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After spending much of December speculating whether the year-end &quot;Santa Claus Rally&quot; would materialize, equity traders may finally have witnessed the pivot they&#39;ve been waiting for.The S&amp;P 500 advanced 0.8% on Thursday, snapping a four-day losing streak, and closed with similar gains on Friday. This marks the conclusion of the final full trading week of the year.If history is any guide, the US market appears poised for further upside. According to data from Citadel Securities, since 1928, the S&amp;P 500 has risen during the last two weeks of December 75% of the time, posting an average gain of 1.3%.Despite lingering concerns regarding the long-term viability of the AI trade and elevated valuation levels, resilient economic data and corporate earnings prospects are underpinning investor confidence. Observations from Susquehanna International Group indicate that traders are aggressively bidding up call options on chipmakers and tech heavyweights, while retail enthusiasm for US equities remains undiminished.Goldman Sachs&#39; trading desk noted in a report to clients: &quot;Absent a major shock, the current seasonal strength combined with clearer positioning will be difficult to reverse.&quot;&quot;While we are not expecting a violent rebound, we see room to run from current levels through year-end,&quot; added Goldman team member Gail Hafif.Tech Sector Leads the ChargeThursday&#39;s initial rebound was catalyzed by a softer-than-expected inflation report (despite some debate over the details), which cemented expectations for further rate cuts next year. Technology stocks led the broader market, with the Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Index surging 2% and the Nasdaq 100 climbing 1.5% after five days of chop.The momentum carried into Friday, driven by significant gains in names like Micron Technology and Oracle, pushing the Nasdaq 100 up another 1%.&quot;Tech companies—specifically those tied to AI—had been under considerable pressure,&quot; noted Thomas Martin, Senior Portfolio Manager at Globalt Investments. &quot;But when Micron reported earnings and the market reacted optimistically, it fueled the sentiment that perhaps it is time to buy these names back.&quot;A Surge in Bullish Option FlowsThe rally is a welcome development for derivatives traders, who have been accumulating call options in recent days to bet on a continued tech rebound.According to Susquehanna, traders have been heavy buyers of bullish call spreads tied to Nvidia, Micron, and the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK). Simultaneously, they have been selling put options on giants like Alphabet, Nvidia, and Broadcom.Notably, the broader AI ecosystem—whether tied to the &quot;Google chain&quot; or the &quot;OpenAI chain&quot;—has seen broad-based gains over the past 48 hours.&quot;This highlights the market&#39;s confidence that any downside is limited and transitory,&quot; said Chris Murphy, Co-Head of Derivative Strategy at Susquehanna. &quot;Investors are utilizing the pullback in tech to add exposure to AI, semiconductors, and growth, rather than capitulating.&quot;Retail and Institutional Money FlowsThe broader market backdrop remains supportive. Goldman Sachs reports that investors have plowed approximately $100 billion into US equities over the past nine weeks, continuing a trend of inflows seen throughout 2025. The firm&#39;s sentiment indicator has reached its highest level since April.Retail investors—the primary engine of this year&#39;s rally—show no signs of fatigue. Data from Citadel Securities reveals that retail traders have been net buyers of call options in 32 of the past 33 weeks, the longest buying streak on record for the firm.&quot;Following a year of robust portfolio returns and record household wealth creation, retail investors are entering 2026 with high confidence and ample capital,&quot; Scott Rubner, Head of Global Sports and Entertainment (and Tactical Specialist) at Citadel Securities, wrote in a note. He added that the conditions are ripe for &quot;expanded market participation.&quot;Rubner also noted growing optimism among institutional investors, who have not only been sweeping call options across the board but are also rotating into sectors beyond big tech. Interest-rate-sensitive sectors, such as Real Estate and Industrials, have flashed strong buy signals for the second consecutive week.The Setup for a Year-End RallyAs trading volumes thin out seasonally, declining volatility is providing another tailwind. The S&amp;P 500’s 10-day realized volatility has dropped to one of its lowest levels of the year. This dynamic often forces volatility-control funds and trend-following CTAs (Commodity Trading Advisors) to increase their equity exposure.&quot;We continue to see room for further volatility compression,&quot; the Goldman trading desk stated. &quot;Lower implied volatility means systematic leverage strategies will gain more traction.&quot;The past two days of gains have served as a much-needed respite, leading more market participants to bet on the traditional &quot;Santa Claus Rally.&quot;According to the Stock Trader&#39;s Almanac, the &quot;Santa Claus Rally&quot;—technically defined as the last five trading days of the year plus the first two of January—has historically produced an average gain of 1.3% for the S&amp;P 500 since 1950.This year, that window opens next Wednesday and runs through January 5.&quot;This week&#39;s economic data has solidified the expectation that the Fed will proceed with rate cuts,&quot; said Angelo Kourkafas, Senior Global Investment Strategist at Edward Jones.While Kourkafas cautioned that some investors might look to lock in profits after a solid year, creating potential selling pressure, he concluded that the latest data &quot;likely gives the green light for this year&#39;s Santa Claus Rally.&quot;

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Wall Street Regains Its Swagger: Is the 'Santa Claus Rally' Finally Here?

