulnerability that could cap the stock's multiple. Any hint of accelerated regulatory action, or even a formal investigation, would likely trigger a sharp reassessment of the company's growth premium.The bottom line is that the stock's path hinges on guidance. The recovery from the February lows provides a floor, but the ceiling will be set by management's ability to articulate a credible, accelerated path beyond Blackwell. Without that, even a beat may be met with a "sell the news" response, leaving the stock vulnerable to the very regulatory and competitive risks that linger in the background.

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Semiconductor

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Nvidia

Nvidia's Q4 Earnings: The AI Boom's Expectation Gap

<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/X-Ew57Gh19I" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPBitcoin60K_80ae86a61772026950015.jpg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/X-Ew57Gh19I&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPBitcoin60K_80ae86a61772026950015.jpg&quot;}"></video>Circle Internet Group delivered a <a href="https://s206.q4cdn.com/265218871/files/doc_earnings/2025/q4/earnings-result/4Q25-Earnings-Release.pdf" target='__blank'>breakout fourth quarter</a> , crushing Wall Street expectations and sending shares up roughly 15% in early trading as investors reassessed the earnings power of the stablecoin model. The company behind USDC reported Q4 EPS of $0.43, well ahead of consensus estimates that ranged from $0.16 to $0.25 depending on the source. Revenue and reserve income totaled $770 million, up 77% year over year and above estimates near $745 million, while adjusted EBITDA came in at $167 million, up 412% from a year ago. After a 23% year-to-date decline and a stunning 77% drop from its post-IPO highs, the report marks a potential turning point in sentiment.To understand the significance of the quarter, it helps to understand Circle’s business model. Circle issues USDC, a dollar-pegged stablecoin backed by cash and short-term U.S. Treasuries. Unlike Bitcoin, which is volatile and speculative, USDC is designed to hold a steady $1 value. Circle earns most of its revenue by investing the reserves backing USDC into low-risk assets and capturing the yield. In other words, it monetizes stability and scale.That scale is accelerating. USDC in circulation grew 72% year over year to $75.3 billion at the end of Q4, though it did come in slightly below some consensus estimates around $77 billion. More striking was transaction activity: USDC on-chain volume hit $11.9 trillion in Q4, up 247% year over year, and meaningful wallets rose to 6.8 million. That surge in usage translated directly into reserve income of $733 million, up 69% from the prior year. The quarter confirms that adoption, not just interest rates, is driving growth.Revenue less distribution cost (RLDC) margin improved to 40%, up from 39% in Q3 and 30% a year ago, highlighting improving operating leverage. Adjusted EBITDA margin came in at 54%, reflecting the capital-light nature of the business. However, costs are rising alongside scale. Total distribution, transaction, and other costs climbed to $461 million, up 52% year over year, and GAAP operating expenses nearly doubled to $254 million, partly due to IPO-related stock-based compensation and higher payroll taxes. Even so, adjusted operating expenses grew at a more manageable 32%, and the core earnings trajectory remains strong.Regulatory momentum is also becoming a structural tailwind. The GENIUS Act, signed into law last year, provides a federal framework for dollar-pegged stablecoins, and Circle recently received preliminary approval to establish a national trust bank charter. Those developments reduce regulatory uncertainty and position USDC as a compliant digital dollar alternative for enterprises and institutions. Partnerships with Visa and integration into real-world payments and treasury workflows further legitimize its use case.One natural question for crypto investors is what this means for Bitcoin? Stablecoins and Bitcoin serve different purposes. Bitcoin is a store-of-value and speculative asset; stablecoins like USDC are transactional rails. In some cases, rising stablecoin usage can support Bitcoin liquidity by providing a bridge between fiat and crypto markets. However, in periods of risk aversion, investors may rotate from volatile assets like Bitcoin into stablecoins, which could contribute to short-term Bitcoin weakness. That said, the surge in USDC circulation likely reflects broader digital asset adoption rather than outright substitution.In fact, the sympathy move in Coinbase shares, up about 4% premarket following Circle’s results, suggests that investors see stablecoin growth as constructive for the broader crypto ecosystem. More USDC in circulation generally means more trading liquidity, settlement efficiency, and institutional engagement. Rather than replacing Bitcoin, stablecoins may be strengthening the infrastructure layer beneath it.Looking ahead, Circle reiterated its expectation of a 40% compound annual growth rate in USDC circulation over the cycle. For fiscal 2026, the company guided to other revenue of $150 million to $170 million, above consensus near $143 million, and an RLDC margin of 38% to 40%, roughly in line with 2025’s 39%. Adjusted operating expenses are expected to rise to $570 million to $585 million, reflecting continued investment in growth initiatives such as Arc mainnet, CPN total payment volume expansion, and momentum in EURC and USYC.One key variable remains interest rates. Reserve income benefits from higher yields on Treasuries and cash equivalents. In Q4, reserve return rates declined by 68 basis points year over year, partially offsetting the benefit from higher circulation. If rates decline meaningfully, Circle’s revenue growth could moderate unless circulation continues to expand at a rapid clip. That dynamic makes volume growth the most important long-term lever.Ultimately, the quarter demonstrated three things: strong execution, accelerating adoption, and improving operating leverage. Circle beat on EPS, revenue, EBITDA, and margins while reinforcing multi-year growth targets. The stock’s 15% rally reflects relief that the post-IPO hangover may have run its course and renewed confidence in the durability of the stablecoin model.Whether this marks a sustained re-rating will depend on regulatory follow-through, rate trajectories, and continued USDC adoption. But for now, Circle has reminded the market that in a volatile crypto world, stability—when scaled properly—can be very profitable.

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