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What impact will the recent international situation have on the US stock market？

<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KoLkSx_GABk" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/MarronePlus Image_151544531766503218018.jpeg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/KoLkSx_GABk&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/MarronePlus Image_151544531766503218018.jpeg&quot;}"></video>The latest batch of U.S. <a href="https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar" target='__blank'>economic data</a> effectively closes the book on meaningful macro releases for the year, with only the Federal Reserve’s December 30 minutes still ahead—and those are both dated and backward-looking. While much of today’s data is also backward-looking, particularly the third-quarter GDP figures, it nonetheless reinforces a central theme that markets have been grappling with for weeks: the U.S. economy is still performing from a position of strength. That reality may <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html" target='__blank'>delay the timing</a> of the first Federal Reserve rate cut, but it does not undermine the broader bull case for equities.At the headline level, third-quarter GDP surprised to the upside, printing at a 4.3% annualized pace versus expectations closer to 3.3%. Final sales rose 4.6%, while consumer spending increased 3.5%, underscoring that demand remained robust through the end of the summer. While these figures are backward-looking, they confirm that the economy entered the fourth quarter with meaningful momentum rather than fragility. That matters because it directly challenges the notion that the Federal Reserve needs to rush toward easing in response to economic weakness.The inflation components of the GDP report were less comforting, though not alarming. The GDP deflator rose 3.7%, well above expectations near 2.7%, signaling firmer price pressures embedded in overall growth. By contrast, the PCE price index and core PCE were both in line with expectations at 2.8% and 2.9%, respectively. In other words, inflation is not collapsing—but neither is it reaccelerating in a way that forces the Fed’s hand. The net effect is to keep policymakers cautious and reinforce a “higher for longer, but not restrictive forever” posture.Durable goods data added nuance to the picture. Headline orders fell 2.2% in October, worse than the expected 1.5% decline, but this weakness was almost entirely driven by transportation equipment. Non-defense aircraft and parts orders plunged more than 30%, reflecting the volatility inherent in that category rather than a broad-based slowdown in demand. Boeing, for example, reported just 15 aircraft orders in October compared to 96 in September. Strip out transportation, and orders actually rose 0.2%. More importantly for the growth outlook, non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft—a key proxy for business investment—increased 0.5%, slightly above consensus, while shipments rose a solid 0.7%. Those internals suggest that corporate capital spending, particularly in technology- and AI-related areas, remains intact.Industrial production further supported the “steady, not stalling” narrative. Output rose 0.2% in November after a 0.1% increase in October. Manufacturing was flat, but gains in mining and utilities lifted the overall index. On a year-over-year basis, industrial production is up 2.5%, with manufacturing output nearly 2% higher. Capacity utilization remains below long-run averages, signaling that the economy is not overheating even as growth remains resilient.Consumer confidence, meanwhile, offered an important forward-looking check on the strength implied by the hard data. While confidence readings can be volatile month to month, the broader takeaway is that sentiment has stabilized rather than deteriorated meaningfully. Consumers appear cautious but not alarmed, consistent with an environment in which labor markets remain firm and wage growth continues to offset higher prices for many households. That matters for markets because consumer confidence acts as a bridge between backward-looking GDP data and forward-looking spending behavior. There is little in the latest readings to suggest an imminent retrenchment in consumption.Taken together, the data has meaningful implications for Federal Reserve policy expectations. Historically, the Fed has rarely acted unless markets assign roughly a 60% probability or higher to a policy move. According to aggregated CME FedWatch data, the probability threshold for the next rate cut is no longer met for the March meeting. Instead, expectations have shifted decisively toward the April 29 meeting, where probabilities now clear that 60% bar. The March-versus-April debate is still alive, but today’s data tilts the balance toward patience rather than urgency.Markets initially reacted in predictable fashion. Treasury yields moved higher following the strong GDP print and firmer inflation signals, pressuring equities in early trading. That move, however, proved fleeting. As the session progressed, investors reframed the data not as a threat but as confirmation that the economy does not require emergency easing. Yields eased back, and equities quickly recovered their losses. This pattern highlights an important shift in market psychology: strength in economic data is no longer reflexively bearish for stocks.The broader backdrop remains supportive. The Treasury curve continues to bull-steepen, driven primarily by expectations for eventual easing rather than fears of runaway inflation. Liquidity conditions are gradually improving, and short-term yields have been under pressure as markets look ahead to 2026. In that context, a delay in the first rate cut does not equate to tighter financial conditions—especially when the delay is driven by economic resilience rather than policy restraint.Ultimately, the key takeaway is straightforward. Rate cuts driven by economic distress are not bullish. Rate cuts delayed because the economy is strong are not a problem. Today’s data reinforces the latter scenario. The idea that the Fed must cut rates because the economy is weakening should not supersede the more constructive reality that growth remains healthy. For equity investors, that is a preferable backdrop. While the timing of the first cut may slide from March to late April, the underlying message is one of durability, not deterioration—and that remains a net positive for markets heading into year-end.