In a market defined by volatility and regulatory uncertainty, Citigroup's 2025 outlook for crypto stocks stands out as a rare beacon of cautious optimism. Despite macroeconomic headwinds and sector-specific corrections, Citi's research team, led by strategists like Alex Saunders and Peter Christiansen, has identified a compelling case for strategic investment in crypto-related equities. Their analysis hinges on three pillars: the maturation of spot ETFs, regulatory clarity in the U.S., and the sector's growing integration into traditional finance (TradFi). This article unpacks Citi's rationale, focusing on sector resilience and selective growth opportunities. <h3>Market Resilience: ETFs, Regulation, and Macro Tailwinds</h3>Citi's base case for crypto stocks in 2025 is underpinned by the explosive growth of spot ETFs. By late December 2024, Bitcoin ETFs had attracted $36.4 billion in net inflows, while Ethereum ETFs added $2.4 billion, signaling a shift in institutional and retail investor behavior <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/12/19/citi-trims-crypto-stock-price-targets-after-bitcoin-s-disappointing-q4">according to Citi's analysis</a>. These products, Citi argues, are not just liquidity tools but foundational assets in a broader portfolio diversification strategy. The firm notes a beta of 1.4–1.5 between Bitcoin and equities, suggesting crypto's increasing correlation with traditional markets-a trend likely to persist as ETF adoption accelerates <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/12/19/citi-trims-crypto-stock-price-targets-after-bitcoin-s-disappointing-q4">according to Citi's analysis</a>. Regulatory developments further bolster this case. The anticipated passage of the Clarity Act, which would provide a legal framework for crypto custodians and reduce ambiguity for market participants, is a key catalyst. Citi's $143,000 base-case price target for Bitcoin within 12 months explicitly ties to this regulatory clarity, alongside ETF-driven demand <a href="https://coinpedia.org/news/bullish-citi-sets-143k-bitcoin-target-as-u-s-crypto-regulation-eases/">according to Citi's analysis</a>. Meanwhile, the U.S. election cycle has already spurred a rally in crypto markets, with analysts attributing this to expectations of a more business-friendly regulatory environment <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/12/19/citi-trims-crypto-stock-price-targets-after-bitcoin-s-disappointing-q4">according to Citi's analysis</a>. Macro factors also play a role. Citi forecasts continued support for crypto in early 2025, citing dovish central bank policies and a potential "risk-on" trade as inflation moderates. However, the firm cautions that equity volatility-particularly in tech and growth stocks-could spill over into crypto markets, creating short-term headwinds <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/12/19/citi-trims-crypto-stock-price-targets-after-bitcoin-s-disappointing-q4">according to Citi's analysis</a>. <h3>Sector Opportunities: Stablecoins, DeFi, and Strategic Picks</h3>Citi's sector analysis highlights two transformative areas: stablecoins and decentralized finance (DeFi). The firm anticipates a diversification of the stablecoin market, with innovations in cross-border trade and asset-backed tokens challenging Tether's dominance. This fragmentation, Citi argues, could reduce systemic risks and unlock new use cases for institutional players <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/12/19/citi-trims-crypto-stock-price-targets-after-bitcoin-s-disappointing-q4">according to Citi's analysis</a>. In terms of stock recommendations, Citi's top pick is Circle Financial (CRCL), the issuer of USDC. Despite the stock trading at $83.60 as of late 2025, the firm maintains a $243 price target, citing USDC's role in bridging traditional and digital asset ecosystems. Bullish (BLSH) and Coinbase (COIN) are also highlighted for their exposure to institutional adoption and ETF-driven flows. Bullish's platform, in particular, is positioned to benefit from TradFi's growing interest in crypto custody and trading infrastructure. For miners, Marathon Digital (MSTR) remains a core recommendation, albeit with a reduced price target of $325. Citi acknowledges the sector's cyclical nature but emphasizes Marathon's cost efficiency and balance sheet strength as differentiators. Riot Platforms (RIOT) is another name on the radar, though its valuation remains under pressure amid energy cost volatility. <h3>Risk Considerations: Volatility and Divergent Scenarios</h3>Citi's optimism is not without caveats. The firm outlines a bear case where Bitcoin could fall to $78,500 amid a global recession or regulatory crackdown, versus a bull case of $189,000 driven by sustained ETF inflows and macroeconomic stability <a href="https://coinpedia.org/news/bullish-citi-sets-143k-bitcoin-target-as-u-s-crypto-regulation-eases/">according to Citi's analysis</a>. These scenarios underscore the sector's inherent volatility and the importance of hedging strategies for investors. Moreover, Citi warns that crypto stocks remain highly correlated with broader market sentiment. A correction in tech or growth equities could drag down crypto-related names, even as the underlying asset class gains traction. This duality-long-term resilience versus short-term fragility-requires a nuanced approach to portfolio construction. <h3>Conclusion: Strategic Allocation in a Fragmenting Ecosystem</h3>Citi's 2025 outlook for crypto stocks is a call to action for investors willing to navigate volatility for long-term gains. By focusing on ETF-driven demand, regulatory tailwinds, and sector-specific innovations, the firm paints a picture of a maturing asset class. However, success hinges on selective exposure: stablecoins like USDC, DeFi infrastructure, and well-capitalized equities such as CRCL and BLSH offer the most compelling risk-reward profiles. As the crypto market evolves, Citi's analysis serves as a roadmap for those seeking to balance caution with conviction-a strategy that may prove critical in a year where volatility and opportunity walk hand in hand.

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What the Smart Money Is Shorting Right Now 👇<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FzBMcAWoqrg" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Short Sellers_55000bab1766178729248.jpg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/FzBMcAWoqrg&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Short Sellers_55000bab1766178729248.jpg&quot;}"></video>U.S. stocks closed higher Friday, with technology shares leading gains as investors digested shifting hedge-fund positioning and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 183.04 points, or 0.38%, to 48,134.9. The S&amp;P 500 added 59.74 points, or 0.88%, ending at 6,834.50, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 301.26 points, or 1.31%, to 23,307.6. Smaller stocks also advanced, with the Russell 2000 gaining 0.84% to 250.81.Beneath the surface, hedge funds are increasingly <a href="https://www.ainvest.com/news/hedge-fund-short-bets-tilt-consumer-stocks-hazeltree-data-2512/" target='__blank'>betting against consumer</a>-oriented companies, according to data compiled by Hazeltree, a treasury-management firm that aggregates anonymized positioning information from alternative asset managers. The shift marks a change from earlier in the year, when bearish positioning was more heavily concentrated in technology and semiconductor stocks.“Out of the 90 securities that we covered…over 40, 45% of them were related to the consumer type of industry,” said Smith, Hazeltree’s senior vice president of the Data Insights Division, in an interview with AInvest’s Capital &amp; Power. The firm’s November 2025 short-side crowdedness report tracks how many hedge funds hold short positions in individual securities across global markets.Hazeltree’s crowdedness metric focuses on participation rather than position size. “If there are 100 hedge funds [and] 99 of them are into a short position on a particular stock, we’d say that’s the highest level of crowdedness,” Smith said.Examples of crowded consumer shorts span regions, including European spirits makers such as Pernod Ricard and Campari, U.S. companies like Marriott and Campbell Soup, and Asia-Pacific firms including Oriental Land and Ajinomoto, according to Smith.The repositioning comes as investors confront what Smith described as an unusually complex backdrop, shaped by geopolitical tensions, tariff risks, artificial intelligence investment and developments in cryptocurrencies. “What we’re seeing is a slight…disturbance in the force,” he said, noting that long and short crowding have at times risen simultaneously.The Trillion-Dollar AI Buildout Wall Street Isn’t Watching 👇<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KoLkSx_GABk" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/ePlus (1)_1776d8cb1766178967620.jpg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/KoLkSx_GABk&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/ePlus (1)_1776d8cb1766178967620.jpg&quot;}"></video>