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The Fed Can Hit Pause: Red-Hot GDP Pushes Rate-Cut Hopes to April—but Stocks Don’t Care

The U.S. economy expanded at a much stronger-than-expected pace in the third quarter, powered by resilient consumer spending, higher government outlays, and a surge in exports, according to a delayed Commerce Department report released Tuesday.Gross domestic product rose at a 4.3% annualized rate from July through September, accelerating from 3.8% in the second quarter and marking the fastest growth in two years. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones and FactSet had expected growth closer to 3%–3.2%.Consumer spending, which accounts for roughly 70% of economic activity, increased at a 3.5% annual pace, up from 2.5% in the prior quarter. Government consumption and investment rose 2.2% after contracting in the second quarter, supported by higher state and local spending and increased federal defense outlays. Exports jumped 8.8%, while imports fell 4.7%, providing an additional lift to headline growth.Private business investment declined 0.3%, dragged down by weakness in housing and nonresidential structures such as offices and warehouses. However, the pullback was far milder than the 13.8% plunge seen in the second quarter, helping to stabilize overall growth.A key measure of underlying demand, real final sales to private domestic purchasers—which excludes volatile components such as exports, inventories, and government spending—grew at a 3% annual rate, slightly faster than in the previous quarter. Federal Reserve officials closely monitor this gauge for signals of sustainable consumer demand.Inflation, however, remained elevated. The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed&#39;s preferred inflation measure, rose at a 2.8% annual rate in the third quarter, up from 2.1% previously. Core PCE inflation, which strips out food and energy, accelerated to 2.9% from 2.6%. A broader chain-weighted price index climbed 3.8%, well above forecasts, underscoring persistent price pressures.The strength of growth contrasted with lingering inflation concerns, complicating the outlook for monetary policy. Economists noted that sticky inflation could reduce the likelihood of a near-term rate cut, even as the Federal Reserve remains concerned about a cooling labor market.Elsewhere in the report, corporate profits surged by $166.1 billion, or 4.2%, a sharp rebound from the modest $6.8 billion increase recorded in the second quarter.The GDP release had originally been scheduled for late October but was postponed due to the government shutdown. It serves as the first of three estimates for third-quarter growth, with a final revision to be released later.

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U.S. Economy Grows Much Better Than Expected in Q3 as Solid Spending and Tariff Easing Support Growth

The Trillion-Dollar AI Buildout Wall Street Isn’t Watching 👇<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KoLkSx_GABk" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/ePlus (1)_4e6da89a1766499761829.jpg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/KoLkSx_GABk&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/ePlus (1)_4e6da89a1766499761829.jpg&quot;}"></video>U.S. stocks opened mixed Tuesday morning as investors weighed a fresh surge in copper prices, resilient economic data, and persistent pressure from higher long-term interest rates.At the opening bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 49.21 points, or 0.10%, to 48,313.5, while the S&amp;P 500 rose 2.84 points, or 0.04%, to 6,881.33. The Nasdaq Composite added 12.25 points, or 0.05%, to 23,441.1, and the Russell 2000 fell 0.34% to 252.71, reflecting continued underperformance among smaller-cap stocks.Commodity markets were more decisive. Copper prices vaulted to a fresh all-time high above $12,000 a metric ton, extending a rally that has lifted prices by more than one-third this year. Prices rose as much as 1% to $12,044 a ton on the London Metal Exchange, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-23/copper-hits-12-000-for-first-time-as-tariff-trade-upends-market?srnd=homepage-americas" target='__blank'>according to Bloomberg,</a> as severe mine outages and trade dislocations collided with rising demand.Analysts cited by Bloomberg warned the copper market could face its largest supply deficit in more than two decades next year, with demand expected to exceed supply by roughly 600,000 tons.Energy and precious metals also moved higher. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.28% to $58.17 a barrel, while gold climbed 0.83% to $4,506.70 an ounce, as investors sought hedges amid rising policy uncertainty.Market volatility edged up modestly. The CBOE Volatility Index rose 2.13% to 14.38, though it remained well below levels typically associated with market stress. Meanwhile, Bitcoin slid 2.52% to $87,701.51, extending recent losses in the cryptocurrency complex.On the macroeconomic front, recent growth data underscored the economy’s momentum. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that <a href="https://www.bea.gov/" target='__blank'>real gross domestic product expanded</a> at a 4.3% annualized rate in the third quarter of 2025, accelerating from 3.8% in the prior quarter, driven by stronger consumer spending, exports, and government outlays.Still, longer-term risks remain tied to interest rates. Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, said fiscal and inflation concerns are keeping upward pressure on long-term yields across major economies, warning that rates are likely to remain “higher for longer,” a backdrop that continues to weigh on equity valuations.<img data-json="{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/122325-Chart_v2_1b3f0de41766500592130.jpg&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}]}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/122325-Chart_v2_1b3f0de41766500592130.jpg" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" />In corporate trends, Wedbush Securities highlighted strong late-year digital engagement for major internet platforms, noting accelerating web and app traffic at Amazon, Booking Holdings, and Uber, while Lyft’s engagement lagged expectations heading into the fourth quarter.As markets head toward 2026 investors are balancing robust growth signals against rising commodity prices, stubbornly high rates, and renewed trade-policy uncertainty, forces that could keep volatility elevated into 2026.

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U.S. Stocks Edge Higher at the Open as Copper Surges, Volatility Ticks Up

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.3 percent in the third quarter of 2025 (July, August, and September), according to the initial estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.8 percent. The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

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