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Stocks Rise at the Close as Tech Leads, While Hedge Funds Tilt Bearish on Consumers

Paul Singer's Elliott Investment Management Inc. has secured a major legal victory in its dispute with Stronghold Investment Management, a Texas-based private equity firm. A Delaware Chancery Court judge ruled that Stronghold breached an earlier settlement agreement by failing to meet deadlines for selling assets in an oil and gas fund managed by the firm. The ruling allows Elliott to proceed with liquidating the partnerships, which it had been seeking for months. Judge Bonnie David emphasized that Stronghold's delay in selling assets violated the terms of the 2022 settlement agreement between the two firms. The court has now ordered both parties to submit a wind-down plan for the two partnerships involved in the case. The decision was a direct response to Elliott's lawsuit filed in September 2025. Elliott's legal action accused Stronghold of charging excessive expenses and refusing to liquidate the partnerships, which are known as Fund II. The firm argued that Stronghold's inaction was breaching the contract. Stronghold, meanwhile, has denied wrongdoing, claiming it delivered strong returns and that Elliott's push for liquidation would force the sale of assets at a discount, harming other investors.<h2>Why the Standoff Happened</h2>Elliott first invested with Stronghold in 2017 to support oil and gas ventures. However, the relationship began to deteriorate in 2022, leading to a legal settlement that required Stronghold to sell Elliott-related assets by the end of 2023, with a possible extension through 2024. The firm did not meet the timeline, prompting Elliott to file suit. <backtest-component code="SPY" id="strategy_001" range="3" market="169"></backtest-component>The dispute has been a focal point in recent litigation involving private equity and asset management. Stronghold has warned that the liquidation would hurt more than 100 other investors, as the firm would have to sell assets at a discount to accommodate Elliott's demands. This has led to accusations from Stronghold that Elliott is prioritizing its short-term liquidity over the broader investor base. Elliott, on the other hand, has maintained that the settlement agreement was clear and that Stronghold's delay was a violation of its terms. The firm has long built a reputation as an aggressive activist investor, often pushing for structural changes in companies to unlock value. In this case, it argues that time is of the essence and that further delays only serve to devalue the assets.<h2>What This Means for Investors</h2>The court's ruling may force a significant shift in how Stronghold manages the partnerships. If the firm fails to comply with the wind-down order, it could face legal consequences or have to accelerate asset sales. This could result in further losses for investors who were not aligned with Elliott's strategy. For Elliott, the win represents a strategic success in a long-running legal battle. The firm has previously used the Delaware courts to enforce its interests in other investments, including its well-publicized activist campaigns in major corporations. This ruling may embolden Elliott to pursue similar legal actions in the future, reinforcing its position as a formidable player in the private equity space. Stronghold has not ruled out an appeal, with its legal team indicating that the firm would consider challenging the decision immediately. The outcome of any such appeal could set a precedent for future disputes involving private equity fund liquidations and contractual obligations. <h2>Risks to the Outlook</h2>The broader market may also take note of the ruling, especially in the private equity sector. The decision highlights the risks of relying on third-party managers to adhere to agreed-upon timelines and terms. It also underscores the importance of clear contractual language when structuring such agreements. Analysts have pointed out that the case could influence how similar disputes are handled in the future. If Elliott's approach becomes more common, it could signal a shift in investor expectations when it comes to liquidity and asset management. This may pressure private equity firms to be more transparent and timely in their operations. As both parties prepare to submit their wind-down proposals, the court is expected to play a key role in overseeing the transition. The final outcome will likely depend on how well each side can demonstrate its compliance with the settlement agreement while balancing the interests of all investors.

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A growing share of hedge-fund short positions has shifted toward consumer-oriented companies, according to proprietary data compiled by <a href="https://hazeltree.com/" target='__blank'>Hazeltree,</a> a treasury-management firm that aggregates anonymized position information from alternative asset managers.What the Smart Money Is Shorting Right Now 👇🏻<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FzBMcAWoqrg" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Short Sellers_e3a3ae361766169156019.jpg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/FzBMcAWoqrg&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Short Sellers_e3a3ae361766169156019.jpg&quot;}"></video>Hazeltree&#39;s Sr. Vice President of the Data Insights Division, in an interview with AInvest&#39;s Capital &amp; Power said that the trend emerged most clearly in Hazeltree’s November 2025 “short-side crowdedness” report. It tracks how many hedge funds hold short positions in specific securities. The data suggest that consumer names have become a focal point for bearish positioning after much of the year saw greater emphasis on technology and semiconductor stocks.“Out of the 90 securities that we covered…over 40, 45% of them were related to the consumer type of industry,” said Smith. The report covers large, mid and small-cap stocks across North America, Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, with 10 securities per category and region .Hazeltree has provided treasury-management services to alternative asset managers for more than a decade. As part of that work, clients allow the firm to use their data in aggregated and anonymized form, enabling Hazeltree to publish derivative datasets that track positioning trends across the hedge-fund industry, Smith said .The company’s monthly report does not simply identify heavily shorted stocks by dollar value. Instead, it emphasizes what Smith described as “crowdedness,” a measure of how many hedge funds hold positions in a given security. “If there are 100 hedge funds [and] 99 of them are into a short position on a particular stock, we’d say that’s the highest level of crowdedness,” he said, distinguishing the concept from the absolute size of positions .<img data-json="{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Quote 6_5d987b851766166210935.jpg&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}]}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Quote 6_5d987b851766166210935.jpg" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" />In November, that crowdedness increasingly appeared in consumer-related companies across regions. Smith cited European firms such as Pernod Ricard and Campari, U.S.-based companies including Marriott and Campbell Soup, and Asia-Pacific names such as Oriental Land and Ajinomoto as examples of where hedge funds were concentrating short exposure .The shift comes amid what Smith described as an unusually uncertain investing environment. He pointed to geopolitical tensions, tariffs, developments in artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies, and broader macroeconomic questions as factors contributing to changing positioning patterns. “What we’re seeing is a slight…disturbance in the force,” Smith said, adding that long and short crowding have sometimes risen simultaneously in the same stocks, a divergence from more typical patterns in prior years .Hazeltree’s data also show evolving attitudes toward technology and AI-linked companies. Smith noted that Tesla, long a fixture near the top of crowdedness rankings, fell out of that position during the year, while other names tied to AI investment appeared. “It was a great surprise to me to see IBM coming on the top 10 a few months ago,” he said, adding that Palo Alto Networks had also featured prominently .According to Smith, hedge funds use crowdedness metrics as one input among many, including quantitative models and fundamental analysis. For other investors, the data can signal where “there’s a lot of scrutiny and a lot of pressure on share prices,” he said, though Hazeltree does not frame the report as investment advice .The firm covers roughly 15,000 global securities and tracks both physical holdings and swap positions, which Smith described as a distinguishing feature of its dataset. Access to such information, he said, is becoming broader as data flows more freely between institutional and retail segments of the market .As the year closes, Hazeltree plans to publish a year-end report summarizing trends across 2025. Smith cautioned against overconfidence in forecasting. “The only certain thing will be the level of uncertainty,” he said, adding that markets often stabilize as investors adjust to unpredictable conditions .

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